自由贸易区贸易创造与贸易转移效应的国际比较研究

发布时间：2018-01-31 09:48

本文关键词： 自由贸易区贸易创造效应贸易转移效应　出处：《浙江工业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：世界经济发展经验表明,自由贸易区的发展会促进成员国的经济增长和福利水平的变化。自由贸易协定的签订给成员国之间的贸易带来显著的增长效应,同时也可能给成员国和非成员国之间的贸易带来不同程度的负面影响。现有自由贸易区效应的研究主要是以某一特定自由贸易区贸易效应为研究对象,研究单一自由贸易区带来的贸易创造与贸易转移效应。本文则选取“北北型”、“南北型”、“南南型”三种不同类型的自由贸易区为研究对象,对欧盟、北美自由贸易区和中国—东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应进行了比较分析。现状分析中主要以三个自由贸易区1986—2012年的内外部进出口贸易数据为基础,从整体贸易规模、内部贸易结构、外部市场结构、主要贸易商品结构四个角度全面考察了自由贸易区的成立给成员国和主要贸易伙伴国带来的影响,实证部分则主要通过在引力模型中添加虚拟变量的方式,测算并比较了三个自由贸易区贸易创造与贸易转移效应的大小。现状及实证研究结果显示：中国—东盟自由贸易区区内贸易比重小于北美自由贸易区,更远小于欧盟,说明中国—东盟自由贸易区尚处于较低水平的区域经济一体化阶段；欧盟成员国整体经济发展水平较高,其贸易创造效应也最大,而贸易转移效应则仅在以中国—东盟自由贸易区为代表的“南南型”自由贸易区中产生；同时自由贸易区的成立促使成员间贸易商品结构得到优化和调整,并给原有相对关税水平较高、贸易壁垒较多、贸易基础薄弱的国家带来了更多的好处。最后,根据研究结论提出相关的政策建议,认为中国及其他国家未来在选择贸易伙伴国签订自由贸易协定时应考虑以下三点：积极与经济发展水平较高的国家签订自由贸易协定、积极开展产业内贸易合作以规避贸易转移给成员国和非成员国带来的损失风险、积极寻求与原有相对关税水平高、贸易壁垒较多的经济发展水平较高的国家签订自由贸易协定。
[Abstract]:The experience of world economic development shows that the development of free trade area will promote the change of economic growth and welfare level of member countries, and the signing of free trade agreement will bring significant growth effect to the trade among member countries. At the same time, it may also bring different negative effects to the trade between member and non-member countries. The current research on the effect of free trade area is mainly focused on the trade effect of a specific free trade area. This paper studies the effect of trade creation and trade transfer brought by single Free Trade area, and chooses three different types of free trade zones, namely "North North", "North North", "South South" and "South-South", as the research object. The trade effects of NAFTA and China-ASEAN Free Trade area (CAFTA) are compared and analyzed. The present situation analysis is based on the internal and external import and export trade data of three free trade zones from 1986 to 2012. . From the overall trade scale, the internal trade structure, the external market structure, the main trade commodity structure, has comprehensively examined the free trade area establishment to the member country and the main trading partner country influence. The empirical part is mainly by adding virtual variables to the gravity model. This paper calculates and compares the trade creation and trade transfer effect of the three free trade zones. The present situation and empirical results show that the proportion of trade in China-ASEAN Free Trade area is smaller than that in North America Free Trade area. Far less than the European Union, indicating that China-ASEAN Free Trade area is still in a lower level of regional economic integration; The overall economic development level of EU member countries is relatively high, the trade creation effect is also the largest, and the trade transfer effect is only produced in the "South-South" free trade area represented by China-ASEAN Free Trade area. At the same time, the establishment of the Free Trade area promotes the optimization and adjustment of trade commodity structure among members, and brings more benefits to the countries with higher relative tariff level, more trade barriers and weak trade base. According to the conclusions of the study, the relevant policy recommendations are put forward. It is suggested that China and other countries should consider the following three points when choosing trade partner countries to sign free trade agreements in the future: to sign free trade agreements with countries with a higher level of economic development. Actively carry out intra-industry trade cooperation to avoid the risk of loss caused by trade transfer to member countries and non-members, and actively seek high relative tariff levels with the original. Countries with higher levels of economic development with more trade barriers sign free trade agreements.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F746

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