湖北省人口年龄结构对经济增长的影响及对策研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 21:07

本文关键词：湖北省人口年龄结构对经济增长的影响及对策研究　出处：《武汉理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：人口问题是影响社会经济可持续发展的首要问题，人口结构的转变直接影响区域经济发展，是制定区域经济发展规划的重要考虑指标之一，能否有效解决人口结构问题直接影响着区域经济可持续发展与否。随着经济社会发展、医疗服务水平的不断提高和计划生育政策实施，，我国的人口规模也就是人口增长率已经得到有效控制，人们关注的焦点逐渐由人口规模转向人口结构的研究。人口结构与经济协调发展是经济发展的前提，也是21世纪我们研究人口问题的核心。尤其是，2013年两会期间的决议,人口和计划生育委员会被撤销,多地对二胎政策有所放开。不同的年龄阶段具有不同的经济行为，所以人口年龄结构的变动，必然通过影响一系列中间变量最终影响到经济增长。本文在系统阐述研究人口结构问题的背景和意义的前提下，首先对已有的国内外文献进行梳理综述。本文的主体主要是从人口年龄结构与经济增长的理论出发，系统地从人口年龄结构影响储蓄、投资和国际收支，从而间接影响经济增长的三驾马车，分析了人口结构变化与经济增长的作用机理。然后通过搜集湖北省历年人口结构变化的数据，比如人口总量、性别比、出生率、死亡率、自然增长率、各年龄阶段所占比重、抚养比等方面与全国数据进行比较，比较全面总结了湖北省人口结构的变化，并分析了湖北省人口年龄结构未来的发展趋势和变化原因。论文的最主要部分就是定量分析湖北省人口年龄结构与经济发展是否是相互协调的，实证表明湖北省的65岁以上人口的增长，和全国水平相比，我们属于基本协调型，加之莫龙等人的研究已经表明，我们国家的整体情况相对于世界发达国家来说就是超前型，所以湖北省的人口老龄化相对于经济发展来说是比较超前的。另一方面就是通过定量研究湖北省劳动年龄人口对经济增长的贡献率，结果显示湖北劳动力人口对经济增长的贡献率2000-2013年贡献率逐步增加，但是和全国总体水平相比，还是有较大差距，并且有逐渐拉大的趋势。最后结合湖北省实际提出切实可行的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Population problem is the most important problem affecting the sustainable development of social economy. The change of population structure directly affects the development of regional economy and is one of the important consideration indexes in formulating regional economic development plan. Whether the population structure can be effectively solved directly affects the sustainable development of regional economy. With the development of economy and society, the continuous improvement of medical service level and the implementation of family planning policy, the population size of our country, that is, population growth rate, has been effectively controlled. The focus of attention has gradually shifted from the population scale to the study of population structure. The coordinated development of population structure and economy is the premise of economic development and the core of our research on population problem in 21th century. In 2013, the National people's Congress and Family Planning Commission were abolished, and the policy of two-child was liberalized. Different ages have different economic behaviors, so the age structure of the population changes. Inevitably through the influence of a series of intermediate variables will ultimately affect economic growth. This paper systematically describes the background and significance of the study of population structure. The main body of this paper is mainly from the age structure of population and economic growth theory, systematically from the age structure of the population to affect savings, investment and balance of payments. Thus indirectly affect the economic growth of the troika, analyzed the mechanism of population structure changes and economic growth. Then through the collection of past years of population structure changes in Hubei Province data, such as the total population, sex ratio. The birth rate, death rate, natural growth rate, the proportion of each age stage, the dependency ratio and so on are compared with the national data, and the changes of population structure in Hubei Province are summarized comprehensively. The main part of the paper is to analyze whether the population age structure and economic development of Hubei Province is coordinated. Empirical results show that the growth of the population over 65 years of age in Hubei Province, compared with the national level, we belong to the basic coordination type, in addition to the study of Moron and others has shown. The overall situation in our country is more advanced than that of the developed countries in the world. Therefore, the population aging in Hubei Province is more advanced than the economic development. On the other hand, the contribution rate of the working-age population to economic growth in Hubei Province is studied quantitatively. The results show that the contribution rate of Hubei labor force population to economic growth gradually increased from 2000 to 2013, but compared with the overall level of the country, there is still a big gap. And there is a tendency to expand gradually. Finally, practical policy suggestions are put forward combined with the actual situation in Hubei Province.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：C924.24;F127

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