基于扶贫的我国农户信用评级体系设计研究

发布时间：2018-07-07 23:00

  本文选题：农户 + 扶贫　； 参考：《湘潭大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：贫困是国际上普遍存在的一种现象。在中国,贫困问题一直受到政府和经济学研究者们的高度重视。如何实现“精准扶贫”,消除贫困,提高人们的物质和精神生活水平,是当前经济学重要研究课题。中国的贫困人群主要分布在农村地区,因此,解决好农村人口的贫困问题,实现农村贫困人群脱贫并不再返贫,显得非常重要。本文认为,将包括贫困户在内的所有农户都纳入信用评级体系,对解决我国贫困问题将会起到一定作用。近年来,国家采取一系列措施着力推进扶贫开发工作,在实现“精准扶贫”的同时,将金融扶贫作为推动农村扶贫开发的重要手段,然而,农户,特别是贫困农户贷款难的问题依旧突出,一定程度上影响到贫困农户的脱贫进程。农户贷款难的主要原因是现阶段还缺乏科学、健全的农户信用评级体系。研究并解决这一问题,不仅有助于帮助政府扶贫工作的进行、提高农民生活水平,还可以对于实现脱贫,帮助脱贫之后不再返贫具有一定的参考价值。本文对当前我国面临的贫困治理困境进行阐述,认为农村金融因具有普惠性以及能带动“造血式”发展,对帮助农户彻底脱贫有着强效作用。通过分析归纳以往贫困与贫困治理理论,在研究了个人信用评级理论与现状以及已有的评价指标的基础上,本文提出将建立农户信用评级体系作为一种帮助农户脱贫尤其是防止他们返贫的手段。在分析几种目前流行的农户信用评价方法后,选择了二元logistic回归模型与层次分析法,基于“中国家庭金融调查(China Household Finance Survey,CHFS)”2011年的问卷数据,对影响农户信用的相关因素进行了分析,最终构建了包括家庭特征、经营情况在内的4个一级指标和包括年龄、工作份数、民间借款总额、个人信用纪录等在内的18个二级指标的农户信用评级指标体系。本文在进行了上述研究之后认为,将包括贫困户在内的所有农户纳入信用评级体系中是可行的,而具体的实证分析数据显示:30岁至50岁的农户信用状况相对较好;农户工作的时间越长,表示其越勤劳,收入理论上也相对更高,违约的可能性则相对更低;违约率随着贷款额度的增加而加大,单笔贷款超过一定额度会极大降低农户信用评分;个人信用记录能有效反映农户信用状况。在此基础上,本文提出了包括加大教育与技术培训力度与提高普及度、普及小额贷款、鼓励民间创业与项目、提高贫困户自身脱贫意识、普及信用卡、建立良好信用环境这几项对策与建议,这些建议都会对帮助农户脱贫产生积极作用。
[Abstract]:Poverty is a common phenomenon in the world. In China, the problem of poverty has been highly valued by the government and economic researchers. How to achieve "accurate poverty alleviation", eliminate poverty and improve people's material and spiritual living standards is an important research topic in economics. The poor people in China are mainly distributed in the rural areas, so it is very important to solve the poverty problem of the rural population, to realize the poverty relief of the rural poor people and not to return to poverty. This paper holds that it will play an important role in solving the problem of poverty in China by bringing all farmers, including poor households, into the credit rating system. In recent years, the state has taken a series of measures to promote poverty alleviation and development. While achieving "accurate poverty alleviation," the state has taken financial poverty alleviation as an important means of promoting rural poverty alleviation and development. However, farmers, Especially, the problem of poor farmers' loan is still prominent, which affects the process of poverty alleviation to some extent. The main reason for the difficulty of farmers' loan is the lack of scientific and sound credit rating system. To study and solve this problem will not only help the government to carry out poverty alleviation work and improve the living standard of farmers, but also has certain reference value for the realization of poverty eradication and the non-return to poverty after helping out of poverty. This paper expounds the plight of poverty management in China at present, and holds that rural finance, because of its inclusive nature and the ability to promote "hematopoietic" development, has a strong effect on helping farmers get rid of poverty completely. By analyzing and summarizing the previous theories of poverty and poverty management, this paper studies the theory of personal credit rating, the present situation and the existing evaluation indexes. This paper proposes to establish a credit rating system for farmers as a means to help them out of poverty, especially to prevent them from returning to poverty. After analyzing several popular methods of household credit evaluation, this paper chooses the binary logistic regression model and the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), based on the 2011 questionnaire data of China Household Finance Survey. This paper analyzes the related factors affecting the credit of farmers, and finally constructs four first-level indicators, including family characteristics, business conditions, including age, number of work shares, total amount of private loans, etc. Personal credit records, including 18 second-level indicators of farmers credit rating index system. After the above research, this paper holds that it is feasible to include all the peasant households including the poor households in the credit rating system, and the concrete empirical analysis data show that the credit status of the households aged 30 to 50 is relatively good; The longer farmers work, the more industrious they are, the higher their incomes in theory and the lower the likelihood of default; the rate of default increases as the amount of loans increases. If a single loan exceeds a certain amount, the credit score of farmers will be greatly reduced, and personal credit records can effectively reflect the credit status of farmers. On this basis, this paper puts forward some suggestions, including increasing education and technical training, increasing popularization, popularizing small loans, encouraging folk entrepreneurship and projects, raising the awareness of poverty alleviation among poor households, popularizing credit cards. The countermeasures and suggestions of establishing a good credit environment will play a positive role in helping farmers get out of poverty.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.8;F832.4

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本文编号：2106562