水资源约束下的黄淮海平原区土地利用结构优化

发布时间：2018-01-10 21:12

本文关键词：水资源约束下的黄淮海平原区土地利用结构优化　出处：《中国农业资源与区划》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：[目的]黄淮海平原作为中国粮食的主产区,同时该区域水资源短缺问题日益加剧。如何在水资源可承载的条件下,保证粮食安全和经济发展,对黄淮海平原区土地利用结构的优化调整进行探索,具有重要意义。[方法]文章应用多元优化模型及遗传算法,在土地面积、宏观计划约束、粮食产量约束、市场约束等条件下,追求流域水资源平衡,同时保障粮食产量最大化,得到2020年黄淮海平原区土地利用结构优化方案,并通过土地转移矩阵,在2020年土地利用总体规划的约束下,依据2000~2010年土地利用变化路径,预测出2020年最大概率自然演化形成的土地利用结构。[结果]将最优方案与自然演化进行了土地利用结构、用水结构以及粮食产出3个方面对比,最优方案的粮食产量为8464.75万t,总耗水量减少18.56亿m~3,均优于自然演化结果,证明土地利用结构优化方案具有一定的有效性。[结论]黄淮海平原区土地利用结构优化的方向是在满足社会经济发展的情况下,尽量降低高耗水强度的建设用地面积占比,减少水资源匮乏流域的耕地面积,增加水资源较丰富流域的耕地面积,以保障粮食产量,充分利用未利用面积,增加林地、水域等生态用地的面积;优化后的土地利用结构,有效缓解了地下水水位下降的趋势。
[Abstract]:[Objective: the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is the main grain producing area in China, and the shortage of water resources in this area is becoming more and more serious. How to ensure food security and economic development under the condition that water resources can be carried? It is of great significance to explore the optimal adjustment of land use structure in Huanghuaihai plain. [Methods] using multiple optimization model and genetic algorithm, under the condition of land area, macro planning constraint, grain yield constraint, market constraint and so on, the paper pursues the balance of water resources in river basin and guarantees the maximization of grain yield. In 2020, the optimization scheme of land use structure in Huang-Huai-Hai plain was obtained, and through the land transfer matrix, under the constraints of the overall land use planning in 2020. According to the path of land use change from 2000 to 2010, the structure of land use formed by the natural evolution of maximum probability in 2020 was predicted. [Results the land use structure, water use structure and grain output were compared between the optimal scheme and the natural evolution. The grain yield of the optimal scheme was eighty-four million six hundred and forty-seven thousand and five hundred tons. The total water consumption is reduced by one billion eight hundred and fifty-six million mm3, which is superior to the result of natural evolution, which proves that the optimization scheme of land use structure is effective to some extent. [Conclusion: the direction of land use structure optimization in Huang-Huai-Hai plain area is to reduce the proportion of construction land area with high water consumption intensity and the cultivated land area of water resources scarce watershed under the condition of satisfying the social and economic development. Increase the area of cultivated land in the basin with abundant water resources in order to ensure grain yield, make full use of unused area, and increase the area of ecological land such as woodland and water area; The optimized land use structure effectively alleviates the downward trend of groundwater level.
【作者单位】：中国农业大学资源与环境学院;国土资源部农用地质量与监控重点实验室;
【基金】：国家社科重点基金项目(14AZD031) 北京市自然科学重点基金项目(8151001)
【分类号】：F301.2
【正文快照】： 0引言当前,我国农业供给侧结构性改革强调粮食安全与生态安全并重[1]。黄淮海平原区作为中国粮仓,在我国粮食安全中处于举足轻重的地位[2];同时该区域也是世界三大地下水漏斗区之一[3,4],浅层地下水漏斗区为4.1万km2,深层地下水漏斗区为5.6万km2,地面下沉严重,区域生态安全面

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