秦皇岛市区域可持续发展评价、预警及调控研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 07:34

本文关键词：秦皇岛市区域可持续发展评价、预警及调控研究　出处：《燕山大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着国民经济的发展和社会进步，经济发展与人口、资源、环境之间的矛盾日益显著，实施可持续发展已成为区域经济发展的必经之路。区域可持续发展是国家可持续发展和全球可持续发展的基础，是人类未来可持续发展的最佳选择。因此，运用科学合理的方法和手段来研究区域可持续发展能力、发展水平和区域系统协调发展的程度，对指导区域可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。本文从系统控制论的角度出发，研究秦皇岛市区域可持续发展系统的评价、预警和调控问题。具体研究工作如下：首先，对秦皇岛市区域可持续发展控制系统模型进行了研究。从系统控制论的角度出发，设计了秦皇岛市区域可持续发展行政运行图，给出了秦皇岛市区域可持续发展系统闭环控制模型，该系统模型是秦皇岛市区域可持续发展系统评价、预警和调控的基础。同时对秦皇岛市区域可持续发展控制系统和组成该控制系统的经济、资源、环境、社会、人口、科教六个子系统的主要功能和特征进行分析，并论述了六个子系统之间的主要关系。其次，对秦皇岛市区域可持续发展系统进行了评价研究。通过分析国内外可持续发展评价指标体系的各自优缺点，以市统计局提供的统计数据为基础，经过科研院所的分析，并听取市政府和区域经济专家意见，建立了秦皇岛市区域可持续发展评价指标体系，该体系由99项基本评价指标构成，，并建立了秦皇岛市递阶多层次可持续发展水平综合评价模型。通过区域可持续发展评价模型、评价程序、评价算法和评价标准，对2003~2012年秦皇岛市区域经济、资源、环境、社会、人口和科教子系统及秦皇岛区域大系统可持续发展水平和协调性进行评价，并给出相关数据和图表。进一步，以秦皇岛市旅游系统为例进行了区域可持续发展预警分析。根据2005~2012年秦皇岛市旅游统计数据，分别利用小波神经网络和极值学习机(ELM)网络构建了秦皇岛市旅游可持续发展预警系统，并与BP神经网络构建的预警系统预警的结果进行了比较，比较结果表明极值学习机网络的效果更好。秦皇岛市非常重视城市旅游的可持续发展，根据最近几年的统计数值研究表明秦皇岛市的旅游可持续发展度处于较强可持续发展。最后，研究了秦皇岛市区域可持续发展系统的调控问题。利用反馈控制思想，对2012年秦皇岛市区域可持续发展系统协调性进行分析，根据秦皇岛市经济发展现状给出了秦皇岛市未来几年经济、资源、环境、社会、人口和科教方面的发展对策和建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of national economy and social progress, the contradiction between economic development and population, resources and environment is increasingly obvious. The implementation of sustainable development has become the only way to regional economic development. Regional sustainable development is the basis of national sustainable development and global sustainable development, is the best choice of human sustainable development in the future. Using scientific and reasonable methods and means to study the ability of regional sustainable development, the level of development and the degree of coordinated development of regional system. This paper studies the evaluation of regional sustainable development system in Qinhuangdao from the perspective of system cybernetics. Early warning and regulatory issues. The specific studies are as follows: First of all, the regional sustainable development control system model of Qinhuangdao City is studied. From the perspective of system cybernetics, the administrative diagram of regional sustainable development of Qinhuangdao City is designed. The closed-loop control model of the regional sustainable development system in Qinhuangdao City is presented. The system model is the evaluation of the regional sustainable development system in Qinhuangdao City. The basis of early warning and regulation. At the same time, the sustainable development control system of Qinhuangdao and the economy, resources, environment, society and population of the control system are analyzed. The main functions and characteristics of the six subsystems of science and education are analyzed, and the main relationships among the six subsystems are discussed. Secondly, the regional sustainable development system of Qinhuangdao City is evaluated and studied. By analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of domestic and foreign sustainable development evaluation index system, the statistical data provided by the Bureau of Statistics of Qinhuangdao City is taken as the basis. Through the analysis of scientific research institutes and the opinions of municipal government and regional economic experts, the evaluation index system of regional sustainable development in Qinhuangdao city is established. The system consists of 99 basic evaluation indexes. The comprehensive evaluation model of the hierarchical sustainable development level of Qinhuangdao city is established. Through the regional sustainable development evaluation model, evaluation procedure, evaluation algorithm and evaluation criteria. The sustainable development level and coordination of Qinhuangdao regional economy, resources, environment, society, population, science and education subsystem and Qinhuangdao regional system were evaluated from 2003 to 2012. And gives the related data and the chart. Furthermore, taking Qinhuangdao tourism system as an example, the regional sustainable development early warning analysis is carried out. According to the statistical data of Qinhuangdao tourism from 2005 to 2012. Wavelet neural network and extreme learning machine (ELM) network are used to build Qinhuangdao tourism sustainable development early warning system, and the results of early warning system are compared with BP neural network. The results show that the effect of extreme learning machine network is better. Qinhuangdao city attaches great importance to the sustainable development of urban tourism. According to the statistical and numerical studies in recent years, the sustainable development of tourism in Qinhuangdao is in a strong sustainable development. Finally, the paper studies the regulation and control of the regional sustainable development system in Qinhuangdao city, and analyzes the coordination of the regional sustainable development system of Qinhuangdao city in 2012 by using the feedback control idea. According to the present situation of economic development in Qinhuangdao City, the countermeasures and suggestions for the development of economy, resources, environment, society, population and science and education in Qinhuangdao City in the next few years are given.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X22;F127

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