基于DEA模型的碳排放效率区域差异性研究

发布时间：2018-03-15 00:08

本文选题：碳排放效率　切入点：超效率三阶段DEA模型　出处：《湖南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来，我国经济高速发展，，人们生活水平得到很大提高，但经济增长方式的粗放性导致了各种能源资源的重度消耗和各种污染物的大量排放，我国为此付出了严重的资源环境代价。作为世界上最大的发展中国家，也作为最大的碳排放国家，我国背负着严峻的节能减排压力与动力。一直以来，我国经济发展存在巨大的区域差异，经济发展不平衡，东西部差距、城乡差距等问题始终存在，同时碳排放的区域差异问题尤其需要引起重视。由于影响二氧化碳排放的相关因素很多，比如地理因素、经济发展水平、产业结构、产权结构、能源消费结构、对外开放程度、投资水平、制度环境、城市化水平、能源价格等，这些影响因各省（市、区）情况的不同而不同，所以我国各省市地区的碳排放效率差异较为复杂。如果不考虑各地区的差异而盲目地硬性规定该地区的减排任务，显然有失妥当。区域差异性是区域经济发展过程中必须思考的问题，只有深入了解碳排放效率的区域差异性才能为节能减排总目标制定有针对性的、有效的政策建议。本文首先参照IPCC(2006)以及国家气候变化对策协调小组办公室和国家发改委能源研究所(2007)的方法，比较详细地估算了我国30个省市(直辖市、自治区)地区1997—2011年的二氧化碳排放量，并对二氧化碳排放的相关影响因素进行了定性及定量分析。从碳排放效率的角度出发，利用超效率DEA模型测度了我国各地区的碳排放水平及其动态变化并进行相互比较。实证结果发现：环境和随机误差因素对各省（市、区）碳排放效率具有显著影响，这充分体现出本文所采用的模型的合理性、科学性和优越性。从实证结果还可以明显看到，从整体上看，我国碳排放效率呈上升趋势，但上升速度缓慢，提升空间很大。从横向来看，各省市碳排放效率水平差距逐年增大，碳排放效率最高与最低之间的差额增大趋势明显。最后对各省（市、区）的碳排放效率值进行聚类分析，根据聚类分析结果可将我国的碳排放情况分为三种模式，即碳排放高效区、中效区和低效区。最后，本文对我国经济发展的低碳路径进行思考。实现碳减排的目标，就要加快提高碳排放效率，制定出出符合我国实际的有针对性和科学性的碳减排政策。政府要加大对碳排放效率低的地区的扶持力度，增加碳排放高效区和低效区之间的相互沟通学习。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's rapid economic development, people's living standard has been greatly improved, but the extensive mode of economic growth resulted in a large amount of energy resources, heavy consumption and emissions of various pollutants, China paid a heavy cost of resources and environment. As the largest developing country in the world, but also as the largest carbon emitter. China is under pressure and power saving grim.
There has been great regional differences in China's economic development, economic development is uneven, the gap between East and West, the gap between urban and rural areas the problem always exists the problem of regional differences in carbon emissions at the same time especially need to pay attention to. Because there are many factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions, such as geographical factors, economic development level, industrial structure, structure of property rights. The energy consumption structure, degree of openness, the level of investment, institutional environment, city level, energy prices, the effect of provinces (city, district) because the situation is different, so the difference of carbon emission efficiency in various provinces and cities in China is more complicated. If we do not consider the regional differences and the mandatory blindly area reduction, is clearly inappropriate. The regional difference is in the process of regional economic development must consider the problem, only a deeper understanding to the regional difference of carbon emission efficiency Formulate effective and effective policy recommendations for the overall goal of energy conservation and emission reduction.
Firstly, according to the IPCC (2006) and the National Climate Change Coordination Group Office and the National Energy Research Institute (2007) method, detailed estimates of 30 provinces in China (municipalities, autonomous regions) carbon dioxide emissions in 1997 and 2011, and the related factors of carbon dioxide emissions are analyzed the qualitative and quantitative. Starting from the carbon emission efficiency point of view, the use of super efficiency DEA model to measure the level of carbon emissions and the dynamic changes of every area of our country and compared with each other. The empirical results show that: the environment and random error factors on the provinces (cities, districts) has a significant effect on carbon emission efficiency, which fully reflects the rationality of the the model, scientific and practical. It can be seen from the empirical results, on the whole, the efficiency of carbon emissions in China is rising, but rising slowly, empty Among the great. From the lateral view, provincial carbon emission efficiency gap is increasing year by year, increasing trend of carbon emission efficiency difference between the highest and lowest obviously. At the end of the provinces (cities, districts) carbon emission efficiency value of cluster analysis, cluster analysis based on the situation of China's carbon emissions can be divided into three modes that is, in effect, carbon emissions, and the inefficient zone.
Finally, the low-carbon path for China's economic development thinking. To achieve carbon reduction targets, it is necessary to speed up the improvement of carbon emission efficiency, set out in line with China's actual and targeted scientific carbon reduction policy. The government should increase the efficiency of carbon emissions in areas with low support efforts to increase carbon emissions high and inefficient zone of mutual communication and learning.

【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F205

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