交通运输科技发展规划评估研究

发布时间：2018-10-15 14:55

【摘要】：交通运输科技发展规划指对其规划期内的交通运输科技发展的指导方针、发展目标、主要任务、保障措施等作出详尽规定的文件。对交通运输科技发展规划进行评估,主要目的是全面了解规划实施的进展程度和质量效果,分析规划中存在的问题,找出解决问题的方法,并为后续交通运输科技发展规划的编制提供依据。目前对交通运输科技发展规划的评估,大多只针对交通运输科技发展规划的立项评估,而对规划的中期评估和规划完成后的整体评估研究较少,鉴于社会经济发展对规划评估的迫切需求,建立一套完整的交通运输科技发展规划评估指标体系以及评估模型具有十分重要的意义。首先,本文阐述了交通运输科技发展规划的基本理论。交通运输科技发展规划包含创新能力建设、重大科技研发、成果推广与应用和标准化建设四大任务；说明了交通运输科技规划创新性、风险性、多样性、实用性的特点；交通运输科技发展规划执行的影响因素,包括规划原目标设定的合理性、规划执行的外部环境、规划执行的内部环境三大方面。原规划目标中落后于现有科技发展状态的要及时中止、撤销,过于超前的则需适度降低,内部要素包括人力、物力、财力、信息资源四大要素,外部环境包括科技、经济、市场、政策四大环境要素；对评估的流程也做了详细说明。其次,建立交通运输科技发展规划评估的指标体系。根据交通运输科技的任务和影响规划执行的因素,构建了交通运输科技发展规划评估指标体系,从创新能力建设、重大科技研发、成果推广应用、标准化建设四个方面设置,对每个方面的指标又从规划进展类和质量效果类两个维度进行区分。本文对每个指标的含义进行了解释,并且详细说明了指标的计算方法及评分标准。这是本文的核心部分,也是创新点之一。最后,介绍了交通运输科技发展规划评估模型。指标权重的确定采用层次分析法在MATLAB软件中编程实现,运用灰色模糊模型对交通运输科技发展规划的评估指标体系进行评价。本文对公路水路交通运输“十一五”科技发展规划为例说明评估的全过程,该规划在科技研发方面的得分值最高,在标准化建设方面的得分值最低,对此,本文也提出了相关建议。
[Abstract]:The development plan of transportation science and technology refers to the detailed documents for the development of transportation science and technology during the planning period, such as guidelines, development objectives, main tasks, safeguard measures, etc. The main purpose of evaluating the development plan of transportation science and technology is to comprehensively understand the progress and quality effect of the implementation of the plan, analyze the problems existing in the plan, and find out how to solve the problem. And provides the basis for the following transportation science and technology development plan compilation. At present, most of the evaluations of the development plan of transportation technology are focused on the evaluation of the establishment of the plan for the development of transport science and technology, while the mid-term assessment of the planning and the overall assessment after the completion of the plan are less studied. In view of the urgent need of social and economic development for planning evaluation, it is of great significance to establish a complete evaluation index system and evaluation model for scientific and technological development planning of transportation. First of all, this paper expounds the basic theory of transportation science and technology development planning. The development plan of transportation science and technology includes four major tasks: innovation ability construction, major scientific and technological research and development, achievement popularization and application and standardization construction, which illustrates the characteristics of innovation, risk, diversity and practicability of transportation science and technology planning. The factors influencing the implementation of the development plan of transportation science and technology include the rationality of the original goal setting, the external environment of the planning and implementation, and the internal environment of the planning and implementation. Those that lag behind the existing state of scientific and technological development in the original planning objectives should be suspended in time, withdrawn, and those that are too advanced need to be reduced moderately. The internal elements include human, material, financial, and information resources. The external environment includes science, technology and economy. Market, the four environmental elements of policy; the evaluation process is also described in detail. Second, the establishment of transportation science and technology development planning evaluation index system. According to the task of transportation science and technology and the factors influencing the implementation of the plan, the evaluation index system of the development plan of transportation science and technology is constructed, which is set up from four aspects: innovation ability construction, major scientific and technological research and development, promotion and application of achievements, and standardization construction. The indicators of each aspect are distinguished from the two dimensions of planning progress class and quality effect class. In this paper, the meaning of each index is explained, and the calculation method and scoring standard of the index are explained in detail. This is the core of this article, but also one of the innovative points. Finally, the evaluation model of transportation science and technology development planning is introduced. The index weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) program in MATLAB software, and the grey fuzzy model is used to evaluate the evaluation index system of transportation science and technology development planning. This paper illustrates the whole process of evaluation for the "11th Five-Year Plan" of highway and waterway transportation. The plan has the highest score in R & D and the lowest in standardization construction. This article also puts forward the related suggestion.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F512.1

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