航空产业园规划风险识别与控制研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 21:00

本文关键词： 航空产业园规划风险识别风险评价风险控制　出处：《南京航空航天大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：航空产业在当今社会中被誉为“现代工业之花”，其发展水平往往代表了一个国家的综合实力。随着大飞机项目的上马和低空空域的逐步开放，我国航空产业迎来了高速发展期。在这样的时代浪潮下，各城市为响应国家战略部署，提升区域经济发展，加快产业转型升级，纷纷开展航空产业园规划。绍兴也在这样的发展背景下，规划新建航空产业园。但是在这样风风火火的势头背后，也存在一系列规划风险。本文以航空产业园的规划风险为研究对象，首先通过设计基于风险核对的鱼刺骨模型和问卷研究，建立了航空产业园规划风险识别模型，将其应用到绍兴航空产业园中，获得了风险指标体系，实现了对风险的显性认识；其次设计了基于粗糙集定权的模糊综合评价模型并将其应用到绍兴航空产业园中，对各风险因子进行权重衡量，确定了整体项目的风险程度；最后构建了基于COSO理论的航空产业园风险控制体系，将其应用到绍兴航空产业园中，设计出绍兴航空产业园风险控制五大体系，并增加了风险预测，采用灰色预测模型，实现了对规划风险的中长期预测。本文在传统风险管理理念的基础上，通过定性与定量结合，实现了对整体风险的把控，，过程连贯且具有说服性，有效实现了对航空产业园规划风险的全面管控。
[Abstract]:The aviation industry is praised as "the flower of modern industry" in the present society, its development level often represents the comprehensive strength of a country. China's aviation industry has ushered in a period of rapid development. In this era, cities in response to the national strategic deployment, promote regional economic development, accelerate industrial transformation and upgrading. Shaoxing also plans to build a new aviation industry park against such a background. But there are a series of planning risks behind the momentum of such a storm. In this paper, the planning risk of aviation industry park as the research object, first of all, through the design of risk check based on the fish puncture model and questionnaire research, establish the aviation industry park planning risk identification model. Applying it to Shaoxing Aviation Industry Park, the risk index system is obtained and the explicit understanding of risk is realized. Secondly, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on rough set is designed and applied to Shaoxing Aviation Industry Park. The weight of each risk factor is measured, and the risk degree of the whole project is determined. Finally, the paper constructs the risk control system of aviation industry park based on COSO theory, applies it to Shaoxing aviation industry park, designs five risk control systems of Shaoxing aviation industry park, and increases risk prediction. The medium and long term forecast of planning risk is realized by using grey forecasting model. Based on the traditional idea of risk management, this paper realizes the control of the whole risk through the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, and the process is consistent and persuasive. Effective implementation of the aviation industry park planning risk control.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.5

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