太原市住宅市场供需均衡研究

发布时间：2018-03-16 03:25

本文选题：住宅市场　切入点：住宅需求　出处：《山西财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：住宅水平的高低是衡量区域经济发展和居民生活水平的重要标志之一。太原市的住宅制度改革在深化城市经济体制改革的背景下得到了极大的推动，住宅市场已经成为太原市市场体系的重要组成部分，住宅产业对城市经济增长的贡献率不断提高，其发展成果惠及了太原市大多数城镇居民。与此同时，日益上涨的房价、保障住宅的缺口加大、住宅的投资性需求上升等这些问题让我们意识到太原市住宅市场在供需均衡方面是存在问题的。因此，，为保证太原市住宅市场的健康发展，这些问题亟待解决。本文将太原市住宅市场作为研究对象，以住宅市场供给与需求理论作为基础，通过分析目前太原市住宅市场在供给和需求方面的状况及其影响因素，来研究太原市住宅供需均衡问题及其原因，并对此提出针对性的改善建议。在分析太原市住宅供需总量上，本文采用吸纳周期这一指标来代替空置率，这样可以更为科学的反映住宅市场上供需总量的相对能力以及消化市场空置量的能力，在此基础上，采用住宅市场供给需求比来进一步分析近年来太原市住宅供需总量的变化趋势。在分析太原市商品住宅供需结构上，本文通过建立住宅市场供需均衡模型，测算出太原市各年住宅供需均衡不匹配系数来判定近年来太原市住宅市场供需均衡状态。通过研究分析，得出的结论是太原市住宅市场在供需总量和供需结构两个方面都存在均衡问题。在住宅供需总量均衡方面，从2006年起太原市的商品住宅需求量一直高于供应量，处于供不应求的状态。仅在2011年出现短暂的供需近于持平的状态，这是因为2011年国家相继出台了一系列调控措施，对住宅价格的控制起到了明显的作用，从而一定程度上降低了当年的住宅需求量；在住宅供需结构均衡方面，太原市的住宅供需结构在2006年处于相对均衡状态，从2007年到2008年都处于一般失衡状态，而在2010年其供需结构出现严重失衡的状态。本文最后根据实证分析得出的结论，分析了目前太原市住宅市场供需均衡问题及原因。针对这些问题，文章从调整供需总量、改善供需结构以及加强宏观调控这三个方面提出了改善建议，以期促进太原市住宅市场供需均衡发展，从而达到促进太原市住宅市场良性健康发展的目的。
[Abstract]:The level of housing is one of the important symbols to measure the development of regional economy and the living standard of residents. The reform of housing system in Taiyuan has been greatly promoted under the background of deepening the reform of urban economic system. The housing market has become an important part of the market system in Taiyuan. The contribution of the housing industry to the urban economic growth has been increasing, and its development results have benefited most of the urban residents in Taiyuan. At the same time, the rising house prices, In order to ensure the healthy development of the housing market in Taiyuan, we realize that there are some problems in the supply and demand balance of the housing market in Taiyuan, such as the increasing gap of the guarantee housing and the rising demand for the investment of the housing. These problems need to be solved urgently. This paper takes the housing market of Taiyuan as the research object, taking the supply and demand theory of the housing market as the basis, through the analysis of the current situation of the supply and demand of the housing market in Taiyuan and its influencing factors. To study the problem of housing supply and demand balance in Taiyuan and its reasons, and put forward some suggestions to improve it. In the analysis of the total amount of housing supply and demand in Taiyuan, this paper adopts the index of absorption period to replace the vacancy rate. In this way, we can more scientifically reflect the relative capacity of the total supply and demand in the housing market and the ability to digest the vacant amount in the market. On this basis, This paper further analyzes the changing trend of the total supply and demand of housing in Taiyuan by using the ratio of supply and demand in the housing market. On the basis of analyzing the supply and demand structure of commercial housing in Taiyuan, this paper establishes the equilibrium model of supply and demand in the housing market. The mismatch coefficient of housing supply and demand equilibrium in Taiyuan is calculated to judge the supply and demand equilibrium of Taiyuan residential market in recent years. Through research and analysis, it is concluded that there are equilibrium problems in both supply and demand and supply and demand structure in Taiyuan housing market. Since 2006, the demand for commercial housing in Taiyuan has been higher than the supply, which is in a state where supply is short of supply. Only in 2011, there was a brief supply and demand close to the same state. This is because of the series of control measures introduced by the state on 2011. It has played an obvious role in controlling housing prices, thus reducing the demand for housing in those years to a certain extent. In terms of the equilibrium of housing supply and demand structure, the housing supply and demand structure of Taiyuan City was in a relatively balanced state in 2006. From 2007 to 2008, there was a general imbalance, but on 2010, the structure of supply and demand was seriously out of balance. Finally, according to the conclusions of empirical analysis, this paper analyzes the problems and causes of the supply and demand equilibrium in Taiyuan housing market. In view of these problems, the article adjusts the total supply and demand. In order to promote the balanced development of the supply and demand of the housing market in Taiyuan, the paper puts forward some suggestions on improving the structure of supply and demand and strengthening the macro-control, so as to achieve the purpose of promoting the healthy development of the housing market in Taiyuan.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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