城市公共交通价格联动策略研究

发布时间：2019-04-13 12:07

【摘要】：城市公共交通价格策略整合是提高交通资源配置效率的有效手段，利用公交价格联动策略的协同效应调控公交需求与供给之间的平衡，已成为公交运营实践和公交价格理论研究的热点问题。公交系统运营中，由于公交价格结构体系不合理或公交资源市场配置的“失灵”，导致公交需求分配与公交资源配置出现偏差，影响公交主体效用和公交服务的社会福利水平。本文从公交价格主体行为决策出发，利用公交价格联动策略调控公交需求与供给的平衡。针对我国城市公交系统中公交价格策略与公交主体行为、公交价格策略时间演化规律和公交价格策略效果评价存在的问题，本文从公交价格主体间递阶结构关系和公交价格传导机制出发，分析公交运营者间竞争与合作的价格博弈策略和策略收益，通过优化不同公交价格间比价关系，影响公交需求结构；结合公交运营主体、公交价格策略集合，确定价格联动策略和独立策略收益函数基础上，建立公交价格联动策略演化博弈模型，揭示公交价格联动策略演化路径和演化稳定策略。此外，围绕公交价格联动策略，采用系统动力学方法仿真公交价格联动策略对公交需求和供给变量的时间累积效果，选取机动车大气排放物指标衡量公交价格联动策略对城市大气环境的改善作用。以交通行为理论为基础，分析公交出行者方式选择行为、运营者之间的竞争与合作行为，以及公交管理者对运营者公交运营准入、服务水平、票价的市场管制行为，形成公交主体间的层次关系，表现为公交管理者位于上层约束公交运营者竞争与合作行为，并考虑和引导公交出行者主体行为；公交运营者与公交出行者之间为相互影响、相互制约的递阶层次关系。由此给出公交运营者价格策略集合和价格策略收益函数的定义。此外，进一步分析公交价格传导机制，揭示公交价格联动策略的生成机理，包括公交价格传导路径和传导方式。针对公交运营者与出行者之间领导者-追随者的博弈关系，采用双层规划理论，以公交系统运营社会福利最大化为目标，公交管理者对公交价格管制为约束条件作为上层规划模型；下层模型出行者效用最大为目标，公交企业服务能力、服务水平管制和公交系统需求均衡为约束条件，建立双层规划模型优化公交系统价格结构，明晰公交价格联动策略对公交系统社会福利和公交出行者行为决策的影响，以及对公交需求均衡分配调控的效果。采用遗传算法和模拟退火算法设计启发式算法求解公交价格联动体系优化模型，以广州市常规公交、BRT、地铁三种公交方式相平行的线路为例，验证模型的实用性，以及算法的准确性和计算效率。基于演化博弈理论，综合公交价格联动和独立策略集合，以及各策略收益模型，构建公交价格联动策略演化博弈模型，刻画采用价格联动策略与价格独立策略公交运营者群体双方相互学习的速度和方向，分析不同公交价格策略演化博弈结果中稳定点的存在性。以广州市常规公交和BRT运营者群体为例，应用公交价格联动策略演化博弈模型，分析不同公交运营者群体初始规模和需求条件下公交价格策略演化路径和演化稳定策略。采用系统动力学方法，以公交价格联动体系优化对公交系统供需静态均衡的影响结果为基础，围绕公交价格联动策略建立公交需求子系统和公交供给子系统间正、负反馈回路，利用广州市交通调查数据标定模型参数和校核模型的准确性，仿真公交价格联动策略对公交需求和公交供给影响的动态变化趋势和时间累积效果。通过公交供、需变量与小客车数量之间的函数关系，获得公交价格联动策略对机动车主要排放物减排的效果，衡量公交价格联动策略对城市大气环境改善的作用。本文针对城市公交价格策略，利用效用理论、博弈理论和系统科学的研究成果，以公交主体决策行为分析为基础，对公交价格联动体系进行了优化，，通过建立公交价格联动策略演化博弈模型，描述采用不同价格策略公交运营者群体双方相互学习的速度和方向，应用系统动力学方法仿真与评价了公交价格联动策略对城市大气环境改善的作用。以上研究成果不仅能够完善公交价格策略优化和演化博弈理论研究的不足，同时对城市公交价格策略整合、公交资源的有效配置和实现公交优先发展具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。
[Abstract]:The integration of the urban public transport price strategy is an effective means to improve the efficiency of the traffic resource allocation, and the balance between the public transport demand and the supply is regulated by the synergistic effect of the public transport price linkage strategy, which has become a hot issue in the research of the public transport operation practice and the public transport price theory. In the operation of the public transportation system, due to the unreasonable structure of the public transport price structure or the "failure" of the public transport resource market, the deviation of the public transport demand distribution and the public transport resource allocation is caused, and the utility of the public transport main body and the social welfare level of the public transport service are affected. This paper, based on the decision-making of bus price subject behavior, uses the public transport price linkage strategy to control the balance of public transport demand and supply. In view of the problems of the public transport price strategy and the public transit subject behavior, the time evolution law of the public transport price and the effect of the public transport price strategy in the urban public transport system of our country, this paper presents the structure relation and the public transport price conducting mechanism from the public transport price main body The paper analyzes the price game strategy and the strategy income of the competition and cooperation among the public transportation operators, and influences the bus demand structure by optimizing the relation between the price and the price of the different buses, and combining the public transport operation main body and the public transportation price strategy set, and determining the price linkage strategy and the independent strategy income function foundation. On the other hand, the evolution game model of the public transport price linkage strategy is established, and the evolution path and the evolution stability of the public transport price linkage strategy are revealed. In addition, the system dynamics method is used to simulate the time accumulation effect of the bus price linkage strategy on the public transport demand and the supply variable, and the improvement of the urban air environment by the public transport price linkage strategy is selected by using the system dynamics method and the time accumulation effect of the bus price linkage strategy on the public traffic price linkage strategy. On the basis of the theory of traffic behavior, this paper analyzes the mode selection behavior of the public transit, the competition and cooperative behavior among the operators, and the market control behavior of the public transport managers on the operation, service level and fare of the operators, and forms the layer between the bus main bodies. The secondary relationship shows that the public transport manager is located on the