高铁快运需求分析及开行方案设计研究

发布时间：2018-09-10 17:03

【摘要】：随着"十三五"规划的全面推进,我国经济已经逐步迈入新常态阶段,经济结构进一步调整;供给侧改革在各个行业推行,轻型化、小批量、多批次的高附加值货物运输需求增长迅速。与此同时,我国高速铁路建设进一步加快,将在未来建成"八纵八横"高速铁路网,这给新时期铁路参与到高附加值货物运输竞争,全面开展高铁快运业务创造了良好的基础条件。在上述的背景下,为了给铁路部门提供开展高铁快运业务提供参考,更好的服务经济建设,本文以需求分析和开行方案设计两个紧密结合的问题为切入点来研究高铁快运,并以长三角高铁网络为实际案例进行了分析,具体从以下几个方面进行了研究和探讨。(1)高铁快运需求分析定性分析高铁快运的市场,总结高铁快运经济技术特点和经营品类,提出高铁快运货量的预测思路,设计组合预测模型、高铁快运货物分担率Logit模型、高附加值货物OD分布双约束重力预测模型、高铁快运诱增货量预测模型,全面系统地预测高铁快运的需求。(2)高铁快运列车开行方案设计设计高铁快运直达列车和中途作业列车两种开行方式,在此基础上提出开行方案思路,以运输需求满足程度、运输企业效益和货主满意度为目标函数,构建多目标开行方案模型,根据高铁实际情况列出约束条件,最后设计了最短路算法、线性加权法进行求解。(3)以长三角高铁网络为例进行案例分析以长三角地区为案例,构建了长三角高铁快运网络,按照需求预测部分的模型对快运网络节点货量进行了预测,得出OD车流表,并设计了长三角高铁快运列车开行方案。
[Abstract]:With the comprehensive promotion of the 13th Five-Year Plan, China's economy has gradually entered the new normal stage, and the economic structure has been further adjusted; supply-side reforms have been carried out in various industries, light and in small quantities. The demand for multi-batches of high-value-added goods is growing rapidly. At the same time, the construction of high-speed railways in China will be further accelerated, and the "eighth vertical and eighth horizontal" high-speed railway network will be built in the future, which will give the railways in the new period the participation in the competition for the transport of goods with high added value. The development of high-speed rail express transport business has created good basic conditions. Under the above background, in order to provide a reference for railway departments to carry out high-speed rail express transport business and better service economy construction, this paper studies high-speed rail express transportation from the point of view of the two closely combined problems of demand analysis and operation scheme design. Taking the Yangtze River Delta high-speed rail network as a practical case, the paper studies and discusses the following aspects. (1) the demand analysis of high-speed rail express qualitatively analyzes the market of high-speed rail express, summarizes the economic and technical characteristics and operating categories of high-speed rail express transportation. This paper puts forward the forecasting thought of the quantity of high-speed rail express transportation, the design of combined forecasting model, the Logit model of freight share rate of high-speed rail express transportation, the OD distribution double constraint gravity prediction model of high value-added goods, the prediction model of high speed express transportation induced quantity increase. Comprehensive and systematic Prediction of the demand for High-speed Rail Express. (2) the design of high-speed rail express train operation scheme; the design of high-speed rail express direct train and midway train operation; on the basis of this, the train of thought of operation plan is put forward to meet the transportation demand. The benefit of transportation enterprises and the satisfaction degree of cargo owners are taken as objective functions to construct a multi-objective operation plan model. According to the actual conditions of high-speed rail, the constraints are listed, and the shortest path algorithm is designed. (3) taking the Yangtze River Delta high-speed rail network as an example, the paper constructs the Yangtze River Delta high-speed rail express transportation network, and forecasts the node volume according to the model of demand forecasting part. The OD train flow meter is obtained, and the operation scheme of Yangtze River Delta High Speed Rail Express train is designed.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F532;F259.2;U294.1

【参考文献】