河北省粮食生产潜力及土地人口承载力研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 03:24

本文选题：粮食生产潜力 + 社会有效系数　；参考：《河北经贸大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：河北省是粮食生产大省,但是由于人口众多,粮食消费的速度远超过了粮食增产的速度。截至2016年,粮食产量实现了十增,人均粮食拥有量达到了463.21公斤,已基本步入小康水平。现代化农业水平已达到了较高的程度,农业机械化水平已达到92.7%。但由于受城镇化、工业化等影响,全省耕地面积逐年减少,人均耕地面积仅有1.33亩,与我国平均水平相差0.67亩。人口与粮食、土地三者矛盾的问题得到了普遍地关注。加之,农业资源过度开采、农药化肥农膜过度使用、滥用饲料添加剂等粗放农业发展方式造成耕地面积质量的下降等,这都严重影响着粮食增产的能力,人地矛盾问题已成为焦点话题。因此,分析研究河北省粮食生产潜力及土地人口承载力问题,对于政府制定相关政策,解决人地矛盾等一系列问题具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文主要做了以下工作:(1)对河北省的现有粮食生产条件(包括自然条件、农业现代化生产条件)、粮食总产量、播种面积、耕地面积等进行了详细地分析,并利用灰色马尔科夫预测模型,预测了未来几个阶段的粮食总产量和播种面积。(2)根据实际情况,采用“机制法”估算河北省土地生产潜力。第一,运用与太阳总辐射量相关的公式估算出光合生产潜力;第二,由无霜期确定温度有效系数修正光合生产潜力,估算出光温生产潜力;第三,运用降水量与蒸发量的关系式得出水分有效系数,修正光温生产潜力估算出气候生产潜力;第四,对不同坡度的土地加权平均得出土地有效系数,修正气候生产潜力估算出土地生产潜力。(3)研究影响粮食生产潜力的社会经济因素,利用熵值法和灰色关联度复合方法实证分析河北省社会经济因素,得出社会有效系数。订正土地生产潜力估算出社会生产潜力,也就是粮食(最终)生产潜力。根据最终结果,得到粮食最高潜在生产量。(4)在运用灰色马尔科夫预测模型对人口规模进行预测的基础上,以粮食消费量为标准对土地人口承载力现状和未来几个阶段进行研究,将所得结果分别与现实人口规模和预测人口规模进行对比分析,得出未来几个阶段的承载状态。然后根据粮食最高潜在生产量得出最大理论人口承载力。(5)在分析河北省粮食生产潜力与土地人口承载力的基础上,对我省未来粮食生产和人口方面等一系列问题提出相应的对策建议。本文运用灰色马尔科夫预测模型、熵权法与灰色关联度复合模型、土地人口承载力模型等定量与定性相结合的方法对选题进行了分析研究。
[Abstract]:Hebei Province is a large grain production province, but because of the large population, grain consumption rate is far faster than the speed of grain production. By 2016, grain production had increased by 10 percent, with per capita grain holdings reaching 463.21 kilograms, which had basically entered a well-off level. The level of modern agriculture has reached a higher level, and the level of agricultural mechanization has reached 92.7. However, due to the influence of urbanization and industrialization, the cultivated land area of the whole province is decreasing year by year, the per capita cultivated land area is only 1.33 mu, which is 0.67 mu different from the average level of our country. The contradiction between population and grain and land has received widespread attention. In addition, the over-exploitation of agricultural resources, the overuse of agricultural membranes of pesticides and fertilizers, the abuse of feed additives and other extensive forms of agricultural development have resulted in a decline in the quality of cultivated land, all of which have seriously affected the ability of grain production to increase production. The contradiction between man and land has become a hot topic. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to analyze and study the potential of grain production and the population carrying capacity of land in Hebei Province, which is of great theoretical and practical significance for the government to formulate relevant policies and to solve the contradiction between man and land. This paper mainly does the following work: (1) the present conditions of grain production (including natural conditions, agricultural modernization conditions, total grain yield, sowing area, cultivated land area, etc.) in Hebei Province are analyzed in detail. Based on the grey Markov forecasting model, the total grain yield and sowing area in the next several stages were predicted. According to the actual situation, the "mechanism method" was used to estimate the potential of land production in Hebei Province. First, using the formula related to the total solar radiation to estimate the photosynthetic production potential; second, modifying the photosynthetic production potential by determining the effective coefficient of temperature during frost-free period, and estimating the light and temperature production potential; third, Using the relationship between precipitation and evaporation, the effective coefficient of water is obtained, and the climatic productive potential is estimated by modifying the potential of light and temperature production. Fourth, the effective coefficient of land is obtained by weighted average of land with different slopes. The social and economic factors that affect the potential of grain production are studied. The social and economic factors of Hebei Province are analyzed by using entropy method and grey relational degree composite method, and the social effective coefficient is obtained. The revised land production potential estimates the social productive potential, that is, the grain production potential. According to the final results, the maximum potential production of grain is obtained. On the basis of forecasting population scale with grey Markov forecasting model, the present situation and future stages of land population carrying capacity are studied based on grain consumption. The results are compared with the real population scale and the predicted population scale, and the bearing state of the next several stages is obtained. Then, according to the maximum potential production of grain, the maximum theoretical population carrying capacity is obtained.) on the basis of analyzing the potential of grain production and the population carrying capacity of land in Hebei Province, This paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures to a series of problems such as future grain production and population in our province. In this paper, the quantitative and qualitative methods such as grey Markov prediction model, entropy weight method and grey relational degree model, land population carrying capacity model and so on are used to analyze and study the topic.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F326.11

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