对于航运企业运费风险规避的实证研究
发布时间：2019-02-22 20:59
【摘要】：航运业一直就是一个高风险低收益的行业，所以近年来随着全球经济的不断变化，中国航运业的发展也可谓一波三折。航运从业者在历经了百年不遇的航运大好形势之后，即海运费从2003年到2008年第三季度增长了近300%，很快地又历经了2008年年底的一场席卷全球的金融危机，这场金融危机给整个航运市场带来了重创。在面对如此之大的全球性系统风险之后，再加之一些航运公司由于经营不善，，最终没能逃脱破产清算的厄运。 航运从业者在亲身经历了这样的事件之后，更加清晰地认识到了运价的巨大波动是整个业内企业经营风险的集中体现。近几年来，随着航运衍生品的不断发展，航运从业者可以有更多的选择进行企业经营中的风险管理，即恰当地运用航运衍生品来进行运费的套期保值交易，提前锁定利润或成本，起到了风险防范的作用。 本文简要介绍了目前市场上的航运衍生品的种类及其应用现状，进一步讨论了航运企业如何运用远期运费协议(FFA)、运费期权交易、集装箱掉期协议(CFSA)以及沿海煤炭运价衍生品交易进行运费的套期保值的原理和案例，最后对上海出口集装箱运价指数的趋势进行了回归拟合预测并且对于此指数的风险进行了实证分析和计算。 本文的创新之处在于对于新版的上海出口集装箱运价指数进行了趋势预测和风险的量化测量。所以本文的研究为航运企业的集装箱运输风险规避提供了一定的参考价值。
[Abstract]:Shipping industry has always been a high-risk and low-income industry, so in recent years, with the continuous changes of the global economy, the development of China's shipping industry can be described as a series of twists and turns. After the excellent situation of shipping industry, which has never been seen in a hundred years, that is, sea freight increased by nearly 300 from 2003 to the third quarter of 2008, and soon after another financial crisis sweeping the world at the end of 2008, The financial crisis has hit the entire shipping market hard. Faced with such a large global systemic risk, combined with poor management, some shipping companies failed to escape the doom of bankruptcy and liquidation. After experiencing this kind of event, the shipping practitioners have realized clearly that the huge fluctuation of the freight rate is the concentrated embodiment of the whole enterprise's management risk. In recent years, with the continuous development of shipping derivatives, shipping practitioners can have more choices to carry out risk management in enterprise management, that is, shipping derivatives are properly used to carry out freight hedging transactions. Lock in profit or cost ahead of time, played the role of risk prevention. This paper briefly introduces the types and application status of shipping derivatives in the market at present, and further discusses how shipping enterprises use forward freight agreement (FFA), freight option trading. Container swap Agreement (CFSA) and the principles and cases of freight hedging in coastal coal freight derivatives, Finally, the trend of Shanghai export container price index is predicted by regression fitting, and the risk of this index is analyzed and calculated empirically. The innovation of this paper lies in the trend prediction and quantitative risk measurement of the new Shanghai Export Container Freight Index. Therefore, the study of this paper provides a certain reference value for shipping enterprises to avoid container transport risks.
【学位授予单位】：上海大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F552.5
本文编号：2428623
[Abstract]:Shipping industry has always been a high-risk and low-income industry, so in recent years, with the continuous changes of the global economy, the development of China's shipping industry can be described as a series of twists and turns. After the excellent situation of shipping industry, which has never been seen in a hundred years, that is, sea freight increased by nearly 300 from 2003 to the third quarter of 2008, and soon after another financial crisis sweeping the world at the end of 2008, The financial crisis has hit the entire shipping market hard. Faced with such a large global systemic risk, combined with poor management, some shipping companies failed to escape the doom of bankruptcy and liquidation. After experiencing this kind of event, the shipping practitioners have realized clearly that the huge fluctuation of the freight rate is the concentrated embodiment of the whole enterprise's management risk. In recent years, with the continuous development of shipping derivatives, shipping practitioners can have more choices to carry out risk management in enterprise management, that is, shipping derivatives are properly used to carry out freight hedging transactions. Lock in profit or cost ahead of time, played the role of risk prevention. This paper briefly introduces the types and application status of shipping derivatives in the market at present, and further discusses how shipping enterprises use forward freight agreement (FFA), freight option trading. Container swap Agreement (CFSA) and the principles and cases of freight hedging in coastal coal freight derivatives, Finally, the trend of Shanghai export container price index is predicted by regression fitting, and the risk of this index is analyzed and calculated empirically. The innovation of this paper lies in the trend prediction and quantitative risk measurement of the new Shanghai Export Container Freight Index. Therefore, the study of this paper provides a certain reference value for shipping enterprises to avoid container transport risks.
【学位授予单位】：上海大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F552.5
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