海峡两岸货币政策差异与协调机制研究

发布时间：2018-01-06 22:20

本文关键词：海峡两岸货币政策差异与协调机制研究　出处：《福州大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济全球化使一国经济政策运行无法独善其身,“溢出效应”和“溢入效应”制约着政策目标的实现。因此,政策协调成为各国的理性选择。货币政策协调是指国家(或地区)之间协调各自货币政策以消除政策对彼此的负面溢出效应,最终实现经济目标的行为。受到历史因素影响,大陆与台湾地区在经济发展水平、制度安排、货币管理机构政策偏好等方面存在差异,导致两岸货币政策必然存在不相协调的现象。建立符合两岸共同利益的货币政策协调机制,不仅有助于将两岸货币管理机构高层次沟通交流贯穿货币政策始末,化解不必要的政策矛盾和利益冲突,更有助于提升各自的政策效果,实现区域经济的合作共赢。本文围绕海峡两岸货币政策差异与协调这一主线,通过缜密理论论证和构建计量模型进行探讨。笔者明确提出,海峡两岸货币政策差异主要表现在货币政策运行环境、货币政策工具使用偏好、货币政策传导机制、货币政策实施效果等方面,并采用定性研究和定量研究相结合的方法,对此展开详实论述。在此基础上,本文以经济增长指标和通货膨胀指标作为被解释变量,利用海峡两岸1990至2013年的数据建立向量自回归模型,通过实证方法来验证具体的差异对政策效果的不同影响。上述研究表明,台湾地区在货币政策运行环境的深度和广度上优于大陆,大陆偏好使用数量型工具而台湾地区更多使用价格型工具,大陆货币政策传导机制以信贷渠道为主而台湾地区侧重货币渠道,大陆货币政策对促进经济增长的效果较好,台湾地区货币政策对抑制通胀的效果更佳。加强海峡两岸货币政策之间的协调是解决政策差异问题的必经之路。自1987年以来,海峡两岸货币合作日趋深化,大陆和台湾地区也具备了经济同周期性、相互依存性、外部冲击对称性等政策协调的基础性条件。因此,本文建议海峡两岸货币政策协调应当充分考虑两岸关系的特殊性,配合政治经济发展形势,由易到难,由非正式到正式,由民间到官方,由部分协调到全面协调,逐步推进。注重货币政策协调规则性机制和相机性机制设构,建立并完善信息共享、争端解决、风险防范等相关机制。
[Abstract]:Economic globalization makes the operation of a country's economic policy unavoidable, and "spillover effect" and "spillover effect" restrict the realization of policy goal. Policy coordination is the rational choice of countries. Monetary policy coordination refers to the coordination of monetary policies between countries (or regions) in order to eliminate the negative spillover effects of policies on each other. Under the influence of historical factors, there are differences in the level of economic development, institutional arrangements, policy preferences of monetary management agencies between the mainland and Taiwan. The establishment of a monetary policy coordination mechanism that conforms to the common interests of the two sides of the strait is not only conducive to the high-level communication and exchange between the two monetary management agencies throughout the monetary policy. To resolve unnecessary policy conflicts and conflicts of interest will help to improve the effectiveness of their respective policies and achieve win-win regional economic cooperation. This paper focuses on the differences and coordination of cross-strait monetary policy. The author clearly points out that the difference of monetary policy between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is mainly manifested in the operating environment of monetary policy and the preference of the use of monetary policy tools. Monetary policy transmission mechanism, monetary policy implementation effect and so on, and uses the qualitative research and the quantitative research unifies the method, carries on the detailed elaboration to this. On this basis. In this paper, the economic growth index and inflation index are taken as the explanatory variables, and the vector autoregressive model is established by using the data from the two sides of the Taiwan Strait from 1990 to 2013. Through the empirical method to verify the different effects of specific differences on the policy effect. The above research shows that Taiwan is better than the mainland in the depth and breadth of the monetary policy environment. The mainland prefers to use quantitative tools while Taiwan uses more price-based tools. The transmission mechanism of monetary policy in mainland China is mainly credit channels and Taiwan focuses on monetary channels. Mainland monetary policy has a better effect on promoting economic growth. Monetary policy in Taiwan is better at curbing inflation. Strengthening coordination between monetary policies across the Taiwan Strait is the only way to address policy differences. Since 1987. The monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is deepening day by day, and the mainland and Taiwan also have the basic conditions for the coordination of policies such as economic periodicity, interdependence, symmetry of external shocks and so on. This paper suggests that the coordination of monetary policy between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait should fully consider the particularity of cross-strait relations, coordinate with the political and economic development situation, from easy to difficult, from informal to formal, from private to official. From partial coordination to overall coordination, we should pay attention to the establishment of monetary policy coordination, regular mechanism and camera mechanism, and establish and perfect the relevant mechanisms such as information sharing, dispute settlement, risk prevention and so on.
【学位授予单位】：福州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F821.0

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