基于经济控制论的油轮运输市场研究

发布时间：2019-05-29 22:09

【摘要】：随着全球经济一体化和贸易全球化的深入推进,航运业在国际贸易中发挥着越来越重要的作用,国际航运市场的竞争也日趋激烈。现在利比亚战争的爆发使得大量油田被破坏,欧债危机及美国经济的疲软发展都对石油产业产生巨大影响,这些都使得本就没有从金融危机中恢复过来的国际油轮运输市场的竞争变得更加激烈。研究和建立航运市场的数学模型,预测市场的未来变化,提出科学的经营管理决策对于航运企业的发展和核心竞争力的提高具有至关重要的作用。经济控制论已经在很多领域取得了较好的理论和应用成果,但在航运市场的应用还很少。所谓经济控制论,就是控制理论的概念与方法在经济学中的各种应用。经济制论方法十分强调对经济系统各因素的变动进行同时观察。它不仅研究经济系的行为,而且研究它的结构,因此可以更好地揭示系统的本质。论文运用先进的预测和决策理论,针对国际油轮运输市场,进行了深入系统的研究,目的是为企业的科学决策起到积极的促进作用。论文首先对国际油轮运输市场进行了分析,提出了影响需求、供给和运价的各个因素；然后运用经济控制论模型对国际油轮运输市场进行仿真预测,发现该市场短期内的行情不容乐观,但是通过对市场稳定性和能控性的分析发现,通过对国际油轮运输价格的调整,可以实现模型的反馈控制,从而达到预期的理想经营效果。按照对运价和运力进行控制的理念,文章提出了航运企业可以采取的提高竞争力的措施,最后做了总结概括,提出文章的不足以及改进和完善的方向。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of global economic integration and trade globalization, the shipping industry is playing a more and more important role in international trade, and the competition in the international shipping market is becoming more and more fierce. Now the outbreak of the war in Libya has damaged a large number of oil fields, and the European debt crisis and the weak development of the US economy have had a great impact on the oil industry. All this makes the competition in the international tanker transportation market, which has not recovered from the financial crisis, become more intense. This paper studies and establishes the mathematical model of the shipping market, forecasts the future changes of the market, and puts forward that scientific management decisions play an important role in the development of shipping enterprises and the improvement of their core competitiveness. Economic cybernetics has achieved good theoretical and application results in many fields, but its application in shipping market is still very few. The so-called economic cybernetics is the application of the concept and method of control theory in economics. The method of economic system theory emphasizes the simultaneous observation of the changes of various factors in the economic system. It not only studies the behavior of the economic system, but also studies its structure, so it can better reveal the essence of the system. Based on the advanced prediction and decision theory, this paper makes a deep and systematic study on the international tanker transportation market, in order to play a positive role in promoting the scientific decision of enterprises. Firstly, the paper analyzes the international tanker transportation market, and puts forward the factors that affect the demand, supply and freight rate. Then the economic cybernetics model is used to simulate and predict the international oil tanker transportation market, and it is found that the market situation in the short term is not optimistic, but through the analysis of market stability and controllability, Through the adjustment of the international tanker transportation price, the feedback control of the model can be realized, so as to achieve the expected ideal operation effect. According to the concept of controlling freight rate and capacity, this paper puts forward the measures that shipping enterprises can take to improve their competitiveness, and finally summarizes them, and puts forward the shortcomings of the article and the direction of improvement and perfection.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F551;F416.22;F224

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