北京、上海、广州城市旅游经济效应对比分析

发布时间：2018-01-02 18:02

本文关键词：北京、上海、广州城市旅游经济效应对比分析　出处：《上海师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：20世纪60年代以来,世界旅游业步入了高速发展的时代,改革开放以来,中国的旅游业也得到迅速发展,旅游业在国民经济中的地位显著提升,逐步成长为国家战略性支柱产业。旅游业是一个就业范围广、创汇效益高、增值空间大的新兴产业。旅游业的经济效应不仅关系到旅游业自身的发展,而且还影响区域经济的发展。科学合理的评价旅游业对区域经济的贡献水平,明确旅游业在国民经济中所占的地位和所起的作用,对更好地发展旅游业,促进区域经济的发展有着十分重要的意义。北京、上海和广州(以下称北上广)作为中国城市经济发展的先行者,是我国城市旅游发展的典范,所以本文选取了这三座城市为特定的研究对象,具有一定的代表性。虽然现在有文献研究到旅游经济效应,但是主要是对单个城市或地区的分析研究,缺少从地理空间上进行对比分析研究。因此,本文将通过地运用人文地理知识、相关经济理论,采用定性、定量的分析方法,深入探究北上广三个城市的旅游经济效应,这对正确认识北上广旅游经济对本地经济发展所起的作用、探寻不同城市经济发展的差异性具有重要现实意义。为了研究需要,本文收集整理了2003年至2011年间的相关数据；将北上广旅游经济效应的内容限定在旅游经济的发展背景、收入效应、创汇效应、就业效应几个方面；选取了旅游业总收入、旅游业增加值、旅游外汇收入、旅游就业等方面的指标；利用大量的统计数据,运用统计描述、回归分析等方法,对北上广旅游经济效应进行对比分析,得出以下结论。第一,北上广城市旅游收入效应方面。首先,2003年到2011年间三个城市的旅游业总收入基本呈持续上升趋势,其中广州市在三个城市中旅游收入水平最低,与之相比,北京和上海旅游总收入水平较高。北京旅游收入占GDP比重最大,九年中有五个年份旅游收入占GDP比重在20%以上,处于中间水平的上海市旅游收入占GDP比重波动是最大的。再次,北上广三个城市旅游收入占第三产业比重较高,皆在17%以上,其中上海市旅游总收入占第三产业产值比重最高,其次是北京市。最后,旅游收入间接效应方面,北京和广州的旅游收入与当地GDP均存在着相关性,拟合度分别达到了0.9747和0.9486,均体现了显著的线性相关关系,上海旅游业收入与当地GDP的拟合度一般(R2=0.87690%)。第二,北上广城市旅游创汇效应方面。首先,广州历年旅游外汇收入高于北京和上海。广州旅游外汇收入在贸易出口额中的比重最高,最高年份2011年达到了36.07%,第二位是北京。其次,三个城市的旅游创汇对GDP的贡献率呈现高低波动趋势,广州旅游创汇对GDP的贡献率最大,与之相比,北京和上海两个城市呈现下滑趋势。最后,2005年到2011年七年间北京和上海两个城市旅游创汇对GDP的贡献率走势相似度非常高。第三,北上广三市旅游就业效应方面。首先,北上广三个城市旅游支柱产业就业容量均较大,对促进当地就业,起到了非常重要的作用。但北上广三个城市旅游主要相关行业就业人数占第三产业就业人数比重方面存在显著差异,北京五大旅游相关产业就业人数在第三产比重最低,广州最高。从三个产业的增加值比较分析看,在北上广三个城市的就业弹性上,北京稳中有进,上海呈现微下滑状态,广州呈现负增长趋势。总之,通过分析,肯定了三个城市旅游经济在促进当地GDP、外汇收入以及提供直接和间接就业增长方面的贡献。三个城市的旅游经济对整体GDP的带动作用并不是并驾齐驱的,旅游经济效应也是随着年份的推进呈现波动式前进,出现这些问题的原因是多样的,与各个城市旅游资源丰富程度、产业结构以及旅游发展政策有密切的关系。
[Abstract]:Since the 1960s , the world tourism has entered the era of high - speed development . Since the reform and opening - up , the tourism industry in China has been rapidly developing , the status of tourism in the national economy has been promoted significantly , and the tourism industry has been gradually grown into the national strategic pillar industry . The economic effect of tourism is not only related to the development of tourism itself , but also affects the development of regional economy . It is of great significance to evaluate the contribution level of tourism to regional economy , to clarify the position and role of tourism in the national economy , to better develop tourism and promote the development of regional economy . As a pioneer of urban economic development in China , Beijing , Shanghai and Guangzhou ( hereinafter referred to as the North ) are examples of urban tourism development in China , so this paper has selected the three cities as a model for the development of urban tourism . In order to study the need , this paper collects relevant data between 2003 and 2011 , and defines the contents of the tourism economic effect in North China on the background of tourism economy , income effect , foreign exchange income and employment effect . First , in the area of tourism income in the city of Guangzhou , the tourism revenue of Beijing and Shanghai is the lowest in three cities from 2003 to 2011 . The proportion of tourism income in Beijing and Shanghai is higher than that in Beijing and Shanghai . In the last nine years , the tourism revenue of Shanghai is the highest in the third industry , the second is Beijing . In the end of the year , the tourism income in Beijing and Guangzhou is higher than that of local GDP , and the fit degree is 0.997 47 and 0.994 86 respectively . Secondly , the tourism foreign exchange income in Guangzhou is higher than Beijing and Shanghai . In the first place , the tourism foreign exchange income in Guangzhou is higher than Beijing and Shanghai . The highest annual rate of tourism foreign exchange income in Guangzhou is 36.07 % in 2011 , the second is Beijing . Secondly , the contribution rate of tourism revenue to GDP is the largest in Guangzhou . In the end , the contribution rate to GDP is very high in Beijing and Shanghai from 2005 to July 2011 . Third , in the aspect of the tourism employment effect of the three cities in North China , the employment capacity of the three cities in North China is relatively large , which plays a very important role in promoting local employment . However , the employment numbers of the three major tourism - related industries in North China are the lowest in the third industry and the highest in Guangzhou . In conclusion , by analyzing and analyzing the contribution of the three cities ' tourism economy in promoting local GDP , foreign exchange income and providing direct and indirect employment growth , the tourism economy of the three cities is not the driving effect of the whole GDP , and the tourism economic effect is gradually advancing along with the advancing of the year . The reasons for these problems are diverse , which are closely related to the rich degree , the industrial structure and the tourism development policy of various cities .

【学位授予单位】：上海师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F592.7

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