基于全价值链的我国旅游上市公司投资决策研究

发布时间：2018-04-28 19:03

本文选题：旅游上市公司 + 投资决策　；参考：《湖北大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,在我国旅游业高速发展的同时,旅游上市公司逐步成为我国市场经济的重要组成部分。并且作为旅游业的龙头企业,其投资决策对区域经济发展具有重要的作用。因此,本研究以旅游上市公司为主要研究对象,对其投资决策的影响因素、投资决策方法进行了分析,具有重要的意义。本研究将定性分析与定量分析相结合,从全价值链角度构建了旅游投资决策的模型。在投资决策开始时,投资决策受到宏观因素与微观因素的共同影响。其中宏观因素包括宏观经济环境与国家相关政策文件,本研究对该部分进行了定性分析；微观因素则包括公司规模、成长性、盈利能力、经营能力、经营风险、资本结构、自由现金流与股权结构,本研究对该部分进行了实证分析。通过选取16家旅游上市公司2004-2011年相关指标的面板数据,构建了旅游投资决策的微观影响因素多元回归模型： Y(i,t)=1.817+0.0105X1(t-1)+0.328X2(t-1)+0.0176X3(t-1)+0.2496X4(t-1)+0.0261X5(t-1)-0.0855X6(t-1)+0.0186X7(t-1)-0.0913X8(t-1),根据回归分析结果可知,8个自变量中有6个自变量对因变量有显著影响。在投资决策过程中,本研究在传统项目投资决策方法与实物期权理论投资决策方法的基础上,构建了基于全价值链的项目投资决策方法。并提出旅游项目投资的综合价值由五大价值组成：经济价值、资本价值、文化价值、社会价值和品牌价值。在此基础上,本研究提出了五大投资策略。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, along with the rapid development of tourism in China, tourism listed companies have gradually become an important part of our market economy. And as a leading enterprise in tourism, its investment decision plays an important role in regional economic development. Therefore, this research takes the tourism listed company as the main research object, analyzes the influence factor of its investment decision and the investment decision method, has the important significance. This study combines qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis and constructs a model of tourism investment decision from the perspective of the whole value chain. At the beginning of investment decision, investment decision is influenced by macro and micro factors. The macro factors include the macroeconomic environment and the relevant policy documents of the country. This research has carried on the qualitative analysis to this part, the microscopic factor includes the company scale, the growth, the profit ability, the management ability, the management risk, the capital structure, Free cash flow and equity structure, this research has carried on the empirical analysis to this part. Based on the panel data of 16 tourism listed companies from 2004 to 2011, the multivariate regression model of micro influencing factors of tourism investment decision is constructed. 1.817 0.0105X1t1) 0.328X2t-1) 0.0176X3t1) 0.2496X4t-1) 0.0261X5t1 + -0.0855X6t-1) 0.0186X7t-1-0.0913X8t-1a. According to the results of regression analysis, 6 of the 8 independent variables have a significant effect on dependent variables. In the process of investment decision, based on the traditional project investment decision method and the real option theory investment decision method, the project investment decision method based on the whole value chain is constructed. The comprehensive value of tourism investment consists of five values: economic value, capital value, cultural value, social value and brand value. On this basis, this study proposed five investment strategies.
【学位授予单位】：湖北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F592.6

【参考文献】