基于统计模型的突发事件对旅游产业影响研究

发布时间：2018-07-08 09:35

本文选题：统计模型 + 组合预测　；参考：《四川师范大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：摘要：现代旅游业是一个高度敏感性的产业,一些突发事件的出现必会影响旅游产业的发展。本文基于中国旅游产业数据序列,构建以及组合统计模型和计量经济模型,对汶川地震以及世界金融危机等事件产生的影响进行研究。本文研究的内容和结论归纳如下：其一,本文通过汶川地震前四川省旅游数据序列建立SARIMA模型,预测了四川省旅游业六项主要指标以及风景区游客人数,经震后实际值与预测值比较,定量分析汶川地震对四川省旅游业以及风景区的影响程度、影响时滞和游客分布变化。研究发现：截至2010年4月,国内旅游已波动式恢复至预测水平,入境旅游还将继续受地震影响,但入境旅游将不会影响到四川省旅游业波动式恢复至预测水平的趋势,并且四川省旅游业受地震影响的滞后经济损失已超过了受地震影响的直接经济损失；截至2010年4月,在不考虑风景区外部灾损影响下,风景区恢复至预测水平的时间随风景区离震源距离增大而缩短,风景区内部灾损程度与风景区离震源距离大致成直线反比关系,还有汶川地震对游客分布影响显著,部分风景区游客人数已超出预测水平。其二,为提高中国入境旅游人数月度数据序列预测精度,本文选择了TRAMO/SEATS模型、ARFIMA模型以及线性回归模型,然后将各个单项预测模型进行基于IOWHA算子的组合。最后根据实际值和组合模型预测值的比较,定量分析世界金融危机对中国入境旅游的影响程度和影响时滞,以及探究中国入境旅游未来的发展趋势。研究发现：本文建立的基于IOWHA算子的组合预测模型,达到了目前为止中国入境旅游人数月度数据序列预测的最高精度；1991年至2008年,中国入境旅游人数的增长幅度正在逐渐波动式地缩小,在不考虑将来各种因素影响的情况下,中国入境旅游人数将很快长期在一定范围内波动；自2008年4月开始,中国入境旅游就开始持续受到世界金融危机的显著影响,2009年9月持续累积影响效应达到最大,随后中国入境旅游出现逐渐波动式缓慢恢复的状况,截至2010年12月中国入境旅游人数已经完全恢复至2007年的水平并略有超出,但相对应该达到的预测水平还有一定距离,所以世界金融危机对中国入境旅游的滞后影响将是一个更长期的过程。
[Abstract]:Abstract: modern tourism is a highly sensitive industry, and the emergence of some unexpected events will affect the development of tourism industry. Based on the data sequence of China's tourism industry, this paper studies the impact of the Wenchuan earthquake and the world financial crisis on the construction and combination of statistical models and econometric models. The contents and conclusions of this paper are summarized as follows: firstly, this paper establishes the SARIMA model by using the Sichuan tourism data sequence before the Wenchuan earthquake, and predicts the six main indicators of Sichuan tourism and the number of tourists in scenic spots. By comparing the actual values with the predicted values after the earthquake, quantitative analysis of the impact of the Wenchuan earthquake on the tourism industry and scenic spots in Sichuan Province, the impact of time delay and changes of tourist distribution. The study found that, as of April 2010, domestic tourism has recovered to its forecast level in a fluctuating manner, and inbound tourism will continue to be affected by the earthquake, but inbound tourism will not affect the trend of tourism fluctuation to the predicted level in Sichuan Province. Moreover, the lagging economic losses of Sichuan tourism affected by the earthquake have exceeded the direct economic losses affected by the earthquake. As of April 2010, without taking into account the impact of external disasters in scenic spots, The time to recover to the prediction level is shortened with the increase of the distance from the source to the scenic spot. The degree of disaster damage inside the scenic area is approximately in inverse proportion to the distance from the source of the scenic spot, and the Wenchuan earthquake has a significant impact on the distribution of tourists. The number of tourists in some scenic spots has exceeded the forecast level. Secondly, in order to improve the prediction accuracy of monthly data series of Chinese inbound tourist population, this paper selects the ARFIMA model and the linear regression model of TRAMO-SEATS model, and then combines each single prediction model based on IOWHA operator. Finally, according to the comparison between the actual value and the forecast value of the combination model, the paper analyzes quantitatively the influence degree and time delay of the world financial crisis on the inbound tourism of China, and probes into the developing trend of the inbound tourism in China in the future. It is found that the combined forecasting model based on IOWHA operator has reached the highest accuracy of monthly data series prediction of Chinese inbound tourist population from 1991 to 2008. The increase in the number of inbound tourists in China is gradually decreasing in a fluctuating fashion. Without taking into account the influence of various factors in the future, the number of inbound tourists in China will soon fluctuate within a certain range for a long time. Since April 2008, China's inbound tourism began to be significantly affected by the world financial crisis. In September 2009, the continuous cumulative impact reached the maximum, and then China's inbound tourism gradually fluctuated and slowly recovered. As of December 2010, the number of inbound tourists in China had fully recovered to the level of 2007 and slightly exceeded, but there is still some distance to be drawn from the forecast level that should be reached. Therefore, the delayed impact of the world financial crisis on China's inbound tourism will be a longer-term process.
【学位授予单位】：四川师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F592.7;F224

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