高速公路建设项目承包商施工风险评价方法研究
发布时间：2019-04-16 10:09
【摘要】：目前我国高速公路总里程数达8.5万公里，仅次于美国位居世界第二。随着综合国力的增强，为满足国民经济需求我国仍将开建更多的高速公路。这对承包商来说,既是机遇，也潜藏着风险，因为高速公路建设周期长，通过地形条件复杂。如何正确识别风险，进行高效的风险管理，成为一个待研究的课题。 本文在查阅大量文献的基础上，借鉴国内外学者研究的丰富成果，站在承包商角度对高速公路建设项目的施工风险进行分析、评价和防范。在风险分析阶段，从可控性和来源识别了施工的各个风险，并对风险形成机理进行了详细阐述。根据风险形成机理构建了一套高速公路建设项目承包商施工风险评价指标体系，包括了业主风险、自身风险、第三方风险、社会环境风险、自然环境风险等5个2级指标和15个3级指标，并对风险评价指标进行分析，给出定性化和定量化的算式。在风险评价阶段，引入系统工程理论、效用函数理论、遗传算法、模糊数学理论构建了一个多目标-模糊综合评价模型，利用权值优化模型对风险评价指标权重进行赋值，进而运用遗传算法进行计算，最后以HXJ高速公路为例，采集数据，输入模型，，得出该高速公路承包商施工风险为高，并提出风险防范措施。 本文构建的多目标-模糊综合评价方法尝试将风险管理同施工进度、成本和质量控制目标结合起来，综合评价风险，得出最佳评价结果，在高速公路建设项目的风险评价领域做出新的尝试，以期对该领域的研究做出一份微薄的贡献。
[Abstract]:At present, the total highway mileage in China reaches 85,000 kilometers, second only to the United States. With the enhancement of comprehensive national strength, more highways will be built in order to meet the demand of national economy. This is both an opportunity and a potential risk for contractors because of the long cycle of highway construction and the complexity of terrain conditions. How to correctly identify risks and carry out effective risk management has become a subject to be studied. On the basis of consulting a large number of documents and referring to the rich achievements of domestic and foreign scholars, this paper analyzes, evaluates and prevents the construction risks of expressway construction projects from the point of view of contractors. In the stage of risk analysis, the risk of construction is identified from controllability and source, and the mechanism of risk formation is described in detail. According to the mechanism of risk formation, this paper constructs a set of evaluation index system for construction risk of expressway construction project contractor, including owner risk, self-risk, third-party risk, social environmental risk, and so on. There are 5 level 2 indexes and 15 grade 3 indexes of natural environmental risk, and the evaluation indexes are analyzed, and the quantitative and quantitative expressions are given. In the stage of risk assessment, the system engineering theory, utility function theory, genetic algorithm and fuzzy mathematics theory are introduced to construct a multi-objective-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, and weight optimization model is used to evaluate the weight of risk evaluation index. Finally, taking the HXJ expressway as an example, collecting data and inputting the model, it is concluded that the construction risk of the expressway contractor is high, and the measures to prevent the risk are put forward. The multi-objective-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method constructed in this paper tries to combine risk management with construction schedule, cost and quality control objectives, evaluate the risk comprehensively, and obtain the best evaluation result. A new attempt is made in the field of risk assessment of highway construction projects in order to make a modest contribution to the research in this field.
【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F542;U415.2
本文编号：2458692
[Abstract]:At present, the total highway mileage in China reaches 85,000 kilometers, second only to the United States. With the enhancement of comprehensive national strength, more highways will be built in order to meet the demand of national economy. This is both an opportunity and a potential risk for contractors because of the long cycle of highway construction and the complexity of terrain conditions. How to correctly identify risks and carry out effective risk management has become a subject to be studied. On the basis of consulting a large number of documents and referring to the rich achievements of domestic and foreign scholars, this paper analyzes, evaluates and prevents the construction risks of expressway construction projects from the point of view of contractors. In the stage of risk analysis, the risk of construction is identified from controllability and source, and the mechanism of risk formation is described in detail. According to the mechanism of risk formation, this paper constructs a set of evaluation index system for construction risk of expressway construction project contractor, including owner risk, self-risk, third-party risk, social environmental risk, and so on. There are 5 level 2 indexes and 15 grade 3 indexes of natural environmental risk, and the evaluation indexes are analyzed, and the quantitative and quantitative expressions are given. In the stage of risk assessment, the system engineering theory, utility function theory, genetic algorithm and fuzzy mathematics theory are introduced to construct a multi-objective-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, and weight optimization model is used to evaluate the weight of risk evaluation index. Finally, taking the HXJ expressway as an example, collecting data and inputting the model, it is concluded that the construction risk of the expressway contractor is high, and the measures to prevent the risk are put forward. The multi-objective-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method constructed in this paper tries to combine risk management with construction schedule, cost and quality control objectives, evaluate the risk comprehensively, and obtain the best evaluation result. A new attempt is made in the field of risk assessment of highway construction projects in order to make a modest contribution to the research in this field.
【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F542;U415.2
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