北京铁路局零担市场需求预测研究

发布时间：2018-12-10 09:39

【摘要】：随着我国经济转型和产业结构升级,贴近日常消费者需求的零散白货的产量快速提升,使得货源结构和运输需求发生了深刻变化。然而我国铁路一向只关注大宗货物市场,忽视增幅不断的零担运输市场,导致我国铁路货运市场份额逐年下降。2013年铁路进行货运改革,以前被铁路放弃的零担运输成为此次铁路货运改革的重点。重启零担运输夺取货运市场,成为扭转铁路货运需求萎缩现状的关键措施。因此,零担市场的研究对铁路显得尤为重要。其中,对零担市场的需求研究将成为前提。基于以上背景,本文展开对零担市场需求预测进行研究,具有重要的应用价值。本文以北京铁路局为例,重点研究北京铁路局零担市场需求预测问题。通过对传统零担货物和零散白货的介绍,给出了铁路现代零担货物的含义,并介绍了我国铁路零担运输的发展历程。在此基础上,给出了铁路重启零担运输的必然性。然后,介绍了运输需求预测的含义及基本原理,给出了运输需求预测常用的定性和定量预测方法,通过比较各方法的优劣,选出本文两个单个预测方法灰色预测法和多元线性回归法。并用它们分别对北京铁路局零担市场进行了预测。最后通过熵值法给出两种预测方法的加权系数,构建组合预测模型,进一步对北京铁路局零担市场需求量进行了预测。在对北京铁路局零担市场需求预测的基础上,对北京铁路局发展零担运输进行了分析,并提出了北京铁路局发展零担运输的建议。
[Abstract]:With the economic transformation and the upgrading of industrial structure, the output of scattered white goods, which is close to the demand of daily consumers, has been rapidly increased, which has caused profound changes in the supply structure and transportation demand. However, China's railways have always focused only on the bulk goods market, ignoring the growing market of carry-on transport, which has led to a decline in the market share of China's railway freight market year after year. In 2013, the railway carried out freight transport reform. Previously abandoned by the railway load of transport to become the focus of the railway freight reform. Restarting the carload to seize the freight market has become a key measure to reverse the shrinking demand for railway freight. Therefore, the study of the spare-load market is particularly important to the railway. Among them, the demand for the spare-load market research will be the premise. Based on the above background, this paper carries out the research on forecasting the market demand of part-load, which has important application value. Taking Beijing Railway Administration as an example, this paper focuses on forecasting the market demand of Beijing Railway Administration. Through the introduction of traditional cargoes and scattered white cargoes, this paper gives the meaning of modern railway cargoes and introduces the development course of railway cargoes in China. On the basis of this, the necessity of restarting railway transportation of part-load is given. Then, the meaning and basic principle of transportation demand forecasting are introduced, and the qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods commonly used in transportation demand forecasting are given, and the advantages and disadvantages of each method are compared. Two single prediction methods, grey prediction method and multivariate linear regression method, are selected in this paper. And use them separately to Beijing Railway Administration to carry on forecast to the market of spare-load. Finally, the weighted coefficients of the two forecasting methods are given by entropy method, and the combined forecasting model is constructed, and the market demand of Beijing Railway Administration is forecasted. On the basis of forecasting the market demand of Beijing Railway Administration, this paper analyzes on the development of part-load transportation in Beijing Railway Administration, and puts forward some suggestions for the development of part-load transportation in Beijing Railway Administration.
【学位授予单位】：石家庄铁道大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F532.6

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