中俄双边旅游与进出口贸易互动关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-02 01:22

本文选题：中俄双边旅游 + 中俄进出口贸易　；参考：《人文地理》2015年02期

【摘要】：以1998—2011年中俄两国旅游与贸易数据为基础,利用格兰杰因果关系检验发现俄国出境旅游是进出口贸易的单向格兰杰原因,中国进出口贸易是出境旅游的单向格兰杰原因。旅游与贸易互动关系研究结果表明:俄国出境旅游对进出口中国贸易均有着明显的推动作用,并对进口贸易的推动作用要明显强一些;中国进出口贸易对出境俄旅游都有明显的促进作用,进口贸易的促进作用要略强一点。俄罗斯断面看,占中国入境旅游比对对华贸易依存度有一定影响;中国断面看,中国对俄贸易依存度对出境俄旅游偏好和占俄入境旅游比影响均较大。两国旅游与贸易的互动性差异特征分析能为两国双边旅游与贸易良性互动发展提供相应参考。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of tourism and trade between China and Russia from 1998 to 2011, it is found by Granger causality test that Russian outbound tourism is the one-way Granger cause of import and export trade, while China's import and export trade is one-way Granger cause of outbound tourism. The results of the study on the interaction between tourism and trade show that Russian outbound tourism plays a significant role in promoting the import and export trade of China, and has a stronger role in promoting the import trade. China's import and export trade plays a significant role in promoting outbound and Russian tourism, and import trade is a little stronger. According to the Russian section, the proportion of inbound tourism in China has a certain influence on the degree of trade dependence on China, while in China, the degree of dependence on trade between China and Russia has a great impact on the preference of outbound Russian tourism and the ratio of inbound tourism of China to Russia. The analysis of the interactive characteristics of tourism and trade between the two countries can provide a reference for the positive interaction between tourism and trade between the two countries.
【作者单位】：安庆师范学院资源环境学院;南开大学旅游与服务学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41101154) 安徽省高校人文社会科学研究重点项目(SK2014A295) 国家旅游局旅游业青年专家培养计划资助项目(TYETP201428)
【分类号】：F592;F595.12;F752.7

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