我国上市公司盈利比率分布特性创新研究——基于2011年沪深股市制造业的截面数据

发布时间：2018-03-11 00:25

本文选题：盈利比率　切入点：正态性检验　出处：《会计之友》2013年24期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章基于对2011年沪深制造业千家上市公司的四项截面盈利比率(销售净利率、资产利润率、每股收益、净利润增长率)的统计分布,发现经Epps-Pulley等检验拒绝正态分布的原假设。分析盈利比率构成变量的分布与变量相互间关系,认为偏离正态的可能原因:一是净利润等存在不同程度的管理操作;二是两两变量间差异的相关程度。对盈利比率的自动拟合发现,每股收益同指数分布、净利率增长率同t分布较好拟合。将盈利比率作为盈余指标,设想使用Pearson型或Johnson型分布族拟合寻找理想的盈余分布密度函数,重新定义光滑标准来判断盈余管理的阀值,可提高盈余分布法的识别精度。
[Abstract]:This paper is based on the statistical distribution of the four cross-sectional profit ratios (net interest rate of sales, profit margin of assets, earnings per share, net profit growth rate) for thousands of listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen manufacturing industries in 2011. It is found that the original hypothesis that normal distribution is rejected by Epps-Pulley et al. The relationship between the distribution of the component variables of profit ratio and the variables is analyzed. The possible reasons of deviation from normal distribution are as follows: one is the existence of different degree of management operation in net profit; Secondly, the degree of correlation between the two variables. The automatic fitting of earnings ratio shows that earnings per share is the same as exponential distribution, and the net interest rate growth rate is better fitted with t distribution. The profit ratio is regarded as a surplus index. It is envisaged that using Pearson or Johnson distribution family fitting to find the ideal density function of earnings distribution and redefining the smoothing criterion to judge the threshold value of earnings management can improve the recognition accuracy of the earnings distribution method.
【作者单位】：西南财经大学会计学院;
【分类号】：F406.72;F832.51;F224

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