人口结构的宏观金融含义:资产、负债及杠杆率

发布时间：2018-02-14 01:31

本文关键词： 国家资产负债表融资风险资产价格杠杆率　出处：《经济体制改革》2013年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文试图从国家资产负债表的角度,研究人口结构转变对资产负债表的影响。从短期来看,从劳动力无限供给到跨越"刘易斯拐点"、从"人口红利"走向"人口负债"的转变会影响一国的负债融资能力、资产配置能力以及使用杠杆率的能力,并相应产生三种潜在的风险:融资风险、资产价格下行风险及杠杆率收缩风险。人口结构对国家资产负债表的可能冲击限制了政策的腾挪空间,未来经济过热与经济"硬着陆"之间的切换更为频繁。
[Abstract]:This paper attempts to study the impact of demographic changes on balance sheets from the point of view of national balance sheets. From unlimited supply of labour to leapfrogging the "Lewis inflection point", the shift from "demographic dividend" to "population liability" will affect a country's ability to finance debt, allocate assets and use leverage. And there are three potential risks: financing risk, downside risk of asset price and risk of contraction of leverage ratio. The possible impact of population structure on national balance sheet limits the space for policy to move. Future economic overheating and economic "hard landing" switching between more frequent.
【作者单位】：国务院发展研究中心金融研究所;
【分类号】：F810.6;C924

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