基于投影寻踪技术的水资源承载力评价方法研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 10:16

  本文选题：水资源承载力　切入点：指标体系　出处：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城市人口膨胀、经济迅速发展使得城市用水紧张日益加剧,同时水生态环境不断恶化,严重威胁到城市的持续发展和水资源的良性循环。区域的水资源承载力一直是国内外研究的热点,特别是水资源承载力的评价方法和评价指标体系的研究。建立科学合理的水资源承载力评价指标体系和评价方法,对于清楚认识区域水资源承载力状况,确定影响水资源承载力的关键因素,制定科学合理的区域经济发展和水资源利用规划,具有重要的理论指导意义和实际应用价值。水资源承载力研究涉及水资源、经济、社会、生态相互耦合的复杂系统,具有开放性和不确定性,因此评价结果的客观性和可靠性不易把握。考虑到评价指标的模糊性和不确定性,以及传统评价方法权重确定的困难性,本文利用投影寻踪技术可自动实现指标筛选和权重确定的特点,将其用于水资源承载力评价,并应用于四大直辖市的实证研究。主要研究内容和成果如下:首先,对国内外水资源承载力评价指标体系和评价方法的研究进展进行了综述,并分析了当前指标体系和评价方法存在的问题;其次,在研究水资源承载力的内涵、评价目的及相关理论等的基础上,分析了影响水资源承载力的主要因素,提出了评价指标体系的设计原则,建立了具有普适性的水资源承载力评价指标体系,并确定了评价标准及等级。最后,以上述指标体系为基础,分析了投影寻踪技术应用于水资源承载力评价的适用性,建立了投影寻踪等级评价模型,并将其用于四大直辖市的实证研究。采用遗传算法对该模型进行求解,得到最佳投影向量,进而根据各指标的投影特征值分量确定了影响各城市水资源承载力的“优势指标”和“短板指标”,对评价结果进行了综合分析,并从开源、结构调整、技术、管理、生态保障等五个方面提出了提高水资源承载力的措施。评价结果表明:2012年四大直辖市的水资源承载力均属于Ⅲ级水平,其中上海接近Ⅱ级水平,天津接近Ⅳ级水平,水资源承载力按照从高到低的顺序依次是上海重庆北京天津;该方法较其他综合评价方法具有较高的稳定性和易操作性,避免了指标权重确定的主观性和不确定性,而且可以同时作为指标体系的筛选方法,优化指标体系,评价结果具有较高的精度和区分度,可广泛用于各种评价问题。
[Abstract]:Urban population expansion, rapid economic development, urban water tension is increasing, and the water ecological environment is deteriorating. It is a serious threat to the sustainable development of cities and the virtuous circle of water resources. The carrying capacity of regional water resources has always been a hot research topic at home and abroad. Especially, the research on the evaluation method and evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity, the establishment of scientific and reasonable evaluation index system and evaluation method of water resources carrying capacity, is helpful for the clear understanding of the status of water resources carrying capacity in the region. It is of great theoretical significance and practical value to determine the key factors affecting the carrying capacity of water resources and to formulate scientific and rational regional economic development and water resources utilization planning. The research of water resources carrying capacity involves water resources, economy and society. The complex system of ecological coupling is open and uncertain, so the objectivity and reliability of evaluation results are difficult to grasp. Considering the fuzziness and uncertainty of evaluation index and the difficulty of weight determination of traditional evaluation methods, This paper uses projection pursuit technology to automatically realize the characteristics of index selection and weight determination, applies it to the assessment of water resources carrying capacity, and applies it to the empirical research of four municipalities directly under the Central Government. The main research contents and results are as follows: first, This paper summarizes the research progress of water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system and evaluation method at home and abroad, and analyzes the problems existing in the current index system and evaluation method. Secondly, the connotation of water resources carrying capacity is studied. On the basis of evaluation purpose and relevant theories, this paper analyzes the main factors affecting the carrying capacity of water resources, puts forward the design principles of the evaluation index system, and establishes a universal evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity. Finally, based on the above index system, the applicability of projection pursuit technology in water resources carrying capacity evaluation is analyzed, and a projection pursuit grade evaluation model is established. It is applied to the empirical research of four municipalities directly under the Central Government. The genetic algorithm is used to solve the model and the optimal projection vector is obtained. Then, according to the projection eigenvalue component of each index, the "superiority index" and "short board index" which affect the water resources carrying capacity of each city are determined, and the evaluation results are analyzed synthetically, and from the aspects of open source, structural adjustment, technology, management, etc. The evaluation results show that in 2012, the water resources carrying capacity of the four municipalities directly under the Central Government belongs to the level of 鈪，

本文编号：1605944