汽车制造上市公司财务可持续发展能力评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-28 08:54

本文选题：可持续发展能力　切入点：协调性　出处：《四川农业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：在复杂的市场环境中,根据企业的内部和外部环境的变化寻求长期生存和发展,探索适应环境变化的有效途径和有效对策,实现可持续与系统内部协调发展具有重大的意义。我国处在工业化过程中的发展中国家,汽车产业涉及面广,关联度高,消费拉动大,发展汽车工业对促进就业、推动技术进步和产业结构升级具有重大意义。本文的研究内容包括：(1)从财务盈利、运营、偿债和成长能力四个维度分析了汽车制造上市公司财务现状；(2)利用BP神经网络方法研究了汽车制造产业上市公司财务各子系统之间的静态和动态协调能力；(3)利用结构方程模型实证分析了基于增长差距的汽车制造产业上市公司财务可持续发展能力,及各要素之间的交互影响和路径系数。通过实证分析获得主要结论如下：(1)汽车制造上市公司财务可持续发展能力偏低。其中56.46%研究样本出现过度增长,43.54%出现增长不足,导致其结果的原因路径系数依次是盈利能力、营运能力、成长能力和偿债能力。(2)汽车制造上市公司财务可持续发展能力各指标之间静态协调无明显规律。最不协调的是偿债与成长能力,其次为偿债与盈利能力、盈利与成长能力,反映汽车制造上市公司快速增长加剧了资金需求和供给的矛盾,从而间接影响现金流、股利政策与留存收益,即影响到企业的成长能力。但从平均值来看,最大的为盈利与整体,最小的为偿债与成长能力,而波动最大的为偿债与运营能力,反映各年协调值变化大,而最小的为偿债与成长能力,说明各年之间协调度变化小。(3)成长、盈利、偿债能力之间的动态协调度在2001-2011间处在协调发展的轨迹上,其他无明显协调发展轨迹。四个子系统与整体之间均处在不协调与基本不协调的分界点0.5处波动；营运能力与整体的动态协调度,下降的逆协调发展的轨迹上；盈利和成长能力分别与整体的动态协调在2001-2011间,处在上升协调发展的轨迹上,但是盈利能力与整体的协调轨迹比成长与整体的协调轨迹更明显,偿债、成长、盈利能力与整体、偿债与盈利能力、运营与盈利能力在2001-2011均处在不断协调发展的轨迹上。反映汽车制造产业产业规模的扩大,增大产业资金需求,加大了偿债能力与盈利能力的矛盾,而动态中,成长、盈利、偿债能力的矛盾又在不断优化,处在协调发展的轨迹上。
[Abstract]:In the complex market environment, according to the changes of the internal and external environment of the enterprise to seek long-term survival and development, to explore the effective ways and countermeasures to adapt to the changes in the environment, It is of great significance to realize the sustainable and harmonious development within the system. In the developing countries in the process of industrialization, the automobile industry in China involves a wide range of areas, has a high degree of correlation, has a large consumption pull, and develops the automobile industry to promote employment. It is of great significance to promote technological progress and upgrade the industrial structure. This paper analyzes the financial situation of automobile manufacturing listed companies from four dimensions of debt service and growth ability. (2) using BP neural network method to study the static and dynamic coordination ability among the financial subsystems of listed companies in automobile manufacturing industry. The structural equation model empirically analyzes the financial sustainable development ability of listed companies in automobile manufacturing industry based on the growth gap. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) the ability of financial sustainable development of automobile manufacturing listed companies is on the low side. Among them, 56.46% of the research samples show excessive growth, 43.54% of which show insufficient growth. The reasons for the result are in turn the profitability, the operating capacity, the path coefficient. There is no obvious law of static coordination among the indexes of financial sustainable development of automobile manufacturing listed companies. The most uncoordinated is debt service and growth ability, followed by debt service and profitability, profitability and growth ability. It reflects that the rapid growth of automobile manufacturing listed companies has aggravated the contradiction between capital demand and supply, thus indirectly affecting the cash flow, dividend policy and retained earnings, that is, affecting the growth ability of the enterprises. The biggest is profit and the whole, the smallest is debt service and growth ability, while the most fluctuating is debt service and operation ability, which reflects the great variation of coordination value in each year, while the smallest one is debt service and growth ability, which shows that the degree of coordination between years varies little. 3) growth. The dynamic coordination degree between profitability and solvency is on the track of coordinated development between 2001 and 2011, but there is no obvious coordinated development track among other subsystems. The four subsystems and the whole are all fluctuating at the boundary point of uncoordinated and basic uncoordinated 0.5; The dynamic coordination degree between operation ability and the whole, the decreasing inverse coordinated development track, the dynamic coordination between profit and growth ability and the overall dynamic coordination between 2001 and 2011, is on the track of rising coordination and development. But the trajectory of coordination between profitability and the whole is more obvious than that between growth and the whole, the debt service, the growth, the profitability and the whole, the debt service and the profitability, The operation and profitability are on the track of continuous coordinated development in 2001-2011. It reflects the expansion of the scale of the automobile manufacturing industry, the increase of the industrial capital demand, the contradiction between solvency and profitability, and the dynamic growth and profitability. The contradiction of debt-paying ability is continuously optimized, and it is on the track of harmonious development.
【学位授予单位】：四川农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.471;F406.7

【相似文献】