我国新型城镇化系统动态机制研究

发布时间：2018-03-10 18:07

本文选题：新型城镇化　切入点：综合评价　出处：《山西财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：现阶段,我国正处于全面建成小康社会的关键时刻,而经济发展中枢的下移却为我们带来挑战。为此,必须寻找新的经济增长点。而城镇化水平的提高对培育国家内需有积极影响。但是,由于城镇化的盲目扩张,致使各地出现生态环境恶化、能源过度浪费、交通极其拥堵、房价疯狂上涨等各式样问题。在此背景下,党中央、国务院在2014年发布了《国家新型城镇化规划(2014-2020)》,对新型城镇化的发展模式做出了顶层设计。基于此,本文着重对新型城镇化的相关问题进行研究,这有助于我们进一步对该问题的认识。此外,新型城镇化的发展对经济持续稳定增长、产业结构转型升级、解决我国三农问题和区域经济协调发展问题都具有重大的现实意义。本文首先界定了城市化、城镇化以及新型城镇化的概念,并结合国务院印发的《国家新型城镇化规划(2014-2020)》,从人口、经济、社会和生态(政府整治生态环境所做的努力)四个方面构建了新型城镇化的评价指标体系,以2005-2014年省级面板数据为依据,在综合比较多种客观评价法后,最终选取变异系数法对新型城镇化进行了综合测评。研究发现,新型城镇化四个子系统的发展水平在过去十年都有不同程度的提高。然而,区域内,它们四者之间是如何相互影响的呢?区域间,它们又是否存在空间上的关联呢?带着上述问题,我们通过面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)以及空间相关性理论来加以分析。实证分析发现:第一,新型城镇化四个子系统之间会相互影响,且受经济发展和人口素质提高的影响较大,而政府对生态环境的大力整顿以及社会公共服务水平的改善则影响相对较小;第二,长期来看,经济的发展以及人口素质的上升会使新型城镇化四个子系统发生波动,而政府对生态环境的大力整顿以及社会公共服务水平的提高则会促进新型城镇化四个子系统的发展;第三,区域间,新型城镇化四个子系统都存在一定的空间关联。其中,经济城镇化的关联性最强,社会城镇化的关联性最弱。且在过去十年,它们的空间关联性都有不同程度的加强;第四,新型城镇化的发展水平存在集聚现象,尤其在京津地区、长三角地区、珠三角地区较为明显,而且有进一步向周围地区扩散的趋势。
[Abstract]:At present, our country is in the crucial moment completed a comprehensive well-off society, and the economic development of central down for us challenges. Therefore, we must find a new economic growth point. And the improvement of the level of urbanization has a positive influence on the cultivation of domestic demand. However, due to the blind expansion of urbanization, resulting in the emergence of ecological country the deterioration of the environment, excessive waste of energy, traffic is extremely congested, crazy prices rise and other style. Under this background, the Party Central Committee, the State Council issued the "national planning of new towns in 2014 (2014-2020) >, the development model of new urbanization to make top-level design. Based on this, this paper focuses on the research of related problems the new type of urbanization, which helps us to further understanding of the problem. In addition, the development of new urbanization for sustained and stable economic growth, transformation and upgrading of industrial structure, to solve our country agriculture ask It is of great practical significance and problems of coordinated development of regional economy. This paper first defines the concept of city, urbanization and new urbanization, combined with the "State Council issued national new urbanization plan (2014-2020) >, from the population, economy, society and Ecology (the ecological and environmental remediation efforts) four aspects of the construction of the new urbanization evaluation index system, with the provincial panel data of 2005-2014 years on the basis of objective evaluation on comprehensive comparison of various method, finally select the coefficient of variation of the new urbanization conducted a comprehensive evaluation. The study found that the level of development of the four subsystems of new towns are improved to different degrees in over the past ten years. However, in the region, among them four are how to influence each other? The area between them and whether there was a link on the space? With the above problems, we through the panel vector Autoregressive model (PVAR) and spatial correlation theory to analysis. Empirical analysis shows that: first, among the four subsystems will influence each other and affected by the new urbanization, economic development and improve the quality of the population is large, and the government to rectify the ecological environment and improve the social public service level is relatively small; second the long term, the development of economy and increase of population quality will make new urbanization four subsystems fluctuate, development and the government to rectify the ecological environment and social public service level will promote the new urbanization of the four subsystems; third, the area between four subsystems are the new town space a relationship. Among them, the strongest correlation between economy and urbanization, the weakest correlation of social urbanization. And in the past ten years, the spatial association of them have different process Fourth, the development level of new urbanization has agglomeration phenomenon. Especially in Beijing Tianjin area, the Yangtze River Delta region is more obvious in the Pearl River Delta region, and there is a trend of further spread to the surrounding areas.

【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.21

【参考文献】