新造集装箱船舶价格波动规律及投资时机研究
发布时间：2018-09-04 12:27
【摘要】：航运业历来是一个高风险的行业,同时它也是一个资本密集型行业。对于集装箱班轮公司来说,集装箱船舶是其主要资产,每一次的船舶投资活动都会对企业产生重大影响。特别是新造船,融资投资额巨大,回收期长,其造船价格也随着航运市场的波动不断变化,班轮公司造船投资决策的成败与否经常关系到整个企业的生死存亡,因此,对于新造集装箱船舶价格和投资时机选择的研究至关重要。 本文首先对新造集装箱船舶市场进行了定性的研究,介绍了集装箱船舶及其发展趋势,分析了新造集装箱船市场的基础特征和波动机理,详细分析了影响新造集装箱船舶价格主要因素,最后对新造集装箱船舶市场的现状和未来发展趋势进行了分析。然后综合资产定价法,供应-需求法和成本法中的价格决定因素,确定了二手船价格,期租租金,新船订单与船队规模比率,造船成本,汇率作为影响新造集装箱船舶价格的主要因素,采用计量经济学方法对它们的相关关系进行了动态分析,发现它们之间存在长期的协整关系,在此基础上建立了向量误差修正模型,很好地反映了新造集装箱船舶价格与主要影响因素之间的动态关系及变化规律。 在研究新造集装箱船舶价格的基础上,分析了新造船价格与期租租金之间的内在理论和协整关系,借用股票市盈率思想,建立了价格／收益比率的移动平均投资时机模型,并验证了其适用性。通过历史数据模拟可以看出,向量误差修正模型能准确地描述新造集装箱船舶价格的波动规律,投资时机模型也准确反映了最佳的新造船投资时机,为航运公司进行新造集装箱船舶价格研究和作出投资决策提供理论支持。
[Abstract]:The shipping industry has always been a high-risk industry, but it is also a capital-intensive industry. For container liner companies, container ships are their main assets, and every time the ship investment activities will have a significant impact on the enterprise. Especially for new shipbuilding, the financing investment is huge, the payback period is long, and the shipbuilding price will follow. As the fluctuation of shipping market changes constantly, the success or failure of liner company's shipbuilding investment decision is often related to the survival of the whole enterprise. Therefore, it is very important to study the price and investment timing of new container ships.
Firstly, this paper makes a qualitative study of the new container ship market, introduces the container ship and its development trend, analyzes the basic characteristics and fluctuation mechanism of the new container ship market, analyzes in detail the main factors affecting the price of the new container ship, and finally analyzes the current situation and future development trend of the new container ship market. Then the price determinants of asset pricing, supply-demand method and cost method are synthesized to determine the second-hand ship price, term rent, the ratio of new ship order to fleet size, shipbuilding cost and exchange rate as the main factors affecting the price of new container ships. The econometric method is used to analyze their correlation. The dynamic analysis shows that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between them. On this basis, a vector error correction model is established, which reflects the dynamic relationship between the price of newly-built container ships and the main influencing factors.
On the basis of studying the price of newly-built container ships, this paper analyzes the inherent theory and cointegration relationship between the price of new-built container ships and the term rent, borrows the idea of stock price-earnings ratio, establishes the moving average investment opportunity model of the price-earnings ratio, and verifies its applicability. The model can accurately describe the fluctuation law of the new container ship price, and the investment opportunity model also accurately reflects the best investment opportunity for the new container ship.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F550;F224
[Abstract]:The shipping industry has always been a high-risk industry, but it is also a capital-intensive industry. For container liner companies, container ships are their main assets, and every time the ship investment activities will have a significant impact on the enterprise. Especially for new shipbuilding, the financing investment is huge, the payback period is long, and the shipbuilding price will follow. As the fluctuation of shipping market changes constantly, the success or failure of liner company's shipbuilding investment decision is often related to the survival of the whole enterprise. Therefore, it is very important to study the price and investment timing of new container ships.
Firstly, this paper makes a qualitative study of the new container ship market, introduces the container ship and its development trend, analyzes the basic characteristics and fluctuation mechanism of the new container ship market, analyzes in detail the main factors affecting the price of the new container ship, and finally analyzes the current situation and future development trend of the new container ship market. Then the price determinants of asset pricing, supply-demand method and cost method are synthesized to determine the second-hand ship price, term rent, the ratio of new ship order to fleet size, shipbuilding cost and exchange rate as the main factors affecting the price of new container ships. The econometric method is used to analyze their correlation. The dynamic analysis shows that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between them. On this basis, a vector error correction model is established, which reflects the dynamic relationship between the price of newly-built container ships and the main influencing factors.
On the basis of studying the price of newly-built container ships, this paper analyzes the inherent theory and cointegration relationship between the price of new-built container ships and the term rent, borrows the idea of stock price-earnings ratio, establishes the moving average investment opportunity model of the price-earnings ratio, and verifies its applicability. The model can accurately describe the fluctuation law of the new container ship price, and the investment opportunity model also accurately reflects the best investment opportunity for the new container ship.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F550;F224
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