林州光伏发电项目投资效益及风险分析

发布时间：2017-12-31 21:05

本文关键词：林州光伏发电项目投资效益及风险分析　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着世界经济的快速发展,经济增长与能源枯竭之间的矛盾、环境保护与能源生产之间的矛盾日渐突出,发展清洁可再生能源,维持经济社会可持续发展,成为全人类共同关心的焦点问题。太阳能作为一种近乎取之不竭的可再生能源,同时又具有完全清洁无污染的特点,具有极大的开发前景,大力发展光伏发电已经被确立为我国能源战略的重要组成部分。然而现阶段最令人瞩目的太阳能技术——光伏发电,尽管近年来获得了快速发展,整个产业链还处于成长期,成熟度有待提高,因此与光伏发电项目诱人前景相伴生的是极高的投资风险。另一方面光伏发电项目投资仍然缺乏一套科学的评价与决策机制,盲目的投资决策很容易导致投资不足或产能过剩,这成为制约光伏产业发展的重要因素。因而,从理论上研究光伏发电项目投资的特点及其影响因素,分析项目的投资构成、运营成本、经济与社会效益,以及项目可能存在的风险因素,在此基础上提出科学的投资评价与决策机制,显得尤为重要。本文根据光伏发电的基本原理,从技术、自然环境以及国家政策等角度对影响光伏发电项目投资效益的因素进行分析；在对光伏发电项目总投资与运营成本的构成及特点详细分析的基础上,对光伏发电项目投资、运营成本以及发电收益的计算方法进行研究,从财务效益、节能减排效益、社会效益3个方面构建了光伏发电综合效益评价指标体系,采用AHP法确定了各指标的权重。以林州光伏发电项目为例,对项目投资额、运营成本以及实际发电量进行详细测算,并据此通过计算净现值、投资回收期以及内部收益率等一系列财务指标对项目直接经济效益进行评估,同时从节能、减排以及社会效益等角度对林州项目的间接效益进行评价。最后结合光伏电站项目发展过程中的实际情况,从政策、项目建设、运营以及宏观环境等角度对光伏电站存在的风险因素出发,运用因子分析法,对项目的关键风险因素进行识别,分析了各因素对项目经济效益的影响机制,为下一步光伏电站建设的风险控制预案以及项目运营中的风险控制措施提供一定的指导意义。本文提出的光伏发电项目投资效益与风险评价体系,可为同类光伏项目的开发运营提供参考。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the world economy, the contradiction between economic growth and energy depletion, the contradiction between environmental protection and energy production is increasingly prominent, the development of clean and renewable energy to maintain sustainable economic and social development. Solar energy is an inexhaustible renewable energy, and has the characteristics of clean and pollution-free, and has a great prospect of development. The development of photovoltaic power generation has been established as an important part of China's energy strategy. However, photovoltaic power generation, the most attractive solar technology at present, has achieved rapid development in recent years. The whole industry chain is still in the growth period, the maturity needs to be improved. Therefore, the attractive prospect of photovoltaic power generation project is accompanied by a very high investment risk. On the other hand, there is still a lack of a set of scientific evaluation and decision-making mechanism for photovoltaic power project investment. Blind investment decision can easily lead to insufficient investment or overcapacity, which has become an important factor restricting the development of photovoltaic industry. Therefore, the characteristics and influencing factors of photovoltaic power project investment are studied theoretically. It is very important to analyze the investment composition, operation cost, economic and social benefits, and the possible risk factors of the project. On this basis, it is very important to put forward a scientific investment evaluation and decision-making mechanism. According to the basic principle of photovoltaic power generation, this paper analyzes the factors that affect the investment benefit of photovoltaic power generation project from the aspects of technology, natural environment and national policy. On the basis of detailed analysis of the composition and characteristics of the total investment and operating cost of photovoltaic power generation project, the calculation method of the investment, operating cost and power generation income of photovoltaic power generation project is studied, and the financial benefits are obtained. The comprehensive benefit evaluation index system of photovoltaic power generation is constructed in three aspects of energy saving and emission reduction benefit and social benefit. The weight of each index is determined by AHP method. Taking the photovoltaic power generation project of Linzhou as an example, the investment of the project is given. The operating cost and actual electricity generation are calculated in detail, and a series of financial indicators, such as net present value, investment recovery period and internal rate of return, are used to evaluate the direct economic benefits of the project, and at the same time, from the perspective of energy conservation. The indirect benefits of Linzhou project are evaluated from the perspective of emission reduction and social benefits. Finally, combining with the actual situation in the development process of photovoltaic power plant project, from the policy, project construction. From the point of view of operation and macro environment, the paper uses factor analysis method to identify the key risk factors of the project, and analyzes the influence mechanism of each factor on the economic benefits of the project. It provides some guidance significance for the next risk control plan of PV power plant construction and the risk control measures in the project operation. The investment benefit and risk evaluation system proposed in this paper can provide a reference for the development and operation of similar photovoltaic projects.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.61

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