东江湖旅游需求分析
发布时间：2019-01-22 13:17
【摘要】：东江湖景区凭借其得天独厚的自然旅游资源,吸引了大批游客前来观光旅游,多年来已然成为资兴市经济社会发展的重要支柱之一。经历了2008全球范围金融危机的洗礼,在后危机时代,东江湖旅游面临着全国旅游市场重新洗牌的压力；但同时也获得了利用弯道超车的前进动力和发展机遇。因此本文依据发展较为成熟的旅游需求理论,全方位入手对东江湖旅游需求的时间结构、空间结构、人口学结构等进行了分析,并在此基础上运用灰色系统理论建立旅游需求预测模型,对东江湖未来五年的旅游人数进行了预测,本文的研究对于制定的东江湖旅游建设方针和拓展东江湖旅游市场份额都有着极其重要意义。 本文首先比较全面的收集了近几十年来国内外有关旅游需求和旅游需求预测的期刊、书籍、报纸等文献资料,并对资料进行了逻辑上的整合、分析和阐述。从而找出了研究东江湖旅游需求的突破口,找准了灰色系统理论作为定量分析工具,对未来五年的东江湖旅游流人数进行了预测。再次从东江湖旅游的实际出发,通过互联网搜索、问卷调查、实地勘察等方法搜集到各项资料和可靠数据,依据已有的旅游需求理论,从时间结构特征、空间结构特征、人口学结构特征和消费结构特征四个方面入手,对东江湖旅游的发展现状进行了全面的剖析,找出了东江湖旅游的内在规律性,和可持续发展性。随后,笔者根据灰色系统理论建立了东江湖旅游流人数的预测模型,运用搜集到的2003至2012十年的数据来确定预测模型中的参数,在模型通过了显著性检验后,运用其对未来五年的旅游流进行了预测。最后,本文基于前文定性定量的综合分析,再一次深究东江湖旅游呈现出现有规律的深层原因,目的在于能够给出相应的对策建议,从而使得东江湖旅游业能够在现有的基础上进一步根据旅游需求的特点进行景区、服务等各方面的建设,使得景区的发展能够更加繁荣且保证可持续性。 通过本文的分析研究,能够从本质上把握东江湖旅游的现状和发展规律,从而有的放矢的制定出相匹配的发展策略,为东江湖旅游走向下一个新的高峰打下了基础。
[Abstract]:With its unique natural tourism resources, Dongjiang Lake Scenic area has attracted a large number of tourists to sightseeing and has become one of the important pillars of the economic and social development of Zixing City for many years. After the baptism of the global financial crisis of 2008, in the post-crisis era, Dongjianghu tourism is facing the pressure of reshuffling the national tourism market, but it has also obtained the motive force and the development opportunity to make use of the detour overtaking. Therefore, based on the mature theory of tourism demand, this paper analyzes the time structure, spatial structure and demography structure of Dongjiang Lake tourism demand. On the basis of this, the forecast model of tourism demand is established by using grey system theory, and the number of tourism in Dongjiang Lake in the next five years is forecasted. The research in this paper is of great significance to the establishment of Dongjiang Lake tourism construction policy and the expansion of Dongjiang Lake tourism market share. In this paper, the author first collects the literature of the domestic and foreign periodicals, books, newspapers and so on about the tourism demand and the forecast of the tourism demand in recent decades, and carries on the logical integration, the analysis and the elaboration to the data. Thus, the paper finds out the breakthrough of the study on the tourism demand of Dongjiang Lake and the grey system theory as a quantitative analysis tool, and forecasts the number of tourism flows in Dongjiang Lake in the next five years. Thirdly, starting from the reality of Dongjiang Lake tourism, collecting all kinds of information and reliable data through Internet search, questionnaire survey, field investigation and other methods, according to the existing theory of tourism demand, from the characteristics of time structure and spatial structure, This paper analyzes the present situation of Dongjiang Lake tourism from four aspects: demographic structure and consumption structure, and finds out the inherent regularity and sustainable development of Dongjiang Lake tourism. Then, according to the grey system theory, the author establishes the prediction model of the tourism flow in Dongjiang Lake, and uses the data collected from 2003 to 2012 to determine the parameters of the prediction model. After the model has passed the significance test, It is used to forecast the tourist flow in the next five years. Finally, based on the qualitative and quantitative comprehensive analysis, this paper once again delves into the deep reasons for the regularity of Dongjiang Lake tourism, the purpose of which is to give the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. In order to make the Dongjiang Lake tourism on the basis of the existing tourism needs to further according to the characteristics of scenic areas, services and other aspects of the construction, so that the development of scenic spots can be more prosperous and sustainable. Through the analysis and research of this paper, we can grasp the present situation and the development law of Dongjiang Lake tourism in essence, and then formulate the corresponding development strategy, which will lay the foundation for Dongjiang Lake tourism to go to the next new peak.
【学位授予单位】：湖南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F592.7
本文编号：2413243
[Abstract]:With its unique natural tourism resources, Dongjiang Lake Scenic area has attracted a large number of tourists to sightseeing and has become one of the important pillars of the economic and social development of Zixing City for many years. After the baptism of the global financial crisis of 2008, in the post-crisis era, Dongjianghu tourism is facing the pressure of reshuffling the national tourism market, but it has also obtained the motive force and the development opportunity to make use of the detour overtaking. Therefore, based on the mature theory of tourism demand, this paper analyzes the time structure, spatial structure and demography structure of Dongjiang Lake tourism demand. On the basis of this, the forecast model of tourism demand is established by using grey system theory, and the number of tourism in Dongjiang Lake in the next five years is forecasted. The research in this paper is of great significance to the establishment of Dongjiang Lake tourism construction policy and the expansion of Dongjiang Lake tourism market share. In this paper, the author first collects the literature of the domestic and foreign periodicals, books, newspapers and so on about the tourism demand and the forecast of the tourism demand in recent decades, and carries on the logical integration, the analysis and the elaboration to the data. Thus, the paper finds out the breakthrough of the study on the tourism demand of Dongjiang Lake and the grey system theory as a quantitative analysis tool, and forecasts the number of tourism flows in Dongjiang Lake in the next five years. Thirdly, starting from the reality of Dongjiang Lake tourism, collecting all kinds of information and reliable data through Internet search, questionnaire survey, field investigation and other methods, according to the existing theory of tourism demand, from the characteristics of time structure and spatial structure, This paper analyzes the present situation of Dongjiang Lake tourism from four aspects: demographic structure and consumption structure, and finds out the inherent regularity and sustainable development of Dongjiang Lake tourism. Then, according to the grey system theory, the author establishes the prediction model of the tourism flow in Dongjiang Lake, and uses the data collected from 2003 to 2012 to determine the parameters of the prediction model. After the model has passed the significance test, It is used to forecast the tourist flow in the next five years. Finally, based on the qualitative and quantitative comprehensive analysis, this paper once again delves into the deep reasons for the regularity of Dongjiang Lake tourism, the purpose of which is to give the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. In order to make the Dongjiang Lake tourism on the basis of the existing tourism needs to further according to the characteristics of scenic areas, services and other aspects of the construction, so that the development of scenic spots can be more prosperous and sustainable. Through the analysis and research of this paper, we can grasp the present situation and the development law of Dongjiang Lake tourism in essence, and then formulate the corresponding development strategy, which will lay the foundation for Dongjiang Lake tourism to go to the next new peak.
【学位授予单位】：湖南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F592.7
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