基于时间序列法对海南旅游若干问题的研究

发布时间：2018-04-27 20:33

本文选题：海南游客满意度 + 预测分析模型　；参考：《海南师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：论文主要研究了以下三个方面的内容:(1)通过对2003年1月至2012年12月海南过夜旅游总人数建立季节调整模型与SARIMA模型。通过比较季节调整模型与SARIMA模型的均方误差,结果表明:季节调整模型的短期预测分析较优。最后利用季节调整模型对海南2013年1月至2013年12月的过夜旅游总人数进行预测;(2)建立了2003年1月至2012年12月海南过夜入境总人数与港澳台及外国过夜入境人数的线性关系式,比较其权重系数发现；过夜入境总人数主要受香港,外国,台湾这三地的人数影响。(3)通过对调查问卷进行整理分析得到游客对海南旅游的满意度较低,主要表现在对人文、基础设施等方面。由于论文标题是基于时间序列法对海南旅游若干问题的研究分析,选取以上三个方面的内容作为本文研究的主要依据在于：(1)旅游人数是衡量旅游业是否取得进步的重要标志之一。时间序序列法的特点是通过对过去旅游人数的研究分析,进而对未来的数据加以预测。(2)随着《国务院关于推进海南国际旅游岛建设发展的若干意见》的发布,海南国际旅游岛建设正式上升为国家战略。国际化的发展道路在一定程度上给海南带来机遇的同时,也带来了极大的挑战。利用过去十年间入境过夜总人数与港、澳、台的游客数及外国入境人数建立相应的线性关系,从而确定各自在总人数里的权重,以此做好相关更具有针对性的接待工作与措施。(3)最近几年海南旅游中的宰客现象一次次被推到风口浪尖上,游客满意度的一再降低使海南旅游业在一定的程度上不断受挫。针对这些情况,通过设置调查问卷的形式,在游客到海南旅游的必经之地一一机场、火车站等交通要塞进行发放游客满意度调查问卷,并进行整理分析。论文结构分为三部分：第一章主要是绪论知识,包括研究内容、研究背景与意义等。第二章,对时间序列相关理论知识的介绍及建模原理的概述。第三章,针对上述三方面的问题分别分析并得出结论。最后对海南国际旅游岛的建设提出相应的建议与措施。
[Abstract]:This paper mainly studies the following three aspects: 1) establishing seasonally adjusted model and SARIMA model for the total number of overnight tourists in Hainan from January 2003 to December 2012. By comparing the mean square error between seasonally adjusted model and SARIMA model, the results show that the short-term prediction of seasonally adjusted model is better. Finally, the seasonal adjustment model is used to predict the total number of overnight tourists in Hainan from January 2013 to December 2013. The linear relationship between the total number of overnight visitors from January 2003 to December 2012 and the number of overnight arrivals from Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and foreign countries is established. Comparing with its weight coefficient, it is found that the total number of overnight arrivals is mainly influenced by the number of people in Hong Kong, foreign countries and Taiwan. Infrastructure, etc. Since the title of the paper is based on the time series method to study and analyze some problems of Hainan tourism, Selecting the above three aspects as the main basis of this study is the number of tourists is one of the important indicators to measure whether the tourism industry has made progress or not. The characteristic of the time sequence sequence method is to predict the future data by studying and analyzing the number of tourists in the past.) with the release of the State Council's opinions on promoting the Construction and Development of Hainan International Tourism Island, The construction of Hainan International Tourism Island has become a national strategy. To some extent, the development of internationalization brings both opportunities and challenges to Hainan. Using the linear relationship between the total number of overnight arrivals over the past decade and the number of visitors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, as well as the number of foreign arrivals, thus determining their respective weights in the total number of visitors, In recent years, the phenomenon of killing passengers in Hainan tourism has been pushed to the top of the waves again and again, and the decline of tourist satisfaction has made Hainan tourism constantly frustrated to a certain extent. In view of these situations, through setting up the form of questionnaire, the paper distributes the questionnaire of tourist satisfaction in the necessary tourist destination of Hainan, such as airport, railway station and so on, and carries on the analysis. The structure of the thesis is divided into three parts: the first chapter is the introduction of knowledge, including research content, research background and significance. The second chapter introduces the theory of time series correlation and the principle of modeling. The third chapter analyzes the above three problems and draws a conclusion. Finally, some suggestions and measures are put forward for the construction of Hainan International Tourism Island.
【学位授予单位】：海南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F592.7;O212.1

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