基于系统动力学思想的停车收费与供给政策联动影响研究
发布时间：2018-11-23 10:08
【摘要】：合理的停车收费及供给对城市中心区交通正常运行至关重要,但停车政策实施后的实际效果往往较难预测。目前停车政策作为交通需求管理手段的有效性已得到了众多研究的证实,但这些研究大都只考虑了停车收费而忽略了停车供给,同时模型以简单的静态模型为主,并且分析目标仍停留在需求总量上,不能为政府决策者提供一个直观的决策依据。因此如何分析不同停车收费和停车供给政策对路网交通状态的动态影响成为亟待解决的交通问题。系统动力学是一种在表达整个系统架构的同时还能捕捉元素复杂的动态演变的建模方法,通过系统动力学可以满足模型的动态演化需求,并同时考虑停车收费和停车供给的联系作用,能对不同停车政策下路网状态进行动态评估,获取优化的停车收费和停车供给政策。本文从停车收费与供给的作用原理出发,分析了两者联动影响下的作用机理,并阐述了系统动力学模型与其建模方法,在此基础上应用系统动力学建立了停车政策评估模型,就停车收费与供给政策联动下对路网运行车速的具体影响展开研究。该模型由三个相互关联的子系统组成,首先在出行成本评估子系统中汇总出各出行方式的出行成本,然后在出行方式选择子系统以各出行方式的出行成本为基础结合出行方式选择模型预测政策实施后新的出行方式分布,出行分布转换成流量后输入到路网评价子系统中结合路阻函数预测未来路网车速并产生新的出行成本。新的出行成本继续进入模型循环直至整个系统达到稳态。模型最终输出路网运行车速作为评价变量,并代表整个路网的交通状态,为决策者规划提供理论依据。本论文以杭州市中心区为例,根据模型所需要的参数数据设计调查。通过调查数据与杭州市交通拥堵指数平台的武林商圈范围内的路网数据对模型的准确度进行了验证研究,发现预测的停车收费影响下的路网车速与实际相对误差为1.1%。结果表明：基于系统动力学建立的综合评价模型能较好的反应路网车速随停车收费的变化规律,并且模型推测若减少核心区停车供给反而会增加其拥堵程度。
[Abstract]:Reasonable parking charge and supply are very important to the normal operation of traffic in urban center, but the actual effect of parking policy is often difficult to predict. At present, the effectiveness of parking policy as a means of traffic demand management has been confirmed by many studies, but most of these studies only consider parking fees and ignore parking supply, and the model is based on simple static model. And the objective of the analysis is still on the total demand, which can not provide an intuitive basis for government decision-makers. Therefore, how to analyze the dynamic influence of different parking fees and parking supply policies on road network traffic status becomes an urgent traffic problem. System dynamics is a modeling method that not only expresses the whole system architecture but also captures the complex dynamic evolution of elements. System dynamics can meet the needs of the dynamic evolution of the model. At the same time, considering the relationship between parking charge and parking supply, we can dynamically evaluate the road network status under different parking policies, and obtain the optimized parking charge and parking supply policy. Based on the principle of parking charge and supply, this paper analyzes the mechanism of the system dynamics under the influence of both, and expounds the system dynamics model and its modeling method. On this basis, the parking policy evaluation model is established by using the system dynamics. This paper studies the effect of parking charge and supply policy on the speed of road network. The model is composed of three interrelated subsystems. Firstly, the travel cost of each travel mode is summarized in the travel cost assessment subsystem. Then the new travel mode distribution is predicted after the implementation of the travel mode selection model, which is based on the travel cost of each trip mode selection subsystem and the travel mode selection model. After the trip distribution is converted to flow, it is input into the evaluation subsystem of road network to predict the future speed of road network and generate new travel cost combined with road resistance function. The new travel cost continues to enter the model cycle until the whole system reaches steady state. Finally, the model outputs the speed of the road network as an evaluation variable and represents the traffic state of the whole road network, which provides a theoretical basis for the decision makers' planning. This paper takes Hangzhou central district as an example, designs the survey according to the parameter data needed by the model. The accuracy of the model is verified by the investigation data and the road network data of the Wulin commercial area of Hangzhou traffic congestion index platform. It is found that the relative error between the road network speed and the actual speed under the influence of the predicted parking charges is 1.1. The results show that the comprehensive evaluation model based on system dynamics can better reflect the variation of road speed with parking charge, and the model inferred that if the parking supply in the core area was reduced, the congestion would be increased.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F572.88;N941.3
本文编号：2351209
[Abstract]:Reasonable parking charge and supply are very important to the normal operation of traffic in urban center, but the actual effect of parking policy is often difficult to predict. At present, the effectiveness of parking policy as a means of traffic demand management has been confirmed by many studies, but most of these studies only consider parking fees and ignore parking supply, and the model is based on simple static model. And the objective of the analysis is still on the total demand, which can not provide an intuitive basis for government decision-makers. Therefore, how to analyze the dynamic influence of different parking fees and parking supply policies on road network traffic status becomes an urgent traffic problem. System dynamics is a modeling method that not only expresses the whole system architecture but also captures the complex dynamic evolution of elements. System dynamics can meet the needs of the dynamic evolution of the model. At the same time, considering the relationship between parking charge and parking supply, we can dynamically evaluate the road network status under different parking policies, and obtain the optimized parking charge and parking supply policy. Based on the principle of parking charge and supply, this paper analyzes the mechanism of the system dynamics under the influence of both, and expounds the system dynamics model and its modeling method. On this basis, the parking policy evaluation model is established by using the system dynamics. This paper studies the effect of parking charge and supply policy on the speed of road network. The model is composed of three interrelated subsystems. Firstly, the travel cost of each travel mode is summarized in the travel cost assessment subsystem. Then the new travel mode distribution is predicted after the implementation of the travel mode selection model, which is based on the travel cost of each trip mode selection subsystem and the travel mode selection model. After the trip distribution is converted to flow, it is input into the evaluation subsystem of road network to predict the future speed of road network and generate new travel cost combined with road resistance function. The new travel cost continues to enter the model cycle until the whole system reaches steady state. Finally, the model outputs the speed of the road network as an evaluation variable and represents the traffic state of the whole road network, which provides a theoretical basis for the decision makers' planning. This paper takes Hangzhou central district as an example, designs the survey according to the parameter data needed by the model. The accuracy of the model is verified by the investigation data and the road network data of the Wulin commercial area of Hangzhou traffic congestion index platform. It is found that the relative error between the road network speed and the actual speed under the influence of the predicted parking charges is 1.1. The results show that the comprehensive evaluation model based on system dynamics can better reflect the variation of road speed with parking charge, and the model inferred that if the parking supply in the core area was reduced, the congestion would be increased.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F572.88;N941.3
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