不对称政策下台海两岸旅游与贸易的互动关系研究

发布时间：2018-02-16 11:58

本文关键词： 两岸政策不对称性两岸旅游两岸贸易格兰杰因果检验　出处：《陕西师范大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：台海两岸政治关系一直以来都是我国一项重要的政治议题。由于政治立场、政体制度的不同,导致两岸在政策方针上存在着严重的不对称性,大陆对台湾友好开放,台湾对大陆敌对封闭；在明显的“政治倾向性”影响下,两岸的民间和经贸往来虽然逐年有所发展,但双向的旅游流和贸易流、旅游偏好和贸易依存度均呈现严重不对称性。大陆处于旅游顺差、贸易逆差的地位；台湾处于旅游逆差、贸易顺差的地位,台湾每年从大陆获得巨大的贸易利润。两岸旅游和贸易之间存在着互动关系,但不对称的交流导致两岸旅游和贸易的格兰杰因果关系呈现不对称的局面。本文立足于历史和政治的高度,在两岸政治立场和政策制定严重不对称的背景下,深入分析两岸自大陆改革开放以来不同阶段的旅游和贸易的不对称发展状况,以及彼此间的旅游偏好和贸易依存度的变化情况。并在此基础上,探讨了这种特殊的不对称互动中,旅游和贸易两个相互联系的系统之间所存在的深度关系。主要结论如下： (1)在两岸不对称的政治立场和政策背景下,两岸的旅游和贸易政策具有极强的“政治倾向性”。通过对两岸旅游和贸易层面政策的梳理,发现大陆对台湾的旅游和贸易政策稳定性较好,保持着持续开放且日益友好的发展态势；而台湾对大陆的旅游和贸易开放进程晚、开放力度小,政策友好度底且稳定性差。长期以来,两岸的旅游和贸易政策为不对称的失衡状态。 (2)在不对称的政治大背景下,两岸的旅游市场规模、旅游优惠政策、贸易支持力度、贸易优惠政策等方面存在着较大差异,使得两岸旅游和贸易发展均呈现严重“不对称”的发展态势,严重影响了两岸多层面的双向良性互动,而不对称的双向互动最主要的根源是台湾对大陆的“限制性政策”。 (3)在台海两岸的出入境旅游与进出口贸易之间存在着明显的推拉模型。随着旅游流和旅游偏好的增长,贸易流和贸易依存度获得了同步增长。进出口贸易流推动了旅游流的快速增长,快速发展的出入境旅游也加深了进口贸易的发展。如果以两岸客流量和旅游偏好为自变量,贸易流和贸易依存度为因变量,发现两者之间具有显著的相关性。(4)利用Eviews7.0统计软件对台海两岸的旅游和贸易做格兰杰因果关系检验,结果发现：大陆断面,由于大陆至台湾的出境旅游流薄弱而影响了其对进出口贸易的带动作用,所以出境旅游不是两岸进口、出口和进出口贸易的格兰杰原因；由于大陆自台进口贸易和两岸进出口贸易已经步入成熟稳定的发展阶段,其对出境旅游的带动作用日益显现,因此成为出境旅游的格兰杰原因。台湾断面,台湾入境大陆旅游不是两岸贸易的格兰杰原因；而由于进口贸易和进出口贸易中大量台湾商务客的存在加强了台客入境大陆的旅游流,所以大陆自台进口贸易和两岸进出口贸易成为台湾入境大陆旅游的格兰杰原因,对入境旅游具有明显的带动作用。 (5)商务旅游者在两岸的旅游人员构成中占据着不同比重：台湾入境大陆旅游者中商务游客的比重虽近年来有所下降,但在30%-50%的高位上波动；大陆出境台湾旅游者中商务游客的比重则在10%左右波动。大陆的旅游开放引发了台湾至大陆大量的旅游流,减缓了两岸的紧张状况,为台湾出口大陆的贸易提供了良好的外部环境；而台湾对大陆日益紧密的贸易联系,弱化了出入境壁垒,为台湾出境大陆提供了便利。台湾入境大陆和投资大陆具有高度的地域一致性,客流量和投资额排名前五的都是江苏、福建、广东、上海和浙江五省。这主要和各个省份市场的地理区位和交通条件、产业战略和产业结构、生产力水平、产业集聚能力、政策倾斜等因素有关。
[Abstract]:The political relations across the Taiwan Strait has always been an important political issue in China. Because of the political position, the regime is different, resulting in cross-strait asymmetry in serious policy on the mainland to Taiwan Taiwan to the mainland open friendly, hostile closed; in the obvious "political orientation", and folk although the year of cross-strait economic and trade exchanges has developed, but the two-way travel and trade flows, tourism preference and trade dependence showed serious asymmetry. In the mainland tourism surplus, trade deficit; Taiwan in the tourism trade surplus deficit status, Taiwan every year to get huge profits from the trade, interaction. Between the cross-strait tourism and trade, but asymmetric exchanges lead to cross-strait tourism and trade Grainger causal relation in the asymmetric situation.
Based on the historical and political level, in the cross-strait political stance and policy making serious asymmetry in the background, in-depth analysis of asymmetric development on both sides since the China reform and opening up in different stages of tourism and trade, as well as the travel preferences and trade dependence. And on this basis, discusses the asymmetric interaction this special in depth, the relationship between tourism and trade two interconnected systems. The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) in the asymmetric political stance and policy background, the cross-strait tourism and trade policy has a strong political inclination. The cross-strait tourism and trade policy review, found that the mainland to Taiwan's tourism and trade policy stability, maintain a sustained development trend is increasingly open and friendly; while tourism and Trade Openness on the mainland of Taiwan late, efforts to open small, friendly policies and poor stability. At the end of a long time, the cross-strait tourism and trade policy for the imbalance of asymmetry.
