中国—欧盟建立自由贸易区的经济效应研究

发布时间：2017-12-28 14:09

本文关键词：中国—欧盟建立自由贸易区的经济效应研究　出处：《中国海洋大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济全球化和区域经济一体化是当今世界经济发展的重要趋势,但是全球经济危机之后,经济增长乏力,WT0主导下的“多哈回合谈判”进程停滞不前,多边贸易体制存在着一定的实施困难,这使得各国更致力于参与到双边自由贸易区上来。区域经济一体化正逐渐成为当今全球经济发展的一个重要特征。此外,美国主导推动的TPP和TTIP,使中国处于更加严峻复杂的外部环境中。基于此,中国也正在加快以自身为主导的自贸区谈判,依托自身的经济实力,将自贸区的建设思路拓展到欧洲地区,借助中欧FTA的建立,以摆脱当前的被动局面。当前中国发展自由贸易区的条件日益成熟。中欧经贸关系是世界上规模最大、最具活力的经贸关系之一。中国与欧盟保持良好的贸易关系,中国在欧盟贸易伙伴中占据第二,欧盟则长时间在中国的贸易伙伴中排首位。中国和欧盟对于彼此的经济贸易发展都有着极为重要的战略意义。2013年11月,中欧本着友好互信的关系开启投资谈判,这成为双方自贸区协定的良好积垫。中欧自贸区的议题也在升温。中国欧盟间签署FTA对双方的经济和社会发展均有着积极的作用。中国应借此机会积极推进双边自贸区建设,深化自由贸易,以争取更加长足的发展。在以上观点和背景的基础上,本文综合运用国际经济学、计量经济学和国际贸易学的相关理论,以中国和欧盟建立自由贸易区的经济效应作为研究的对象,系统分析了双方建立自由贸易区的可行性,并对自贸区建立后的经济效应进行了定量和定性分析,进而提出对策建议。文章首先对相关的理论进行了介绍,为分析中国和欧盟的贸易可行性以及进一步研究其经济效应打下了理论基础。随后,文章对中国和欧盟自贸区构建的可行性进行了分析,计算了中欧产品的显示性比较优势指数、经济开放度指数以及贸易结合度指数,借助计算结果,分析了双方经贸现状,并对双方的贸易潜力进行了测算。同时,文章还对中欧双方构建FTA的挑战进行了分析。紧接着,文章运用局部均衡分析法,对中国和欧盟建立自贸区后的经济效应进行研究,通过建立模型,估算了贸易创造和贸易转移效应,并在理论层面对动态经济效应进行了研究。最后,文章从中国的立场出发,提出了建立中欧自贸区进程中的对策建议,求同存异,争取共赢。以此前的学术研究的成果作为基础,本文在以下几方面实现了创新：首先选题具有前沿性,双方自贸区的联合可行性研究刚刚启动,本文的选题在一定程度上弥补了目前国内有关研究非常少这一空白；其次,本文在分析自贸区的经济效应时选取了多个不同的角度,目前大多数的国内学者只是从理论的角度对自由贸易区的经济效应的进行解释,本文在研究经济效应时,在理论层面运用局部均衡的分析方法,同时使用了静态效应的模拟方案估算了贸易创造效应和贸易转移效应。最后,通过逐步的研究,找出双方在构建自贸区的过程中所面临的挑战,针对挑战,提出相应的对策,有计划、有步骤地推动双方自贸区的建设,深化互利共赢的中欧经贸关系。
[Abstract]:Economic globalization and regional economic integration is an important trend in the development of the world economy, but the global economic crisis, sluggish economic growth, led by WT0 of the Doha round process stalled multilateral trade system there are certain difficulties in the implementation, which makes the world more committed to participate in the bilateral free trade area. Regional economic integration is becoming an important feature of the global economic development. In addition, the US led TPP and TTIP have made China in a more complex and complex external environment. Based on this, China is also speeding up its own free trade area negotiations, relying on its own economic strength, expanding the construction of free trade area in Europe, and with the establishment of FTA in China and Europe, to get rid of the current passive situation. At present, the conditions for the development of free trade zone in China are becoming more and more mature. China EU economic and trade relations are one of the largest and most dynamic economic and trade relations in the world. China has a good trade relationship with the EU, China occupies second of the EU trade partners, and the EU has been the first in China's trading partners for a long time. China and the EU have a very important strategic significance for each other's economic and trade development. In November 2013, the EU relations friendship and mutual trust to open negotiations on investment, this is a good product pad both free trade agreement. The issues of the China EU free trade zone are also warming up. The signing of the FTA between the EU and China has a positive effect on both the economic and social development of the two sides. China should take this opportunity to actively promote the construction of the bilateral free trade zone and deepen the free trade in order to strive for more rapid development. Based on the above ideas and background, this paper uses the theory of international economics, and the theory of international trade, economic effect to China and the establishment of a free trade zone as the research object, systematically analyzes the feasibility of the establishment of a free trade area, and the economic effect after the establishment of the FTA is analyzed the quantitative and qualitative analysis, then puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions. The article first introduces the relevant theories, which lays a theoretical foundation for the analysis of the trade feasibility of China and the EU and the further study of its economic effects. Then, the feasibility of construction of China and the EU FTA are analyzed, our products revealed comparative advantage index, economic openness index and trade integration index was calculated with the calculation results, analysis of the status quo and potential of bilateral trade, bilateral trade was calculated. At the same time, the paper also analyzes the challenges of building FTA between China and Europe. Then, by using partial equilibrium analysis, we study the economic effects of China and the EU after the establishment of the free trade area. We estimate the trade creation and trade transfer effects by establishing models, and study the dynamic economic effects at the theoretical level. Finally, from the standpoint of China, the article puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions in the process of establishing the Sino EU free trade area, seeking common differences and striving for a win-win situation. In order to study the academic achievements as the foundation, this paper makes innovations in the following aspects: firstly the topic is advanced, a joint feasibility study of both the FTA has just started, this topic to a certain extent make up for the current domestic relevant research very little of this gap; secondly, this paper selects the different angles in the the economic effect analysis of FTA, at present most of the domestic scholars only from the perspective of theory of economic effects on the free trade area of the explanation, based on the study of the economic effect, at the theoretical level, using analysis method of partial equilibrium, while the use of the simulation program to calculate the static effect of trade creation effect and trade diversion effect. Finally, through gradual research, we find out the challenges faced by the two sides in building the free trade area, and put forward corresponding countermeasures for the challenges, plan and step by step to promote the construction of bilateral free trade zones, and deepen mutually beneficial and win-win Sino EU economic and trade relations.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.7

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