公交分时定价下居民出发时间选择意向研究
发布时间：2018-11-17 10:59
【摘要】：随着经济发展和城市化进程的加快,城市交通压力越来越大,特别是高峰时期的拥堵问题尤为突出。公交作为城市交通的主要载体,也是城市居民上下班的主要地面交通工具,公交早晚高峰的拥挤状况非常明显。国外理论研究和实验经验均证明实行分时定价能够较好地转移高峰需求,提高交通工具非高峰时期的利用率,达到“削峰填谷”的作用。而目前国内公交暂未有实行分时定价的实例,为充分发挥票价杠杆作用,在国内对公交实行分时定价进行试探性研究具有一定的现实意义和重要性。 本文在阅读了大量文献后发现分时定价的研究一般都集中在实施情况对比分析、定价模型研究和选择结果分析,对分时定价下居民出发时间选择的影响机理以及影响因素间的内在关系研究较少。故本文从研究公交分时定价下居民出发时间意向影响因素的角度出发,从下面几点展开研究： 1、通过文献分析得到居民出发时间客观影响因素大致总结为六类,同时引入了社会心理学中比较有影响力的也能较好预测行为和解释行为的计划行为理论,在该理论基础上结合出发时间客观影响因素提出了公交分时定价下居民出发时间意向概念模型以及基本假设。 2、以成都公交为数据调查对象,通过预调查和正式调查2个阶段,对公交早高峰出行人群的实际行为和公交分时定价下的行为意向进行了数据采集,得到了成都市公交早高峰出行人群的出行特征,并进行了统计分析。 3、调查数据通过信度和效度分析后,运用SPSS19.0软件的因子分析对居民出发时间选择客观因素进行分析,提取了票价感觉阈限、个人及经济特征2个特征因子,接着运用Amos17.0对这2个因子以及计划行为理论的4个因子进行了效度检验,最终确定了建立结构方程模型的6个因子,分别是出发时间意向、态度、主观规范、知觉行为控制、票价感觉阂限、个人及经济特征。 4、基于调查数据的因子分析和效度检验结果,根据概念模型建立了公交分时定价下居民出发时间意向结构方程模型,运用Amos17.0对模型进行拟合与修正,最终得到了公交分时定价下居民出发时间意向概念模型,结果显示公交分时定价下居民出发时间影响的直接因素为行为态度和知觉行为控制,而主观规范对行为意向未产生直接影响,而是通过影响行为态度和知觉行为控制间接影响行为意向,证实了计划行为理论能够较好的解释出发时间意向,但未能完全解释需要进一步扩展。 通过研究的结果和启示对公交实行分时定价提出了相关的建议,可以为公交公司实施分时定价政策提供一定的决策参考。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and the acceleration of urbanization, the pressure of urban traffic is increasing, especially the problem of congestion during the peak period. As the main carrier of urban traffic, bus is also the main ground transportation for urban residents to commute to and from work. Foreign theoretical research and experimental experience have proved that time-sharing pricing can better transfer peak demand, improve the utilization rate of vehicles during off-peak period, and achieve the function of "cutting peak and filling valley". At present, there are no examples of time-sharing pricing in China. In order to give full play to the leverage of fares, it is of practical significance and importance to tentatively study the time-sharing pricing of public transport in China. After reading a lot of literature, this paper finds that the research of time-sharing pricing is generally focused on comparative analysis of implementation, pricing model and analysis of selection results. There are few studies on the influence mechanism of residents' departure time choice and the internal relationship between the factors under time-sharing pricing. Therefore, from the point of view of studying the influencing factors of residents' departure time intention under the time-sharing pricing of public transport, this paper starts the research from the following points: 1, through the literature analysis, the objective factors of residents' departure time can be summarized into six categories. At the same time, it introduces the theory of planning behavior, which is more influential in social psychology and can better predict and explain behavior. On the basis of this theory, the conceptual model and the basic assumptions of residents' departure time intention under the time-sharing pricing of public transport are put forward in combination with the objective factors of departure time. 2. Taking Chengdu bus as the data survey object, through the two stages of pre-investigation and formal investigation, the actual behavior of the public transport rush travel crowd and the behavior intention under the bus-hour pricing are collected. In this paper, the travel characteristics of the morning rush trip of Chengdu bus are obtained, and the statistical analysis is carried out. 3. After the reliability and validity analysis of the survey data, the objective factors of residents' departure time were analyzed by factor analysis of SPSS19.0 software, and the two characteristic factors of fare perception threshold, individual and economic characteristics were extracted. Then the validity of the two factors and the four factors of the planning behavior theory are tested by using Amos17.0, and the six factors of establishing the structural equation model are determined, which are the intention of departure time, attitude, subjective criterion, respectively. Perceptual behavior control, fare threshold, personal and economic characteristics. 4. Based on the result of factor analysis and validity test of survey data, according to the concept model, the structure equation model of residents' departure time is established, and the model is fitted and modified by Amos17.0. Finally, the conceptual model of residents' departure time intention is obtained. The results show that the direct factors of the residents' departure time under the bus time sharing pricing are behavior attitude and perceptual behavior control. But subjective norms have no direct influence on behavior intention, but indirectly influence behavior intention by influencing behavior attitude and perceptual behavior control, which proves that planning behavior theory can better explain the intention of departure time. However, the need for further expansion is not fully explained. Through the research results and enlightenment, the paper puts forward the relevant suggestions to implement the time-sharing pricing of public transport, which can provide a certain decision reference for the bus companies to implement the time-sharing pricing policy.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U491.17;F572
