台海两岸经济系统自组织发展研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 14:07

本文关键词：台海两岸经济系统自组织发展研究　出处：《北京工业大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：台海两岸经济发展不是孤立的，两岸经济合则两利，分则两伤。两岸之间的物质流动、信息流动不断加速，双方在地缘优势、自然资源、人力资源等方面也存在巨大互补性，这促使两岸经济的依存关系不断加强。维持保护好两岸经济系统正常运行，促进其健康发展，将对实现两岸经济发展目标产生很大帮助，这就要求管理者深入了解经济系统自组织发展的规律与条件，在此基础上根据环境变化对系统进行优化，使之能够自行应对来自内外部的冲击。因此，研究经济系统自组织发展的一般规律，寻找其显著特征及优化方式，结合实际条件对两岸经济系统进行分析，在当前我国加快转变经济发展方式的时期，具有突出的理论与实践意义。目前关于台海经济系统的文献有很多，主要集中于两岸经济互补性和经济整合方面的研究，还有一些学者从两岸经济中某一特定方面的变化来分析两岸经济发展机制。总体来看，这些研究都是根据经济数据和经济现状来探察经济系统发展情况，以数据为入手点分析经济系统内部结构。而本文以探明台海两岸经济系统自组织发展的各阶段特点为出发点，再通过两岸双方对外贸易数据、产品数量、企业会计指标等实际数据，透视区域经济系统的启动发展全过程，是一种正向的思维分析过程。影响经济系统自组织发展的各个因素环环相扣，台海两岸经济系统的基本环境、有序化程度、协同竞争因素、序参量带领作用及经济一体化进程都将对其自身产生深远影响。只有保护好台海两岸经济系统中已有的自组织发展条件并逐步从宏观、产业、微观等层面多角度优化两岸经济系统，才能使之为两岸社会经济发展作出更大贡献。本文的主要工作是运用自组织理论，结合经济系统理论、博弈论对两岸经济系统的启动条件、发展动力、发展趋势进行具体分析，并根据台海两岸经济系统的特点，针对两岸经济一体化发展提出政策建议，这为研究双边经贸关系、探索区域经济系统自组织演化过程提供了思路和框架。本文的主要研究成果有：（1）提出了台海两岸经济系统自组织发展的三种基本表象，建立了系统内部产业协同竞争策略选择博弈模型，指出两岸经贸合作将趋向于协同合作，，并进一步提出台海两岸经济系统一体化发展将实现子系统内部的反应循环、子系统间的催化反应循环和大陆与台湾子空间系统之间的超循环。（2）在分析得出台海两岸经济系统具备开启自组织发展基本条件的基础上，建立了基于熵流分析的台海两岸经济系统耗散结构模型，选取了大陆与台湾之间的6个区域流和6个经济势，得出台海两岸经济系统的有序化程度正在不断增加，并将延续这种增长态势的结论。（3）提出序参量因素是区域经济系统自组织发展动力的主导因素，分析了台海两岸经济系统中序参量的产生过程，并以两岸LED产业为例，建立了台海两岸产业协同发展模型，并根据伺服原理，采用绝热消去法，确定系统的序参量。（4）利用模糊层次分析法，计算得出了近十年来两岸经贸协同度提高近一倍的结论，提出促进台海两岸经济系统自组织发展的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The economic development of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is not isolated, the cross-strait economic cooperation benefits both, of the two injuries. The material flow between the two sides, the two sides in the accelerating flow of information, geographical advantages, natural resources, there are also great complementarity of human resources, the cross-strait economic relations have been strengthened. By maintaining the normal operation of protection on both sides the economic system, to promote their healthy development, will have great help to realize the goal of economic development, which requires managers in-depth understanding of rules and conditions of self organization for economic system development, on the basis of the system optimization environment changes, so that it can deal with the self from the internal and external impact. Therefore, the general rules of self organization the development of economic system, for its remarkable characteristics and optimization methods, combined with the actual conditions of the cross-strait economic system in China to accelerate the transformation of economic development The period of the way of exhibition has outstanding theoretical and practical significance.
At present, there are a lot of Taiwan economic system literature, mainly focus on cross-strait economic complementarity and economic integration, and analyses some scholars from both sides of economic change in a particular aspect of the development of cross-strait economic mechanism. Overall, these studies are according to the economic data and economic situation to explore economic system development the data for the starting point, to analyze the internal structure of economic system. The characteristics of the various stages of this economic system to explore cross-strait self organization development as the starting point, the two sides of foreign trade data, the number of products, the actual data of the enterprise accounting indicators, the whole process of the Perspective of regional economic system and start the development, is a positive thinking of the analysis process. Various factors affecting economic interlocking self organization system development, the basic environment and economy system across the Taiwan Strait, the orderly degree of synergy Competitive factors, the order parameter lead role and economic integration will have a profound impact on its own. Only to protect the existing economic system of cross-strait self organization in the development conditions and gradually from the macroscopic and microcosmic angles of industry, optimize the cross-strait economic system, to make the cross-strait economic and social development and make greater contributions.
The main work of this paper is using self organization theory, combined with economic system theory, dynamic game theory starting conditions, on both sides of the development of the economic system, analyze the development trend of economic system, and according to the characteristics of the two sides of the Strait, for the development of cross-strait economic integration and put forward some policy suggestions, for the study of bilateral economic and trade relations, provides the ideas and framework to explore the self organization evolution process of regional economic system.
The main research results of this paper are as follows:
(1) put forward three basic idea from the organization development of economic system of both sides of the Taiwan Strait, established within the industry system of cooperative competition strategy selection game model, pointed out that cross-strait economic and trade cooperation will tend to cooperate, and further put forward the integration of cross-strait economic system development will achieve the reaction cycle within the subsystem, between the catalytic cycle and the mainland with the Taiwan sub space system between the super cycle.
(2) in the analysis of economic system on both sides of the Taiwan Strait have open based self organization development basic conditions, establish the dissipative structure model of cross-strait economic system based on entropy analysis, selects between the mainland and Taiwan 6 regions and 6 economic potential flow, the degree of order was issued two bank sea economic system is increasing, and will continue the growth results.
(3) the order parameters of power factor is the dominant factor of self organization system of regional economy development, analyzes the generating process of order parameters in cross strait economic system, and on both sides of the LED industry as an example, a model of collaborative development of cross-strait industry, and according to the principle of servo, the adiabatic elimination method, determine the order parameter of system.
(4) using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP), we have calculated nearly twice the degree of cross-strait economic and trade synergy in the past ten years, and put forward policy recommendations to promote the self-organized development of cross-strait economic system.

【学位授予单位】：北京工业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127

【参考文献】