(2) in the asymmetry of the political context, both sides of the scale of the tourism market, tourism preferential policies, trade support, there is a great difference between the trade and the preferential policy, the development trend of the cross-strait tourism and trade development showed a serious asymmetry, seriously affecting the two-way cross-strait interaction of multi levels, and two-way the main source of asymmetric interaction on the mainland is Taiwan's "restriction" policy.
(3) between the entry and exit of tourism and import and export trade across the Taiwan Strait, there is a clear push-pull model. With the growth of tourist flows and tourism preference, trade flows and trade dependence have the synchronous growth. Import and export trade flows has promoted the rapid growth of tourist flows, the rapid development of inbound and outbound tourism has also deepened the development of import trade. If the travel preferences as independent variables, trade flows and trade dependence as the dependent variables and found significant correlation between the two. (4) tourism and trade on both sides of the Taiwan Strait using Eviews7.0 statistical software to do Grainger causality test, the results showed that: in the mainland section, due to the mainland to Taiwan the outbound tourist flow weak and affected its leading role in the import and export trade, so the outbound tourism is not on both sides of import, export and import and export trade Grainger reason; because the mainland from Taiwan On both sides of import trade and import and export trade has entered a mature stage of development, the leading role of the outbound tourism is increasingly apparent, so Grainger become cause of outbound tourism. The section of Taiwan, Grainger, Taiwan inbound tourism is not the cause of cross-strait trade; and by imports and a large number of Taiwan business travelers are the import and export trade to strengthen the Taiker, inbound tourism flow, therefore, imports from Taiwan cross-strait trade and import and export trade has become the cause of Taiwan inbound tourism, Grainger, has a significant role in promoting the inbound tourism.
(5) business travelers in the cross-strait tourism personnel occupy different proportion of business travelers: Taiwan inbound Chinese tourists in the proportion has declined in recent years, but in the 30%-50% high volatility; business tourists, outbound tourists to Taiwan in the proportion of 10% in the right and left the mainland tourism opening triggered fluctuations. Taiwan to the mainland a lot of tourists flow, slowing the tensions between the two sides, provide a good external environment for the export of Taiwan, Taiwan on the mainland trade; and the increasingly close trade links, the weakening of the entry and exit barriers, and provides convenience for the mainland. Taiwan Taiwan exit entry and investment mainland area with high consistency the traffic and investment of the top five are Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangdong, Shanghai and Zhejiang five provinces. This is mainly related to geographic location and traffic conditions, industry and strategy The industrial structure, the productivity level, the industrial agglomeration ability, the policy inclination and so on.

【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F592.7;F727;F224

【引证文献】