本文编号：2337536
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and the acceleration of urbanization, the pressure of urban traffic is increasing, especially the problem of congestion during the peak period. As the main carrier of urban traffic, bus is also the main ground transportation for urban residents to commute to and from work. Foreign theoretical research and experimental experience have proved that time-sharing pricing can better transfer peak demand, improve the utilization rate of vehicles during off-peak period, and achieve the function of "cutting peak and filling valley". At present, there are no examples of time-sharing pricing in China. In order to give full play to the leverage of fares, it is of practical significance and importance to tentatively study the time-sharing pricing of public transport in China. After reading a lot of literature, this paper finds that the research of time-sharing pricing is generally focused on comparative analysis of implementation, pricing model and analysis of selection results. There are few studies on the influence mechanism of residents' departure time choice and the internal relationship between the factors under time-sharing pricing. Therefore, from the point of view of studying the influencing factors of residents' departure time intention under the time-sharing pricing of public transport, this paper starts the research from the following points: 1, through the literature analysis, the objective factors of residents' departure time can be summarized into six categories. At the same time, it introduces the theory of planning behavior, which is more influential in social psychology and can better predict and explain behavior. On the basis of this theory, the conceptual model and the basic assumptions of residents' departure time intention under the time-sharing pricing of public transport are put forward in combination with the objective factors of departure time. 2. Taking Chengdu bus as the data survey object, through the two stages of pre-investigation and formal investigation, the actual behavior of the public transport rush travel crowd and the behavior intention under the bus-hour pricing are collected. In this paper, the travel characteristics of the morning rush trip of Chengdu bus are obtained, and the statistical analysis is carried out. 3. After the reliability and validity analysis of the survey data, the objective factors of residents' departure time were analyzed by factor analysis of SPSS19.0 software, and the two characteristic factors of fare perception threshold, individual and economic characteristics were extracted. Then the validity of the two factors and the four factors of the planning behavior theory are tested by using Amos17.0, and the six factors of establishing the structural equation model are determined, which are the intention of departure time, attitude, subjective criterion, respectively. Perceptual behavior control, fare threshold, personal and economic characteristics. 4. Based on the result of factor analysis and validity test of survey data, according to the concept model, the structure equation model of residents' departure time is established, and the model is fitted and modified by Amos17.0. Finally, the conceptual model of residents' departure time intention is obtained. The results show that the direct factors of the residents' departure time under the bus time sharing pricing are behavior attitude and perceptual behavior control. But subjective norms have no direct influence on behavior intention, but indirectly influence behavior intention by influencing behavior attitude and perceptual behavior control, which proves that planning behavior theory can better explain the intention of departure time. However, the need for further expansion is not fully explained. Through the research results and enlightenment, the paper puts forward the relevant suggestions to implement the time-sharing pricing of public transport, which can provide a certain decision reference for the bus companies to implement the time-sharing pricing policy.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U491.17;F572
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