宏观经济波动对我国入境旅游发展的影响分析

发布时间：2018-06-19 08:52

本文选题：宏观经济波动 + 入境旅游　；参考：《旅游学刊》2013年02期

【摘要】：文章以分析1995～2011年我国宏观经济波动和入境旅游波动的周期性特征为基础,建立包含入境旅游波动、宏观经济波动、汇率变动和居民消费者价格指数变动等变量在内的向量自回归模型,检验了入境旅游波动对于宏观经济波动、汇率变动和通货膨胀的反应,进一步采用分位数回归方法研究了宏观经济波动等因素对入境旅游发展的影响。结果表明:(1)1995～2011年以来,我国宏观经济波动的主周期长度为6年,入境旅游收入波动的主周期长度为2.57年,入境旅游呈现较短的主周期;(2)宏观经济波动和汇率变动对入境旅游发展具有显著的影响,而通货膨胀的影响作用有限;(3)在入境旅游波动的不同水平下,宏观经济波动和汇率变动对入境旅游发展的影响力度存在明显差异,其中包含了更丰富的信息。
[Abstract]:Based on the analysis of the cyclical characteristics of China's macroeconomic fluctuations and inbound tourism fluctuations from 1995 to 2011, this paper establishes a system that includes the fluctuation of inbound tourism and the fluctuation of macro-economy. The vector autoregressive model, which includes variables such as exchange rate fluctuation and consumer price index change, tests the response of inbound tourism fluctuation to macroeconomic fluctuation, exchange rate change and inflation. The influence of macroeconomic fluctuation on the development of inbound tourism was studied by quantile regression method. The results show that since 1995 ~ 2011, the main cycle length of macroeconomic fluctuation in China is 6 years, and that of inbound tourism income is 2.57 years. The impact of inflation on the development of inbound tourism is limited under the different levels of fluctuation of inbound tourism, and the macroeconomic fluctuations and exchange rate changes have a significant impact on the development of inbound tourism, while inflation has a limited impact on the development of inbound tourism. The influence of macroeconomic fluctuation and exchange rate change on the development of inbound tourism is obviously different, which contains more information.
【作者单位】：厦门大学经济学院统计系;
【分类号】：F592;F124.8;F224

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