人力资本承载力与区域经济增长动态关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-12 14:42

本文关键词：人力资本承载力与区域经济增长动态关系研究　出处：《经济问题探索》2015年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文在建立人力资本承载力评价指标体系的基础上,运用熵值法和综合评价法对河南省1988-2013年人力资本承载力进行测算,采用时间序列单位根检验、协整关系检验及格兰杰因果关系分析,通过构建VAR向量自回归模型和脉冲响应函数对人力资本承载力与河南省区域经济增长的动态关系进行了分析。研究结果表明:(1)河南省人力资本承载力水平呈逐年上升的态势,并且近年来增幅较大;(2)人力资本承载力与区域经济增长之间存在唯一的协整关系和双向因果关系;(3)脉冲响应结果显示在短期内区域经济增长对人力资本承载力的影响显著;人力资本承载力对区域经济表现为先负后正的影响,但其促进作用还未充分发挥;区域经济增长对自身新息的响应路径与人力资本承载力对自身新息的响应路径均在前期表现明显,但都不具有持久性。鉴于此,河南省在发展区域经济的过程中,应努力提高科技创新能力,转变投资观念,注重人力资本与物质资本的优化配置,加快劳动力就业结构的转变,优化城市资源环境,提高人力资本的承载力水平,在实现人力资本承载力提升的基础上有效提高区域经济发展水平。
[Abstract]:This paper establishes the evaluation index system of human capital capacity, 1988-2013 years in Henan province human capital capacity calculated by entropy method and comprehensive evaluation method, the time series unit root test, cointegration analysis and causality test Grainger, by constructing a VAR vector from the dynamic relationship between regional economic growth and the function of bearing force Henan Province human capital regression model and impulse response are analyzed. The results show that: (1) the horizontal bearing capacity of human capital in Henan province showed a rising trend, and in recent years a larger increase; (2) there is the only co integration relationship and bidirectional causality between regional economic growth and the bearing force of human capital; (3) the impulse response results show that in the short term economic growth had a significant impact on human capital carrying capacity; carrying capacity of human capital on regional economic performance for the first negative and then positive The effect, but also did not give full play to its role in promoting regional economic growth; response path and human capital on its innovation capacity in response to new information on their own path are obvious in the early stage, but not with persistence. In view of this, Henan Province in the regional economic development process, efforts should be made to improve science and technology innovation ability, change the concept of investment, optimize the allocation of human capital and material capital, accelerate the transformation of employment structure, optimize the city resources environment, improve the level of carrying capacity of human capital, the level of regional economic development to improve the effective realization of human capital based on lifting capacity.

【作者单位】：河南大学;
【基金】：河南省科技厅软科学项目,“人力资本承载力对区域经济增长的影响研究”(项目编号:132400410631),主持人:任乐河南省教育厅人文社科项目,“中原经济区人力资本承载力评价与提升策略研究”(项目编号:2012-QN-057),主持人:任乐
【分类号】：F249.27;F127;F224
【正文快照】： 一、引言人力资本对经济增长的贡献毋庸置疑,但是人力资本的使用效率不仅取决于其数量和质量,更取决于其承载力的强弱。承载力是一个与资源禀赋、技术手段、社会选择和价值观念等密切相关的、具有相对极限内涵的伦理特征的概念,通常被定义为“一个生态系统在维持生命机体的再

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