upper level to restrict the competition and cooperation of the public transport operators, and to take into account and guide the behavior of the public transit passengers; and the public transport operators and the public transport operators are mutually restricted and mutually restricted delivery classes. secondary relationship. This gives the public transport operator price policy set and the price policy benefit function In addition, the mechanism of public transport price transmission is further analyzed, and the mechanism of the public transport price linkage strategy is revealed, including the transmission path and transmission of public transport price. On the basis of the game relationship between the public transport operator and the leader-follower between the travelers, the two-layer planning theory is adopted to maximize the operation welfare of the public transport system, and the public transport manager takes the public transport price control as the constraint condition The model of layer planning; the maximum utility of the lower model is the goal, the service ability of the public transit enterprise, the service level control and the demand of the public transportation system are balanced as the constraint conditions, and the two-layer planning model is established to optimize the public transport system The system price structure, clear the influence of the public transit price linkage strategy on the public transport system social welfare and the behavior decision of the public transit, and the balanced distribution of the public transport demand In this paper, a heuristic algorithm is designed to solve the optimization model of the bus price linkage system by using a genetic algorithm and a simulated annealing algorithm, and the practicability of the model and the accuracy of the algorithm are verified by taking the line parallel to the three public transport modes of the general public transport, BRT and subway in Guangzhou as an example. And constructing a public transport price linkage strategy evolution game model based on the evolution game theory, the comprehensive public transit price linkage and the independent strategy set, and each strategy income model, and the two sides of the public transport operator group adopting the price linkage strategy and the price independent strategy are described. The speed and direction of the study are analyzed, and the game results of different public transport price strategy evolution are analyzed The existence of stable points is analyzed. Taking the general public transport and BRT operator groups in Guangzhou as an example, the evolutionary game model of public transport price linkage strategy is applied to analyze the evolution path of public transport price strategy under the initial scale and demand condition of different public transport operators. And the bus demand subsystem and the bus supply sub-system are established around the bus price linkage strategy based on the influence result of the bus price linkage system optimization on the supply and demand static balance of the bus system. The real-time positive and negative feedback loop is used to calibrate the model parameters and the accuracy of the check model, and the dynamic changes of the public transport demand and the public transit supply are simulated by the simulation of the bus price linkage strategy. The effect of the public transport price linkage strategy on the emission reduction of the main emission of the motor vehicle is obtained through the function relation between the bus supply, the required variable and the number of the small buses, and the urban traffic price linkage strategy is measured in the city The function of the improvement of the atmospheric environment is based on the analysis of the decision-making behavior of the public transportation by using the utility theory, the game theory and the research results of the system science, based on the analysis of the decision-making behavior of the public transport main body. The game model of the evolution game of the grid linkage strategy is described. The speed and direction of the mutual learning of the public transport operators in different price strategies are described. The system dynamics method is applied to simulate and evaluate the public transport price linkage strategy. The result of the above research not only can improve the theory of the optimization of public transport price strategy and the theory of evolutionary game theory, but also the urban public transport price strategy, the effective allocation of public transport resources and the development of the public transport.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F572.5

【相似文献】