基于LUCC的艾比湖区域生态风险评价及预测研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 17:27

本文选题：艾比湖区域　切入点：土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)变化　出处：《中国环境科学》2016年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：以新疆内陆艾比湖流域典型区域为研究区,基于RS和GIS技术分析1998、2013年土地利用变化,尝试用CA-Markov模型预测2028年土地利用/覆盖变化.借助Fragstats3.4软件,基于土地利用/覆盖变化构建景观生态风险评价模型,分析1998~2028年景观生态风险的时空分异特征.结果表明:(1)1998~2013年,研究区土地类型面积变化明显.耕地面积增加量最大,增加的面积为152139hm~2,而未利用地面积减少量最大,减少的面积为67605hm~2.2013~2028年,耕地和裸露的河床及盐渍地的面积增加明显,增加的面积分别为30730hm~2,12427hm~2,而未利用地和水体的面积分别从954376hm~2和44889hm~2,减至921079hm~2和37157hm~2.(2)1998~2028年,研究区生态风险等级空间分布差异明显.高生态风险区面积变化较为显著,其面积分别约占总面积的36.6%,7.3%,23.7%.1998~2028年,全局Moran’s I值分别为0.436962,0.442202,0.506622,表现为一定程度的正相关.(3)1998~2028年,耕地分布在低,较低生态风险的比重上升,所占百分比分别为58.46%,78.58%,79.9%.林、草地类型的各生态风险等级的所占的比重的波动较大.
[Abstract]:Taking the typical area of Ebinur Lake Basin in Xinjiang as the study area, the land use change in 1998 and 2013 was analyzed based on RS and GIS techniques. The land use / cover change in 2028 was forecasted by CA-Markov model. Fragstats3.4 software was used to predict the land use / cover change in 2028. Based on land use / cover change, a landscape ecological risk assessment model was constructed, and the spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics of landscape ecological risk from 1998 to 2028 were analyzed. The results showed that the area of land type in the study area changed obviously from 1998 to 2013, and the increase of cultivated land area was the largest. The area increased by 152139hmm2, and the area of unused land decreased the most, the area decreased by 67605hmS2.2013- 2028. The area of cultivated land, bare riverbed and saline land increased obviously. The increase of the area was 30730hmkmc2n ~ 12427hmkm-2, while the area of unused land and water decreased from 954376hmnb2 and 44889hmmc-2, respectively, to 921079hmmt2 and 37157hmmc-2 from 1998 to 2028. The spatial distribution of the ecological risk grade in the study area was obviously different, and the area of high ecological risk area changed more obviously. From 1998 to 2028, the overall Moran's I value was 0.4369620.442202U 0.506622, showing a certain degree of positive correlation between 1998 and 2028. The proportion of cultivated land distributed in low ecological risk increased, and the percentage was 58.466.46%, 78.58% and 79.92.The percentage of the total area of cultivated land was 78.58% and 79.90%, respectively, and the total area of cultivated land was about 7.73% of the total area from 1998 to 2028. The overall Moran's I value was 0.436 9622 / 0.442202 / 0.506622, respectively, showing a certain degree of positive correlation between 1998 and 2028. The proportion of each ecological risk grade of grassland type fluctuates greatly.
【作者单位】：新疆大学资源与环境科学学院;新疆大学绿洲生态教育部重点实验室;新疆智慧城市与环境建模普通高校重点实验室;美国圣路易斯大学可持续发展中心;美国孟菲斯大学地球科学系;
【基金】：自治区青年科技创新人才培养工程项目(2013731002) 国家自然科学基金项目(41361045;41130531) 教育部“长江学者和创新团队发展计划”创新团队项目(IRT1180) 新疆绿洲生态(教育部省部共建)重点实验室开放课题(XJDX0201-2012-01)
【分类号】：X826;F301.2

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