航空公司运行监控风险评估研究

发布时间：2019-05-06 10:31

【摘要】：对航空公司的航班在运行过程当中进行风险管控的主要目在于控制飞机运行过程当中的风险,从而将各种风险控制在合理的范围之内。在进行风险管控的过程当中,需要对整个系统进行全面的分析,从而将各个环节当中可能存在的危险源有效的识别出来,并将相关的信息输入到已经建立的危险源数据库当中去,并对相关的信息进行分析与评价,从而找出与危险源对应的风险管控策略。首先阐述了当前阶段航空公司运行监控的全过程,并对最近几年国际上所发生的一些航空事故进行了调查,统计了一些关键性数据,进一步的指出了当前阶段我国的航空公司快速发展与安全状况已经出现了明显的不协调性。基于以上基础,说明了当前阶段航空公司必须要进行风险管理。在本文当中,笔者对影响航空公司运行监控的相关指标进行了分析,同时建立其完善的评价指标体系。并使用BP神经网络的基本原理,建立了对应的安全风险评估模型,模型的运行结果表明,该评价指标具有一定的有效性,对于目前阶段我国的航空公司改善自己的风险管控具有一定的指导意义。其次,本文还对模糊综合评价法、层次分析法、证据理论法以及三角模糊分析法的特点进行了必要的分析,并创造性的将BP神经网络引入到航空公司运行监控风险评估的模型建构过程当中,同时对模型中所使用的算法进行了详细的论述。并针对当前阶段BP神经网络所存在的一些不足,对其进行了必要的改进。为了避免在研究的过程当中受到一些专家的影响,提高研究的客观性,还采用了熵权法对相关指标进行了处理。最后,论文还对所建立的评估指标体系的灵敏度进行了分析,并发现了其中最关键的指标,同时还提出了针对于该关键性指标的一些具体建议。这对于航空公司具有非常重要的意义。
[Abstract]:The main purpose of the risk control of airline flights in the course of operation is to control the risks during the operation of the aircraft, so as to control all kinds of risks within a reasonable range. In the process of risk control, a comprehensive analysis of the whole system is needed in order to effectively identify the risk sources that may exist in each link. The relevant information is inputted into the established hazard source database, and the relevant information is analyzed and evaluated, so as to find out the risk control strategy corresponding to the hazard source. First of all, this paper expounds the whole process of the operation and monitoring of airlines in the current stage, and investigates some aviation accidents that have taken place in the world in recent years, and statistics some key data. Furthermore, it is pointed out that the rapid development and safety situation of airlines in our country have appeared obvious disharmony in the current stage. Based on the above foundation, it shows that airlines must carry out risk management in the current stage. In this paper, the author analyzes the related indicators affecting the operation and monitoring of airlines, and establishes a perfect evaluation index system at the same time. Based on the basic principle of BP neural network, the corresponding safety risk assessment model is established. The running results of the model show that the evaluation index is effective to a certain extent. For the current stage of China's airlines to improve their own risk control has a certain guiding significance. Secondly, the characteristics of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), evidence theory method and triangular fuzzy analysis method are analyzed. The BP neural network is introduced creatively into the process of constructing the risk assessment model for airline operation monitoring, and the algorithm used in the model is discussed in detail. In view of the shortcomings of BP neural network in the current stage, it is necessary to improve it. In order to avoid the influence of some experts in the research process and improve the objectivity of the research, entropy weight method is used to deal with the related indexes. Finally, the sensitivity of the established evaluation index system is analyzed, and the most important index is found. At the same time, some specific suggestions for the key index are also put forward. This is very important for airlines.
【学位授予单位】：中国民用航空飞行学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F562.6

【相似文献】