航空运输网络中不确定性因素对航班延误波及的影响研究

发布时间：2018-12-28 08:47

【摘要】：我国航班延误问题日益突出,从民航运行实际来看,一架航空器连续执行多个航班任务,航班计划安排紧密,不仅在航班运行的初始阶段可能由于不确定性因素的存在而产生航班延误,在航班运行全过程的各个阶段均可能受到不确定性因素影响。不确定性因素一旦导致了航班延误,还会引发一系列的不确定性因素的产生,从而造成更加严重的延误波及情况。众多航班之间的关联性,以及空域和机场容量的日趋饱和,使延误难以被吸收。因此,不确定性因素下产生的航班延误不仅直接影响到航班及所在机场的运行秩序和安全,其对航班延误波及的影响作用还会借助航空运输网络传播扩散到关联机场甚至是非关联机场,引起大范围的航班延误,对民航的运行安全和社会的安定和谐造成了极其恶劣的影响。本文针对航班安全运行机制,基于航空运输网络研究不确定性因素下的航班延误的波及扩散效应。首先,探究航空运输网络中的航班运行机制,挖掘导致航班延误的各类不确定性因素,并将这些不确定性因素结合航班运行机制分析航班运行的各个阶段可能受到的不确定性因素;其次,结合机场内航班运行机制,分析不确定性因素对各类航班运行的影响作用过程及程度,构建可描述此过程作用机理的有色-时间petri网模型,根据此模型分析机场内航班延误波及效应,并对该理论进行仿真实例验证;再次,结合多机场间航班运行机制,分析不确定性因素在航班链上关联航班的影响作用过程,研究航班延误在航班链的上下游航班的纵向波及效应,结合上述机场内航班延误波及模型,构建可描述航空运输网络中不确定性因素对航班延误波及作用过程机理的有色-时间petri网模型,提出延误纵向波及计算模型,并做出仿真实例验证;最后,基于信息共享原则构建航空运输网络中航班动态调度优化模型,并采用启发式模拟退火算法求解模型,通过仿真验证模型可缓解航班延误波及情况。通过科学的分析不确定性因素在航空运输网络中对航班延误波及的影响作用程度,才能合理地预测其造成的资源和时间消耗,有条不紊地进行航班延误恢复调度和安排,合理的制定航班延误的处置措施,从而达到航班延误波及预警的目的,提高航班延误的恢复效率。
[Abstract]:The problem of flight delay in our country is becoming increasingly prominent. Judging from the actual operation of civil aviation, a single aircraft carries out multiple flight tasks in succession, and the flight planning is closely arranged. Not only the initial stage of flight operation may cause flight delay due to the existence of uncertain factors, but also the uncertainty factors may affect the whole process of flight operation. Once the uncertainty causes the flight delay, it will also lead to a series of uncertainty factors, resulting in more serious delays and ripples. The interconnectedness of many flights and the increasing saturation of airspace and airport capacity make delays difficult to absorb. Therefore, flight delays caused by uncertainties not only directly affect the operation order and safety of flights and their airports, Its impact on flight delays will also spread to related airports or even non-affiliated airports by means of air transport networks, resulting in a wide range of flight delays. Civil aviation operation safety and social stability and harmony caused an extremely bad impact. In this paper, the spread effect of flight delay due to uncertainty is studied based on the flight safety operation mechanism. First of all, it explores the flight operation mechanism in the air transport network, excavates all kinds of uncertain factors that lead to flight delay. These uncertainty factors are combined with the flight operation mechanism to analyze the uncertainty factors that may be encountered in each stage of flight operation. Secondly, combined with the flight operation mechanism in the airport, this paper analyzes the influence process and degree of uncertain factors on the operation of various kinds of flights, and constructs a colored time petri net model which can describe the mechanism of this process. According to this model, the effect of flight delay in the airport is analyzed, and the simulation example is given to verify the theory. Thirdly, combined with the operation mechanism of multi-airport flight, this paper analyzes the influence process of the uncertain factors in the flight chain, and studies the vertical ripple effect of flight delay in the upstream and downstream flights of the flight chain. Combined with the flight delay sweep model in the above airports, a colored time petri net model which can describe the mechanism of the uncertain factors in the air transport network on the flight delay sweep process is constructed, and the calculation model of the delay longitudinal sweep is put forward. The simulation example is given. Finally, based on the principle of information sharing, the optimization model of flight dynamic scheduling in air transportation network is constructed, and the heuristic simulated annealing algorithm is used to solve the model. Through the scientific analysis of the influence degree of the uncertain factors on the flight delay in the air transportation network, the resources and time consumption caused by the uncertainty factors can be reasonably predicted, and the schedule and arrangement of the flight delay recovery can be carried out methodically. To make the disposal measures of flight delay reasonably, so as to achieve the purpose of flight delay and early warning, and to improve the recovery efficiency of flight delay.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TP301.1;F562

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