CPI与我国旅游上市公司成长性相互关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-18 10:05

本文关键词：CPI与我国旅游上市公司成长性相互关系研究　出处：《陕西师范大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

更多相关文章： CPI 旅游上市公司 成长性 相互关系

【摘要】：宏观经济变动的因素有很多,与人们最相关的就是物价,因为近年来通货膨胀对人们的影响越来越大。而反映通货膨胀的指标就是居民消费价格指数,即CPI。居民消费价格指数作为一个重要的宏观经济指标,反映了整个宏观经济运行状况,与宏观经济运行有着密不可分的关系。如今,人们越来越感觉到通货膨胀对生活的影响,因此,研究居民消费价格指数与旅游企业的关系就更具有其实际意义。本研究以我国旅游上市公司为研究对象,在借鉴前人经济学理论和成长性理论的基础上,通过构建模型,分析物价指数与旅游上市公司成长性的相互关系。本选题的研究目的：(1)本研究试图探讨居民消费价格指数的变化与旅游上市公司的成长性是否具有关系,有关系的话,是正向还是负向,是否显著。(2)分析旅游上市公司成长性的变化是否对宏观经济指标居民消费价格指数有影响,有何影响。(3)对所选的旅游上市公司进行分类,即酒店类、景区类和综合类旅游上市公司,分析居民消费价格指数对不同种类的旅游上市公司影响情况如何。(4)通过对CPI与旅游行业上市公司成长性相互关系的研究,较为清晰的了解到CPI怎么影响行业内旅游上市公司的成长概况,投资者可以通过分析宏观经济环境状况,对投资对象和投资策略进行选择,这便为投资者的投资选择提供了一定的参考依据。本选题的研究过程：(1)从国内外两个层面对居民消费价格指数、旅游上市公司、成长性的文献进行整理分析。(2)对2002-2010年居民消费价格指数进行描述性统计,通过对国内外CPI、成长性理论以及我国旅游上市公司相关文献的整理,在前人研究的基础上,借助SPSS数理统计工具,对所选取的财务指标进行归类,然后采用合适的财务指标构建上市公司成长性的评价体系。(3)在构建旅游上市公司成长性评价体系的基础上,引入控制变量公司规模,期间费用率,企业的经营风险,并提出假设；通过回归分析研究价格指数、旅游上市公司成长性、公司规模、期间费用率、企业的经营风险的相关性。(4)为了更进一步证实CPI与旅游上市公司成长性之间的关系,对二者进行了格兰杰因果关系检验。本选题研究结论：(1)本研究通通过构建评价体系,得出旅游上市公司成长性得分,从得分情况可以看出,酒店类旅游行业上市公司的成长性最好,景区类旅游上市公司成长性次之,综合类旅游上市公司成长性较差。(2)模型以公司成长性作为被解释变量,CPI为解释变量,回归模型结果显示,我国物价指数,即CPI的变化对旅游上市公司的成长性有显著的负向影响。(3)以旅游上市公司成长性作为解释变量,CPI为被解释变量,对CPI与旅游上市公司成长性进行线性回归分析。结果发现,二者之间并没有显著的相关关系。(4)在更进一步研究二者之间的关系时,笔者对二者进行了格兰杰结果关系检验,发现CPI与旅游上市公司成长性只存在单向的因果关系,即CPI是引起旅游上市公司成长性的格兰杰原因,而旅游上市公司成长性不是引起CPI的格兰杰原因。本研究的创新点：(1)在研究内容选择方面：将宏观经济指标引入了旅游上市公司的研究。虽然国内外学者对企业成长性研究关注度较高,但对居民消费价格指数与旅游上市公司成长性之间的关系研究略显不足。(2)在成长性体系构建方面：丰富了成长性评价体系。本研究构建了旅游行业上市公司成长性评价模型,并利用这一模型对旅游行业上市公司的成长性进行了评价。这在一定程度上丰富了企业成长性评价理论。
[Abstract]:There are many factors of macroeconomic changes, and the most relevant people is the price, because in recent years the inflation influence on people more and more. And the indicator of inflation is the consumer price index, the CPI. consumer price index as an important macroeconomic index, reflects the macroeconomic situation, there are a close relationship with the macroeconomic operation. Now, more and more people feel the impact of inflation on life, therefore, study on the relationship between consumer price index and tourism enterprises have more practical significance. In this study, China's tourism listed companies as the research object, based on the previous theory of economics and the theory of growth through constructing the model, analyze the relation between the price index and tourism growth of listed companies.
The purpose of this research: (1) this study attempts to explore the changes of consumer price index and the growth of the tourism listed company is, anything, is positive or negative, is significant. (2) analysis of changes in the growth of tourism listed companies have influence on macroeconomic indicators of consumption what is the impact of price index. (3) the classification of tourism listed companies selected, namely Hotel, scenic spot and comprehensive travel company, analysis of consumer price index of tourism listed companies of different types of influence situation. (4) of the CPI and the tourism listed companies growth relationship the study, more clear understanding of how to influence the growth of CPI in the tourism industry of listed companies, investors can through the analysis of the macroeconomic environment, the selection of investment and investment strategy, it is The investor's choice of investment provides a certain reference basis.
The process of the research: (1) from home and abroad from two aspects of the consumer price index, tourism listed companies, the growth of literature analysis. (2) descriptive statistics on the 2002-2010 consumer price index, through to the domestic and foreign CPI, growth theory and related literature of Chinese tourism listed companies the arrangement, on the basis of previous studies, using SPSS statistical tools, the financial indexes selected are classified, and then construct a growth evaluation system of listed companies using the appropriate financial indicators. (3) based on the growth evaluation system of the construction of tourism listed companies, the introduction of control variables in company size, period costs rate of business risk, and put forward the hypothesis; through regression analysis of the price index, the growth of tourism listed companies, the company scale, the expense ratio, correlation between business risk business. (4) for The relationship between CPI and the growth of the listed tourist companies is further confirmed, and the Grainger causality test is carried out for the two parties.
The conclusion of this research: (1) this study through the construction of evaluation system, the score of growth of tourism listed companies, from the score can be seen, the growth of the hotel industry listed companies the best scenic spot of the tourist growth of the listed company of comprehensive tourism poor growth of listed companies (2). The model of growth as explanatory variables in the company, CPI as the explanatory variable, the regression model showed that the price index in China, namely, the change of CPI on the growth of tourism listed companies has a significant negative effect. (3) the tourism listed company growth as explanatory variables, CPI as explanatory variables, the the growth of CPI and tourism listed companies by the linear regression analysis. The results showed that no significant correlation between the two. (4) in the further study of the relationship between the two, the author has carried on the examination of the relationship between the two results of Grainger, It is found that CPI has only one causal relationship with the growth of tourism listed companies, that is, CPI is the Grainger reason that causes the growth of tourism listed companies, and the growth of tourism listed companies is not the cause of CPI's Grainger.
The innovation of this study: (1) in the aspect of the selection of research content: macroeconomic indicators into the research of tourism listed companies. Although domestic and foreign scholars study on the growth of enterprises to a higher degree of concern, but the relationship of a consumer price index and tourism growth of listed companies between the (2) construction. In the aspect of growth system: rich growth evaluation system. This study constructs tourism industry growth evaluation model of listed companies, and the growth of tourism listed companies were evaluated by using this model. It enriches the enterprise growth evaluation theory to a certain extent.

【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F592.6

【参考文献】