我国煤炭市场供需分析与海运市场预测

发布时间：2019-04-12 14:05

【摘要】：煤炭资源是我国国民经济发展的主要保障,其供求关系、运力变化是我国国内煤炭海运市场发展趋势的主要指标。因此,研究国内煤炭海运市场供需、运力供给对于从事煤炭海运运输的经营者及投资者把握市场动态、制定投资决策起到至关重要的作用。本文从定性的角度分析了我国国内煤炭海运市场发展现状,并使用定量方法对我国国内煤炭海运市场的发展趋势进行了研究。主要包括以下几个部分：首先,从全球煤炭海运系统入手,对煤炭出口国、港口现状和运力现状进行了基本分析,从定性的角度研究了煤炭海运市场的发展状况,并对影响全球煤炭海运市场波动的主要因素进行了简单阐述。其次,从煤炭运输现状、需求和供给情况分析了我国国内煤炭海运市场发展状况。在对我国煤炭市场的生产、消费和运输现状分析的基础上,详细分析了我国煤炭海运市场的供给和需求关系、煤炭海运市场的运力现状,总结归纳了我国国内煤炭海运市场的基本特征和存在问题。再次,从定性和定量的角度对我国国内煤炭海运市场的未来发展进行了研究,介绍了适用于我国国内煤炭海运市场需求预测的灰色预测模型,并对模型的适用性进行分析。将灰色预测模型应用于我国国内煤炭海运市场需求、船舶运力的预测,并对我国国内煤炭海运市场运价走势给出定性分析。最后,针对我国煤炭海运市场存在的问题提出对策,总结本文研究的主要内容,并指明了本文研究的不足之处和未来研究方向。
[Abstract]:Coal resource is the main guarantee for the development of our national economy. The relationship between supply and demand and the change of transportation capacity are the main indicators of the development trend of China's domestic coal seaborne market. Therefore, to study the supply and demand of domestic coal seaborne market, the supply of transport capacity plays an important role for the operators and investors engaged in coal seaborne transportation to grasp the market dynamics and make the investment decision-making. In this paper, the present situation of domestic coal seaborne market in China is analyzed qualitatively, and the development trend of domestic coal seaborne market in China is studied by using quantitative method. It mainly includes the following parts: first of all, starting with the global coal shipping system, this paper makes a basic analysis of the status quo of coal exporting countries, ports and transport capacity, and studies the development of coal seaborne market from a qualitative point of view. The main factors affecting the fluctuation of the global coal seaborne market are briefly described. Secondly, the development of domestic coal seaborne market is analyzed from the status quo of coal transportation, demand and supply. Based on the analysis of the present situation of production, consumption and transportation in China's coal market, this paper analyzes in detail the relationship between supply and demand of China's coal seaborne market, and the current situation of the transportation capacity of the coal seaborne market. This paper summarizes the basic characteristics and existing problems of China's domestic coal seaborne market. Thirdly, this paper studies the future development of domestic coal seaborne market in terms of qualitative and quantitative analysis, and introduces the grey forecasting model which is suitable for forecasting the demand of domestic coal seaborne market in China, and analyzes the applicability of the model. The grey forecasting model is applied to the demand of domestic coal seaborne market and the forecast of shipping capacity, and the qualitative analysis of the trend of domestic coal seaborne market price is given. Finally, in view of the problems existing in China's coal seaborne market, this paper puts forward countermeasures, summarizes the main contents of this study, and points out the shortcomings of this study and the future research direction.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F426.21;F552;F224

【引证文献】