基于非集计理论的交通需求管理价格策略评价研究

发布时间：2018-10-31 14:13

【摘要】：价格策略是交通需求管理的重要措施，它通过将交通成本内部化，影响居民的交通出行行为，优化城市交通结构，均衡交通需求分布，改善城市交通状况，提高交通资源分配效率和保证分配的公平性，是保证城市交通可持续发展的有效方案。制定价格策略需要预测和评价策略的设施效果，本文基于非集计模型建立价格策略评价方法，为交通管理策略的制定提供依据。本文首先分析了交通需求管理价格策略产生的背景、实施的原理和常用价格策略的作用、特点以及可以取得的效果，说明了价格策略如何提高交通系统运行效率。其次，根据价格策略的特征，应用非集计理论建立了价格策略评价的框架和流程，针对建立的模型说明了如何计算和标定相关参数，同时还将MNL模型描述为一个变分不等式，运用隐函数存在定理建立灵敏度分析模型，用以评估选择概率对特征变量的对应关系、寻找对选择概率影响最大的变量。然后，选取交通拥堵收费和停车收费作为交通优化价格策略，，研究交通优化价格策略的评价指标、框架和流程，运用非集计方法建立交通优化价格策略的评价体系。最后，将交通优化价格策略评价模型用于张家界市的交通管理中，运用MNL模型建立交通优化价格策略可接受度模型、预期实施效果模型和价格策略对交通方式分担率影响模型，利用张家界市SP调查和RP调查融合数据，用SPSS13.0软件对模型进行参数标定和检验，并用灵敏度分析方法对结果进行分析，再运用集计技术确定群体对各选择肢的选择概率，用灵敏度分析方法确定拥堵收费和停车收费在张家界市施行的费率阈值。本文利用非集计模型建立的价格策略评价模型以及灵敏度分析方法可以应用于交通需求管理价格策略规划的制定，为交通管理精细化、科技化提供理论支撑。
[Abstract]:Price strategy is an important measure of traffic demand management. By internalizing the transportation cost, it affects the residents' travel behavior, optimizes the urban traffic structure, balances the distribution of traffic demand, and improves the urban traffic situation. It is an effective scheme to ensure the sustainable development of urban traffic by improving the efficiency of traffic resource allocation and ensuring the fairness of traffic allocation. The establishment of price strategy needs to predict and evaluate the facility effect of the strategy. In this paper, based on the disaggregate model, the pricing strategy evaluation method is established to provide the basis for the formulation of traffic management strategy. This paper first analyzes the background of the price strategy of traffic demand management, the principle of implementation, the function of common price strategy, the characteristics and the effect that can be achieved, and explains how the price strategy can improve the efficiency of transportation system. Secondly, according to the characteristics of price strategy, the framework and flow of price policy evaluation are established by using disaggregate theory, and how to calculate and calibrate the relevant parameters is explained for the established model. At the same time, the MNL model is described as a variational inequality. The sensitivity analysis model is established by using implicit function existence theorem to evaluate the correspondence of selection probability to feature variables and to find the variables that have the greatest influence on the selection probability. Then, traffic congestion charge and parking charge are selected as traffic optimization pricing strategy, the evaluation index, framework and process of traffic optimization price strategy are studied, and the evaluation system of traffic optimization price strategy is established by using disaggregate method. Finally, the traffic optimization pricing strategy evaluation model is applied to the traffic management of Zhangjiajie city. The MNL model is used to establish the acceptable model of the traffic optimization price strategy, and the expected effect model and the price strategy influence model on the traffic mode share rate. Using the fusion data of SP survey and RP survey in Zhangjiajie City, the model was calibrated and tested by SPSS13.0 software, the results were analyzed by sensitivity analysis method, and the selection probability of each selected limb was determined by means of set meter technique. The sensitivity analysis method is used to determine the threshold value of congestion charge and parking charge in Zhangjiajie city. In this paper, the price policy evaluation model based on disaggregate model and the sensitivity analysis method can be applied to the formulation of price policy planning for traffic demand management, which provides theoretical support for the refinement of traffic management and science and technology.
【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F505;F224

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