中国玉米种植成本收益研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 07:27

本文选题：玉米　切入点：成本收益　出处：《山东农业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：玉米作为我国三大粮食（玉米、稻谷、小麦）之首，播种面积和产量均居第一位，2012年玉米播种面积达到35030千公顷，是稻谷播种面积的1.16倍，小麦播种面积的1.44倍，相当于粮食播种面积的31.5%。玉米还是重要的贸易农产品，2012年我国进口玉米520.8万吨，达到历史高位，而且由于畜牧业和玉米深加工业的快速发展，玉米消费量进一步增加的空间很大。由此可见，玉米在我国粮食安全中发挥着重要的作用。在市场经济条件下，玉米种植户期望以最小的成本获得最大的经济效益，因而对我国玉米种植成本收益情况进行研究，对指导农户根据自身资源获得最大收益具有重要的意义。本文首先对我国玉米种植成本收益情况进行了趋势分析；进而选取11个玉米主产省份对我国玉米种植的地区差异进行比较分析，并通过聚类分析将这11个玉米主产省分为了五类，在比较分析中，还对中国和美国玉米种植的成本收益进行了比较；为具体说明影响我国玉米种植收益的因素，选取单位面积净利润、肥料费、其他物质服务费、人工成本、土地成本、50公斤玉米价格和单产这7个指标，并将单位面积净利润作为被解释变量，建立模型，得到其他指标对玉米种植单位面积净利润的影响程度。分析得出，我国玉米种植的总成本呈现增长趋势，主要是生产成本的增加推动了总成本的上升，但土地成本也开始呈现增长的趋势，人工成本超过物质服务费用，成为生产成本的主体。收益方面，我国玉米种植的产值增长趋势明显，但净利润开始减少，在现金收益中所占的比例也开始下降，，这说明不付费的人工成本和自营地折租的不断增长。根据玉米播种面积和产量，选取了11个玉米主产省份作为地区差异的研究对象，并将其分为四个玉米主产区，比较发现，黄淮海区的玉米种植成本小于其他主产区而净利润大于其他三个玉米主产区，东北区的人工成本和土地成本明显高于其他三个玉米主产区，这主要是由东北区的种植规模决定的，西南区的玉米种植净利润呈现负值，最没有优势。中国和美国的玉米种植成本收益比较发现，中国和美国的玉米种植总成本都呈现增长的趋势，但是中国的增长速度更快，推动美国玉米种植总成本不断增加的主要因素是间接费用的增长，而中国人工成本的增加导致了总成本的上升。对我国玉米种植净利润产生正向影响的是玉米价格和单产，而肥料费、其他物质服务费、人工成本和土地成本阻碍了我国玉米种植收益的增加。从影响的程度来看，单产和价格对玉米种植净利润的杠杆效应高达9，肥料费和其他物质服务费对玉米种植净利润的弹性系数超过了5，而土地成本和人工成本对玉米种植净利润的影响接近3。根据我国玉米成本收益的具体情况，通过抓好主产区生产、提高科技水平、完善价格形成机制和补贴政策等措施来降低玉米种植成本和提高玉米种植收益。
[Abstract]:As China's three major grain maize (corn, rice, wheat) of the first planting area and output ranking first in 2012, corn planting area reached 35 million 30 thousand hectares, is 1.16 times the area of rice planting, 1.44 times of wheat acreage, the equivalent grain sown area of 31.5. Maize is an important agricultural product trade in 2012, China imported 5 million 208 thousand tons of corn, reached a record high, but due to the rapid development of animal husbandry and corn processing, corn consumption further increase large space. Thus, the corn in China's food security plays an important role.
Under the condition of market economy, corn growers expect to obtain maximum economic benefits with the minimum cost, so the research of the cost and income situation of Chinese corn cultivation, to guide farmers according to their own resources to get the maximum benefit is of great significance. Firstly, a trend analysis on Chinese jade rice planting cost; then select the area the difference of 11 maize producing provinces of China's corn planting were compared, and through cluster analysis of the 11 major corn producing provinces are divided into five types, in the comparative analysis, the Chinese and Mei Guoyu rice planting cost benefit comparison; influencing factors of corn planting income in our country for specific instructions, select net profit per unit area, fertilizer cost, other material service fees, labor costs, land costs, the 7 indexes of 50 kilograms of corn price and yield, and the net profit per unit area As an explanatory variable, the model was established to obtain the influence of other indicators on the net profit of corn planting area.
Analysis shows that the total cost of China's corn growth trend, mainly to increase the cost of production to promote the increase in total costs, but the cost of land is also beginning to show a growth trend, the labor cost more than material services, become the main production cost. Income, China's corn output growth trend is obvious, but net profit began to decline, which occupies in the proportion of cash income declined, indicating that labor costs do not pay and self-supporting land rent increase.
According to the corn planting area and yield, selected 11 maize producing provinces in different regions as the research object, and divided into four major maize producing areas, comparison, Huanghuaihai District corn planting cost is less than the other main producing areas and the net profit is greater than the other three main maize producing areas in the northeast region of labor costs and land costs higher than the other three corn producing areas, which is mainly decided by the northeast region planting scale, southwest maize net profit negative, there is no advantage. The corn planting cost benefit Chinese and the United States are compared, and the United States Chinese corn total cost growth trend, but the China the faster growth rate, the main factors driving the US corn total cost increasing is the increase of indirect costs, increased labor costs China resulted in the increase in the total cost.
Have a positive impact on China's corn net profit is the price of corn and yield, fertilizer and other material fees, service fees, labor costs and land costs hindered the corn planting income in our country. From the point of view of the influence degree, leverage yield and net profit of planting corn prices as high as 9, fertilizer cost and other material service fee elasticity on corn net profit of more than 5 of the cost of land and labor costs for corn planting net profit of nearly 3. according to the specific circumstances of the cost of corn income in our country, by concentrating on the main producing areas of production, improve the level of science and technology, improve the price formation mechanism and policy of subsidies and other measures to reduce corn planting cost and improve corn planting income.

【学位授予单位】：山东农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F326.11;F302.6

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