青岛市入境旅游流及其季节变化研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 05:37

本文关键词：青岛市入境旅游流及其季节变化研究　出处：《重庆师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2013年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：青岛市作为山东半岛蓝色经济区的龙头城市,其入境旅游流一直呈平稳增长态势。本文基于2005—2010年青岛市入境旅游流的统计数据,利用GM(1,1)灰色模型和季节强度指数,分析了青岛市入境旅游流流量和季节分布。研究发现,GM(1,1)模型对数据的预测主要反映一种趋势,不排除突发事件对数据精确度的干扰;从季节强度指数可知,青岛市的入境旅游流淡季为Ⅰ季度,旺季为Ⅱ季度、Ⅲ季度和Ⅳ季度,其中,季节强度指数最高为第Ⅱ季度,其值为105.37%,高出年平均值5.37%,季节强度指数最低为第Ⅰ季度,其值为89.55%,低于年平均值10.45%。但是,总体上,青岛市入境旅游流的淡旺季分布不太明显,受气候影响较小,全年的入境旅游流人数较为平稳。所以,两项指标对入境旅游流的发展具有一定的参考作用。
[Abstract]:Qingdao as the leading city in the blue economic zone of Shandong Peninsula, its inbound tourism flow has been steadily increasing. This paper based on the statistical data of Qingdao inbound tourism flow from 2005 to 2010. This paper analyzes the flow and seasonal distribution of inbound tourist flow in Qingdao by using the GM-1) grey model and the seasonal intensity index. It is found that the prediction of the data by the GM1 / 1) model mainly reflects a trend. Does not rule out the sudden incident to the data accuracy interference; From the seasonal intensity index, it can be seen that the low season of inbound tourism flow in Qingdao is first quarter, the peak season is second quarter, the third quarter and the fourth quarter, among which, the seasonal intensity index is the highest in the second quarter, and its value is 105.37%. The seasonal intensity index is the lowest in the first quarter, and the value is 89.55, which is lower than the annual average of 10.45.However, on the whole. The light season distribution of inbound tourism flow in Qingdao is not obvious, it is less affected by climate, and the number of inbound tourist flow is relatively stable in the whole year. Therefore, the two indexes have certain reference function for the development of inbound tourism flow.
【作者单位】：重庆电子工程职业学院管理学院;青岛滨海学院商学院;重庆房地产职业学院管理系;青岛琴岛国际旅行社;
【基金】：青岛滨海学院校级课题(No.2010R06)
【分类号】：F592.7
【正文快照】： 旅游流是旅游者借助交通工具从出发地到旅游目的地移动形成的客流,研究旅游流流量及季节变化,对于旅游地规划布局论证都是必不可少的[1]。目前,我国旅游业已经形成了入境旅游、国内旅游、出境旅游全面发展的局面。其中,由于入境旅游者消费能力强,入境旅游流发育状况直接决定

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