港口扩张均衡问题研究

发布时间：2018-10-23 16:14

【摘要】：随着经济的持续增长,中国港口获得了前所未有的发展,中国投巨资建设了大量的大型化、专业化码头。但是,在中国港口大建设、大发展的同时,“岸线港口化”问题也日益凸显。很多人认为中国港口面临着重复建设、同质化竞争、产能过剩等问题。尽管对大规模投资建设港口的合理性存在质疑,但中国投资港口的趋势并没有减缓。因为在航运景气期,港口能力仍然满足不了货运需求,更主要的是地方政府对发展港口热情高。自本世纪初港口管理权力下放后,地方政府对港口发展拥有更大的决策权,港口发展水平对地方政府行政绩效的贡献更加突出。可以说地方政府对政绩的追求是导致近年来港口规模持续扩张的根本推动力。基于目前中国港口发展受地方政府大力推进的现实,本文拟研究在地方政府政绩观的驱动下,港口停止大规模投资、结束规模扩张的临界条件和最终所处的均衡状态。研究成果希望有助于深刻认识中国港口发展的特殊性,为地方政府科学指引港口发展提供依据。本文首先界定了在地方行政长官考虑任期业绩情况下的港口投资扩容的收益类别,明确了各项收益计算的时效性,研究各项收益的计量方法；然后分别研究无竞争时单个港口停止投资的临界条件和有竞争时多个港口停止投资的临界条件和最终的均衡状态；最后将该方法应用于大连市和营口市,探讨两城市的港口规模扩张的动态过程,以及停止投资、结束扩张的时机和最后的均衡状态。研究结果表明,港口投资扩容对地方行政长官政绩的贡献显著,本文的方法可用于中国其他区域港口城市的竞争研究。
[Abstract]:With the continuous growth of economy, Chinese ports have achieved unprecedented development, and China has invested a lot of money to build a large number of large-scale, specialized wharves. However, with the great development of port construction in China, the problem of shoreline port becomes increasingly prominent. Many people believe that China's ports face repeated construction, homogeneous competition, overcapacity and other problems. Although there are doubts about the rationality of large-scale investment in port construction, the trend of investment in ports in China has not slowed down. Because in the shipping boom, port capacity still can not meet freight demand, more importantly, local governments are enthusiastic about port development. Since the decentralization of port management at the beginning of this century, local governments have more decision-making power on port development, and the level of port development has made a more prominent contribution to the administrative performance of local governments. It can be said that the pursuit of local government performance is the fundamental driving force leading to the continuous expansion of port scale in recent years. Based on the reality that the development of ports in China is vigorously promoted by local governments, this paper intends to study the critical conditions and equilibrium state of the port to stop large-scale investment and end the expansion of scale, driven by the local government's view of achievements. It is hoped that the research results will help to understand the particularity of port development in China and provide the basis for local governments to guide port development scientifically. Firstly, this paper defines the income categories of port investment expansion under the condition that the local administrator considers the performance of the term of office, clarifies the timeliness of each income calculation, and studies the measurement methods of each income. Then the critical conditions of stopping investment of single port without competition and the critical condition and equilibrium state of stopping investment of multiple ports with competition are studied respectively. Finally, the method is applied to Dalian and Yingkou. This paper probes into the dynamic process of port scale expansion in the two cities, as well as the stopping of investment, the time to end expansion and the final equilibrium state. The results show that the expansion of port investment contributes significantly to the achievements of local administrators, and this method can be used to study the competition of port cities in other regions of China.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F552

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