我国制造业上市公司财务危机阶段性预警研究

发布时间：2018-04-28 10:08

本文选题：财务危机 + 潜伏期　；参考：《宁波大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：2007年美国爆发的次贷危机引发了全球金融危机，对我国出口拉动型经济造成了巨大影响，造成了大量企业倒闭。因此，对财务危机的爆发提前进行警示成了保证企业持续经营的重要管理手段。而理论界对财务危机形成过程中阶段性特征的研究不足影响了财务危机预警模型的应用价值。本文选取我国2010-2012年首次因财务状况异常而被*ST的43家制造业上市公司为财务危机组样本，按照1:1原则以同期43家非ST公司作为配对样本，采用*ST前五年的数据对财务危机的阶段性进行研究。在分析过程中，首先,对财务危机组和财务正常组公司被*ST前五年数据采用K-S正态检验、Mann-Whitney U检验和T检验进行逐年分析，筛选出各年的在两组公司间具有显著性差异水平的指标，然后采用因子分析、logistic回归分析对差异指标构建预警模型。研究发现：在财务危机爆发前五年，两组公司显著性差异指标在各年是不一样的，随着时间的推移，显著性差异指标个数呈现出一个逐渐增多的趋势；并且，在构建的预警模型中，本文发现不同阶段的预警变量是不一样的，同一预警变量在不同的阶段模型中的系数也表现出很大差异。这两方面的实证结果都说明了财务危机的形成过程具有阶段性，不同的阶段表现出不同的特征。显著性检验表明财务危机存在三个阶段：潜伏期（ST前五年）、恶化期（ST前四年和ST前三年）、实现期（ST前两年和ST前一年）。在财务危机的潜伏期，两组公司的显著性差异指标较少，，主要特点是财务危机公司长期负债水平过高，流动性不足。而到了财务危机恶化期，主要特点是财务危机公司的营运能力出现了显著恶化。到了财务危机实现期，主要特点是财务危机公司的盈利能力和成长能力出现了显著恶化。
[Abstract]:The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007 triggered the global financial crisis, which had a great impact on China's export-led economy and caused a large number of enterprises to close down. Therefore, warning the outbreak of financial crisis in advance has become an important management means to ensure the continuous operation of enterprises. However, the lack of theoretical research on the stage characteristics in the formation of financial crisis affects the application value of financial crisis early warning model. In this paper, 43 listed manufacturing companies whose financial position is abnormal in 2010-2012 are selected as financial crisis group samples. According to the 1:1 principle, 43 non-St companies in the same period are selected as matched samples. Using St data from the first five years to study the stages of financial crisis. In the process of analysis, firstly, the data of financial crisis group and financial normal group were analyzed year by year by K-S normal test Mann-Whitney U test and T test. The indexes with significant differences in the two groups of companies were screened out in each year, and then the logistic regression analysis was used to construct the early warning model of the difference indexes. The study found that: five years before the outbreak of financial crisis, the two groups of significant differences in the indicators are different in each year, with the passage of time, the number of significant differences showed a trend of increasing; and, In the early-warning model, we find that the early-warning variables are different in different stages, and the coefficients of the same early-warning variables are also very different in different stage models. The two empirical results show that the formation process of financial crisis has stages and different stages show different characteristics. The significant test shows that there are three stages of financial crisis: the incubation period is five years before St, the deterioration period is four years before St and three years before St, and the period of realization is two years before St and one year before St. In the incubation period of financial crisis, there are few significant differences between the two groups, the main characteristic is that the long-term debt level of the financial crisis company is too high, and the liquidity is insufficient. The main characteristic of the financial crisis is that the operating ability of the financial crisis company has deteriorated significantly. In the period of financial crisis, the main characteristic is that the profitability and growth ability of financial crisis companies have deteriorated significantly.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F406.7;F425

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