地方政府建设用地供给的城镇化效应及其优化配置研究

发布时间：2018-05-25 09:58

本文选题：建设用地供给 + 城镇化效应　；参考：《中国矿业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：作为城镇化系统的基础和房地产市场的供给侧,建设用地供给是地方政府进行宏观调控的良好政策工具。当前相关研究主要集中在建设用地供给对房地产市场的影响,对于建设用地供给产生的城镇化效应没有系统的研究。论文以全国287个地级市为研究对象,在城镇化和城镇化效率现状调查分析的基础上,提出了我国不同的城市间会由于流动人口比例带来的居住模式差异而产生“常规”和“非常规”两种不同的城镇化模式的研究假说。并以流动人口比例作为门限变量建立了建设用地供给与人口流动、房价水平、工资水平之间的门限回归模型。研究依据2006-2014年各城市的面板数据检验了模型及假说的合理性,并依据建设用地供给的不同城镇化效应对江苏省各城市的建设用地供给提出了优化配置的建议。论文得到的主要结论如下:(1)城镇化效率与城镇化水平的相对大小可用来作为城市间土地资源配置的标尺,城镇化水平低但效率高的城市可在建设用地供给中拥有更高的优先度,城镇化水平高但效率低的城市则应在建设用地供给中给予较低的优先度。(2)当城市流动人口比例低于27.36%时,城市城镇化处于常规模式,此时,提高工业用地比重、缩减居住用地比重会导致人口增长速度减缓,工资增长速度提高,房价水平增长。而当城市流动人口比例高于27.36%时,城镇化模式会进入非常规模式,此时,提高工业用地比重、缩减居住用地比重会导致人口增长速度加快,工资增长速度减缓,房价水平增长。(3)以江苏省为例,未来的建设用地供地指标应向扬州、泰州适当倾斜,同时减少南通、无锡市的建设用地指标。徐州市、南通市、连云港市、淮安市、盐城市、扬州市、泰州市、宿迁市适用“常规”模式下的优化方式,而南京市、无锡市、苏州市、常州市、镇江市则适用“非常规”模式下的优化方式。论文的创新之处主要体现在针对当前研究中默认流动人口全部居住在商品房的基础假设,提出了更符合当前城镇化现实情况的理论假设,依据流动人口居住模式带来的城镇化差异性,系统性的将城镇化模式分为“常规”城镇化模式和“非常规”城镇化模式,并揭示了不同城镇化模式下,地方政府建设用地供给对人口、工资、房价的差异性作用规律。
[Abstract]:As the basis of urbanization system and the supply side of real estate market, construction land supply is a good policy tool for local government to carry out macro-control. The current research focuses on the impact of construction land supply on the real estate market, and there is no systematic study on the urbanization effect of construction land supply. Based on the investigation and analysis of urbanization and urbanization efficiency, the thesis takes 287 prefecture-level cities as research objects. This paper puts forward the hypothesis that different cities in China will produce "conventional" and "unconventional" urbanization models due to the difference of living patterns brought by the proportion of floating population. The threshold regression model between construction land supply and population flow, housing price level and wage level is established with floating population ratio as threshold variable. According to the panel data of each city from 2006 to 2014, the paper tests the rationality of the model and hypothesis, and puts forward some suggestions for optimizing the allocation of construction land supply in Jiangsu Province according to the different urbanization effect of construction land supply. The main conclusions of the paper are as follows: (1) the relative size of urbanization efficiency and urbanization level can be used as a scale for the allocation of land resources between cities. Cities with low urbanization level but high efficiency can have higher priority in the supply of construction land. Cities with high level of urbanization but low efficiency should give low priority in the supply of construction land.) when the proportion of urban floating population is lower than 27.36, the urbanization of cities is in the normal mode. At this time, the proportion of industrial land should be increased. Reducing the proportion of residential land will slow population growth, raise wages and raise house prices. However, when the proportion of urban floating population is higher than 27.36%, the urbanization model will enter the unconventional mode. At this time, increasing the proportion of industrial land and reducing the proportion of residential land will lead to the acceleration of population growth and the slow down of wage growth. Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, the future land supply index of construction land should be inclined to Yangzhou and Taizhou, while reducing the index of construction land in Nantong and Wuxi. Xuzhou City, Nantong City, Lianyungang City, Huaian City, Yancheng City, Yangzhou City, Taizhou City, Suqian City apply the "conventional" mode of optimization, while Nanjing City, Wuxi City, Suzhou City, Changzhou City, Zhenjiang City is applicable to the "unconventional" mode of optimization. The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the basic hypothesis that the default floating population lives in commercial housing in the current research, and puts forward a theoretical hypothesis that is more in line with the current reality of urbanization. According to the difference of urbanization brought by floating population living mode, the urbanization model is systematically divided into "conventional" urbanization mode and "unconventional" urbanization mode, and reveals the different urbanization modes. Local government construction land supply to the population, wages, housing differences in the role of the law.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2

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