转型期城市旅游经济时空变异及其异质性模拟——以泛长三角地区为例

发布时间：2018-03-06 21:36

本文选题：转型期　切入点：旅游经济　出处：《旅游学刊》2013年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：运用GIS技术结合探索性空间数据分析方法,选取2001年、2005年和2010年3个时间断面数据,探讨了转型时期泛长三角城市旅游经济空间集聚及异质性空间格局演化特征,并基于半变异函数进行了空间异质性格局的模拟。结果表明:泛长三角城市旅游经济空间集聚态势明显,人均入境旅游收入、人均旅游总收入及其增长空间格局集聚态势差异显著,以上海和南京为中心的集聚区表现异常凸显。同时,空间滞后模型检验发现,最小二乘法估计的F统计量均大于100,拟合优度在0.8以上,最小二乘法估计的残差通过1%检验,经济发展水平、交通发展程度对城市旅游经济发展起到了较大的促进作用,旅游经济中心的极核作用越来越显著。结构化梯度引起的关联效应呈现上升态势,控制旅游经济发展的全过程,结构性因素和随机性因素的综合作用,共同促进了旅游经济的整体提升,随着区域旅游合作机制的不断深入,异质性格局将呈现弱化态势。
[Abstract]:Using GIS technology and exploratory spatial data analysis method, three time section data of 2001, 2005 and 2010 were selected to explore the spatial agglomeration and heterogeneity spatial pattern evolution characteristics of tourism economy in the pan-Yangtze River Delta during the transition period. The spatial heterogeneity pattern is simulated based on semi-variable function. The results show that the spatial agglomeration of tourism economy is obvious in the pan-Yangtze River Delta city, and the per capita inbound tourism income is obvious. There are significant differences in the agglomeration situation of the per capita tourism gross income and its growth spatial pattern, and the performance of the agglomeration areas with Shanghai and Nanjing as the center is very prominent. At the same time, the spatial lag model test shows that, The F statistics estimated by the least square method are all more than 100, and the goodness of fit is more than 0. 8. The residual error estimated by the least square method has passed the 1% test. The level of economic development and the degree of traffic development have played a greater role in promoting the development of urban tourism economy. The polar core effect of tourism economic center is more and more obvious. The correlation effect caused by structural gradient is rising, which controls the whole process of tourism economic development, the comprehensive action of structural factor and random factor. With the deepening of regional tourism cooperation mechanism, the heterogeneity pattern will be weakened.
【作者单位】：南京师范大学地理科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41271149)资助~~
【分类号】：F592.7;F224

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