基于供应链的汽车制造商财务风险综合评估

发布时间：2018-02-02 02:58

本文关键词： 财务风险财务风险传导汽车制造商供应链能量分析模型　出处：《东北大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济全球化的迅猛发展,企业的合作机会增多,联系也愈发紧密。为更好地应对市场的竞争,很多企业组合在一起,成为一个结构复杂的“超企业”——供应链。制造业是整个国民经济体系的支柱产业,而汽车制造商在制造业中占有举足重轻的地位,尤其是整车制造商,在生产型供应链中居于核心地位,是推动一国经济发展的有力引擎。汽车制造企业的健康发展关乎整个国民经济的有序运行。在供应链环境中,汽车制造商内外环境复杂化加剧,不确定的干扰因素增多,因此企业在拥有产品、技术和管理优势的同时也面临很多新的风险,而原有的风险也形成了新的特征。基本上所有风险对企业的影响最终都会体现在财务层面上。因此,财务风险是威胁企业持续经营的根本性危机。此外,在供应链环境中,由节点的联动性而产生的风险传导问题也使企业的财务风险拥有新的特征。论文以供应链为视角,在全面分析汽车制造商财务风险源后构建反映企业间财务风险传导特性的风险评估模型——财务风险能量分析模型,依托该模型建立财务风险流指标体系,最终通过计算财务风险损失值来衡量汽车制造商财务风险的综合水平。供应链视角下汽车制造商的财务风险评估研究不仅可以补充传统企业财务风险评估的内容和方法,还对汽车制造业财务风险管理具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。论文首先在梳理和归纳国内外关于企业和供应链财务风险研究成果的基础上界定了财务风险、供应链财务风险等概念的内涵和特征,概述了企业财务风险传导的相关理论；其次,依托能量释放理论对汽车制造商财务风险进行成因分析,并通比较财务风险评估方法得出能量分析模型评估财务风险的优越性,并对能量分析模型进行改进,构建财务风险能量分析模型；再次,在能量分析模型框架内,构建汽车制造商财务风险流指标体系,运用粗糙集法对指标进行属性简约和赋权。最后,通过实际案例应用能量分析模型。得出研究结论并对未来进行展望。本文综合运用多种研究方法,理论联系实际,定性与定量结合,以期取得客观、准确的财务风险评估结论,为汽车制造商在进行财务风险管理时提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economic globalization, enterprises have more and more cooperation opportunities and close ties. In order to better deal with the market competition, many enterprises are combined together. Become a complex "super enterprise"-supply chain. Manufacturing industry is the pillar industry of the whole national economy system, and the automobile manufacturer occupies the position of heavy weight in the manufacturing industry, especially the whole car manufacturer. It is a powerful engine to promote the economic development of a country. The healthy development of automobile manufacturing enterprises is related to the orderly operation of the whole national economy. The internal and external environment of automobile manufacturers is becoming more and more complicated, and the uncertain interference factors are increasing. Therefore, enterprises are faced with many new risks while they have the advantages of products, technology and management. But the original risk also formed the new characteristic. Basically all the risk to the enterprise influence will finally all manifests in the financial aspect. Therefore, the financial risk is the fundamental crisis which threatens the enterprise to run continuously. In addition. In the supply chain environment, the problem of risk transmission caused by the linkage of nodes also makes the financial risk of enterprises have new characteristics. This paper takes the supply chain as the perspective. After a comprehensive analysis of the financial risk sources of automobile manufacturers, a risk assessment model-financial risk energy analysis model, which reflects the characteristics of financial risk conduction among enterprises, is constructed, and the financial risk flow index system is established based on the model. Finally, the comprehensive level of financial risk of automobile manufacturers can be measured by calculating the value of financial risk loss. The research on financial risk assessment of automobile manufacturers from the perspective of supply chain can not only supplement the content of traditional financial risk assessment of enterprises. And methods. Also has important theoretical value and practical significance to the automobile manufacturing industry financial risk management. Firstly, the paper defines the financial risk on the basis of combing and summing up the domestic and foreign research results on the financial risk of enterprises and supply chain. The connotation and characteristics of the concept of supply chain financial risk are summarized, and the related theories of enterprise financial risk transmission are summarized. Secondly, based on the energy release theory to analyze the causes of financial risk of automobile manufacturers, and compare the financial risk assessment method to get the superiority of energy analysis model to evaluate financial risk. The energy analysis model is improved and the energy analysis model of financial risk is constructed. Thirdly, within the framework of energy analysis model, we construct the financial risk flow index system of automobile manufacturers, and use rough set method to simplify and weight the indicators. Finally. Through the application of energy analysis model in practical cases, the conclusion of the study and prospects for the future. This paper comprehensive use of a variety of research methods, theory combined with practice, qualitative and quantitative combination, in order to achieve objective. The accurate conclusion of financial risk assessment provides theoretical basis for automaker to manage financial risk.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.471;F406.7

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